By Jonathan Spicer, Tuvan Gumrukcu and Maya Gebeily
ISTANBUL/DAMASCUS (Reuters) – Negotiators are zeroing in on a possible deal to resolve one of the crucial explosive questions looming over Syria’s future: the destiny of Kurdish forces that the U.S. considers key allies towards Islamic State however neighbouring Turkey regards as a nationwide safety menace.
Diplomatic and navy negotiators from the US, Turkey, Syria and the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are displaying extra flexibility and endurance than their public statements recommend, a dozen sources advised Reuters, together with 5 immediately concerned within the intensive internet of discussions in latest weeks.
This might set the stage for an accord within the coming months that will see some Kurdish fighters depart Syria’s restive northeast and others introduced underneath the authority of the brand new protection ministry, six of the sources mentioned.
Nonetheless, many thorny points must be resolved, they mentioned. These embrace the best way to combine the SDF alliance’s well-armed and skilled fighters into Syria’s safety framework and administer territory underneath their management, which incorporates key oil and wheat fields.
In an interview with Saudi Arabia’s Asharq Information channel on Tuesday, SDF commander Mazloum Abdi mentioned the alliance’s “basic demand” is for decentralised administration – a possible problem to Syria’s new management, which desires to carry all the nation again underneath the federal government’s authority after ousting Bashar al-Assad final month.
Abdi indicated that the SDF has no intention of dissolving, saying it was open to linking with the protection ministry and working in response to its guidelines, however as “a military bloc”.
Syria’s new protection minister, Murhaf Abu Qasra, rejected that strategy in an interview with Reuters on Sunday, saying the suggestion that the SDF stay one bloc “is not right.”
The previous rebels now in energy in Damascus have mentioned they need all armed teams to combine into Syria’s official forces, underneath a unified command. The SDF, when requested for remark, referred Reuters to its commander’s interview.
How a lot autonomy Kurdish factions retain probably hinges on whether or not incoming U.S. president Donald Trump continues Washington’s longtime assist of its Kurdish allies, in response to diplomats and officers on all sides.
Trump has not spoken publicly about his intentions, together with his plans for some 2,000 U.S. troops stationed in Syria. A Trump consultant didn’t remark.
Any deal additionally will depend on whether or not Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan holds off on a threatened navy offensive towards the Individuals’s Safety Models (YPG), the Kurdish militia that spearheads the SDF alliance.
Ankara views them as an extension of the Kurdistan Staff Occasion (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency towards the Turkish state since 1984 and is deemed a terrorist group by each Turkey and the U.S.
Turkish Overseas Minister Hakan Fidan mentioned this month that Syria’s new authorities “should be given an opportunity to … end the occupation and terror the YPG created”, however he didn’t say how lengthy Ankara would look forward to it to disarm earlier than launching an incursion.
A Turkish Overseas Ministry supply mentioned disarming armed teams and the departure of “foreign terrorist fighters” have been important for Syria’s stability and territorial integrity, so the earlier this occurs the higher.
“We are voicing this expectation of ours in the strongest terms during our contacts with both the United States and the new administration in Damascus,” the supply mentioned.
INTENSIVE TALKS
U.S. and Turkish officers have been holding “very intensive” discussions since rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al Qaeda affiliate, launched a lightning offensive from their northwestern stronghold that deposed Assad on Dec. 8, a senior U.S. diplomat advised Reuters.
The 2 nations share a “common view of where things should end up”, together with a perception that every one overseas fighters ought to exit Syrian territory, the diplomat mentioned, noting Turkish negotiators “have a very high sense of urgency” to settle issues.
Nonetheless, the diplomat, who like another sources requested anonymity to debate delicate negotiations, mentioned the talks have been “hugely complex” and would take time.
Parallel talks are happening between the U.S. and each the SDF and HTS, Turkey and HTS, and the SDF and HTS, officers from all sides say.
A part of a stateless ethnic group straddling Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Armenia and Syria, Kurds had been among the many few winners of the Syrian battle, gaining management over Arab-majority areas because the U.S. partnered with them within the marketing campaign towards Islamic State. They now maintain practically 1 / 4 of the nation.
However Assad’s fall has left Syrian Kurdish factions on the again foot, with Turkey-backed armed teams gaining floor within the northeast and the nation’s new rulers in Damascus pleasant with Ankara.
Turkey, which offered direct assist to some insurgent teams towards Assad, has emerged as one of the crucial influential energy brokers in Syria since his fall. Just like the U.S., it has designated HTS a terrorist group due to its al Qaeda previous, however Ankara is believed to have important sway over the group.
