FirstFT: China’s commerce surplus hits file excessive forward of Trump return

Good morning. In at this time’s publication:

• China’s commerce surplus hits file excessive

• Air India tries to win again disgruntled clients

• Hong Kong’s iconic ‘tea restaurants’

China’s commerce surplus with the remainder of the world reached a file of just about $1tn in 2024, official information confirmed yesterday, only a week earlier than Donald Trump returns to the White Home with a vow to impose punitive tariffs on the US’s greatest financial rival.

The $992bn Chinese language commerce surplus, greater than a 3rd of which was with the US, is predicted to gas additional tensions with Washington and different buying and selling companions, who’ve pushed again in opposition to a surge of Chinese language exports.

Economists mentioned the figures benefited from “front-loading” of exports, as producers tried to ship items forward of an anticipated commerce struggle with the incoming Trump administration.

Chinese language producers, in the meantime, have stepped up exports to offset sluggish home demand, with households nonetheless recovering from a three-year property crash on this planet’s second-largest economic system. Learn how Trump’s threatened tariffs may have an effect on these tendencies.

• Associated: Mexico’s authorities yesterday launched a plan to shrink its yawning commerce deficit with China and appeal to funding, in an olive department to the incoming Trump administration.

• AI race: The US is imposing expansive export controls on chips used for synthetic intelligence in an effort to make it tougher for China and different adversaries to get entry to superior expertise with army functions.

Right here’s what else we’re holding tabs on at this time:

• Financial information: India publishes month-to-month wholesale worth index inflation price information.

• India: Area expertise firm Pixxel is ready to launch the nation’s first non-public satellite tv for pc community aboard a SpaceX rocket from California. (Reuters)

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5 extra prime tales

1. China is constructing a brand new class of cellular piers, which may bolster its skill to land an invading power in Taiwan. The six barge-like vessels may assist the Folks’s Liberation Military transport heavy army gear resembling tanks and artillery throughout mudflats or seawalls on to agency floor. Satellite tv for pc photographs present the brand new cellular piers beneath building.

2. EU shipyards are repairing Russian ice-class tankers and providing them dry dock services, enabling Moscow to proceed shifting fuel by means of the Arctic regardless of western sanctions on its power sector. With out the upkeep work, Russia’s Yamal LNG plant would battle to entry essential markets by means of the winter when northern hemisphere fuel costs are at their highest. Right here’s why these actions are usually not sanctioned.

3. US-led mediators have despatched the ultimate draft of a ceasefire proposal to Israel and Hamas after a “breakthrough” in talks over a deal to finish the struggle in Gaza and safe the discharge of hostages. Folks aware of the matter mentioned it left the fighters the closest they’ve been in months to ending the battle. “The next 24 hours will be pivotal,” mentioned one diplomat.

4. Cleveland-Cliffs and Nucor are set to launch a joint bid to amass US Metal simply weeks after US President Joe Biden blocked the $15bn takeover of the Pennsylvania-based group by Japan’s Nippon Metal, mentioned individuals briefed on the matter. Cleveland-Cliffs plans to supply lower than $40 a share to purchase the corporate, considerably beneath the $55 a share that Nippon Metal had agreed to pay final yr.

5. Los Angeles was braced for close to “hurricane force” winds yesterday, which climate forecasters mentioned may fan the devastating wildfires which have swept throughout the US’s second-largest metropolis. As firefighters struggled to include the lethal blazes that continued to rage, the Nationwide Climate service warned the winds may create “explosive fire growth”.

Information in-depth

The chief government of Air India has hailed the service’s progress in an formidable turnaround beneath its Tata Group proprietor, whereas acknowledging the problem of restoring the fame of the previous state-owned nationwide service that Indians like to complain about. “There’s a blessing and a curse to being the national carrier,” mentioned Campbell Wilson, the Singapore Airways veteran employed after Tata purchased Air India in a $2.4bn deal in 2022. Right here’s how Air India is making an attempt to win again clients.

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We’re additionally studying . . . 

• An out-of-the-box thought for China and Trump: Washington and Beijing ought to conduct a joint intervention on the renminbi, writes Mark Sobel, a former US Treasury official.

• Zuckerberg’s cravenness: The person answerable for social media platforms utilized by billions ought to present some ethical braveness, writes Jemima Kelly.

• The place incumbents gained: The international riot in opposition to these in energy doesn’t prolong to growing democracies resembling India and Indonesia, writes Ruchir Sharma.

Chart of the day

Chinese language company income are set to indicate a third consecutive yr of declines in 2024, with the development anticipated to proceed into this yr as deflationary pressures weigh on the world’s second-largest economic system.

Take a break from the information . . . 

Few issues symbolise Hong Kong’s fusion of flavours greater than its iconic cha chaan tengs — or “tea restaurants” — that serve a mixture of western imports alongside Chinese language dishes and native innovations. Hongkonger Jason Chau shared a couple of of his favourites as a part of FT Globetrotter’s information to Hong Kong.