Officers on all sides fear that failure to achieve a ceasefire and longer-term political accord within the northeast might destabilise Syria because it seeks to get better from a 13-year civil conflict that killed tons of of hundreds, displaced hundreds of thousands and drew in nations together with Russia, Iran and Israel.
Dozens of individuals in northern Syria have been reported killed since December in clashes between the Kurdish-led SDF and Turkey’s allies, and in cross-border Turkish airstrikes.
Failure to resolve the destiny of Kurdish factions in Syria might additionally undermine nascent efforts to finish the PKK’s insurgency in Turkey.
The United Nations has warned of “dramatic consequences” for Syria and the area if a political answer will not be discovered within the northeast.
POTENTIAL TRADE-OFFS
U.S. assist for the SDF has been a supply of stress with its NATO ally, Turkey.
Washington views the SDF as a key companion in countering Islamic State, which Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned will attempt to use this era to re-establish capabilities in Syria. The SDF remains to be guarding tens of hundreds of detainees linked to the group.
Erdogan mentioned on Wednesday that Turkey has the facility to “crush” all terrorists in Syria, together with Islamic State and Kurdish militants.
Turkey desires the administration of camps and prisons the place Islamic State detainees are being held transferred to Syria’s new rulers and has provided to assist them. It has additionally demanded that the SDF expel all overseas fighters and senior PKK members from its territory and disarm the remaining members in a approach it could confirm.
Abdi, the SDF commander, has proven flexibility relating to some Turkish calls for, telling Reuters final month that its overseas fighters, together with PKK members, would go away Syria if Turkey agrees to a ceasefire.
The PKK mentioned in an announcement to Reuters on Thursday that it could agree to depart if the SDF maintains management of the northeast or a big function in joint management.
Such assurances are unlikely to fulfill Ankara at a time when the SDF is “trying to stay alive and autonomous” in Syria, Omer Onhon, Turkey’s final ambassador to Damascus, advised Reuters.
In Ankara on Wednesday, Syrian Overseas Minister Asaad Hassan al-Shibani mentioned the intensive U.S.-backed SDF presence was not justified, and the brand new administration wouldn’t permit Syrian land to be a supply of threats to Turkey. Standing subsequent to him, his Turkish counterpart, Fidan, mentioned it was time to place anti-terror pledges into observe.
Abdi advised Asharq Information that he has met with Syria’s de facto chief, Ahmed al-Sharaa, and the 2 sides agreed to arrange a joint navy committee to determine how the SDF would combine with the protection ministry. He described the assembly with Sharaa, who heads HTS, as constructive.
Abu Qasra, the protection minister, accused SDF leaders on Sunday of “procrastinating” on the problem, saying “consolidation of all areas under the new administration … is a right of the Syrian state.”
The brand new management believes that permitting SDF fighters to proceed working as a bloc would “risk destabilisation, including a coup”, a ministry official advised Reuters.
Abdi argued {that a} decentralised administration wouldn’t threaten Syria’s unity, saying the SDF will not be demanding the form of federalism launched in Iraq, the place Kurds have their very own regional authorities.
Some Syrian officers and diplomats say the SDF will probably must relinquish management of serious territory and oil revenues, gained throughout the conflict, as a part of any political settlement.
In return, Kurdish factions could possibly be granted protections for his or her language and tradition inside a decentralised political construction, mentioned Bassam al-Kuwatli, president of the small Syrian Liberal Occasion, which helps minority rights however will not be concerned within the talks.
A senior Syrian Kurdish supply acknowledged that some such trade-offs would probably be wanted however didn’t elaborate.
Abdi advised Asharq Information that the SDF was open to handing over duty for oil sources to the brand new administration, offered the wealth was distributed pretty to all provinces.
Washington has known as for a “managed transition” of the SDF’s function.
The U.S. diplomat mentioned Assad’s ouster opens the door for Washington to ultimately contemplate withdrawing its troops from Syria, although a lot will depend on whether or not trusted forces like its Kurdish allies stay engaged in efforts to counter any Islamic State resurgence.
Trump’s return to the White Home on Monday has raised hopes in Turkey of a beneficial deal, given the rapport he established with Erdogan throughout his first time period.
Trump has spoken approvingly about Erdogan’s function in Syria, calling him a “very smart guy”, and mentioned Turkey would “hold the key” to what occurs there.
“The Americans won’t abandon (the SDF),” mentioned Onhon, Turkey’s former ambassador. “But the arrival of someone as unpredictable as Trump must worry them in a way too.”
