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Roula Khalaf, Editor of the FT, selects her favorite tales on this weekly publication.
The author is president and chief funding strategist at Yardeni Analysis
When the US inventory market was hitting new report highs final 12 months, led by the Magnificent Seven group of expertise corporations, the monetary media and lots of traders extolled “American exceptionalism”. Now, not a lot.
As an alternative, the widespread fear is that the US is in decline because the world’s pre-eminent financial and army energy. On this situation, the exceptionalism has been fuelled with excessively excessive federal authorities deficits which have resulted in a debt-to-GDP ratio exceeding 120 per cent, a fourfold enhance since 1980. The online curiosity outlay on all this debt is monitoring at an annual fee of $1tn.
America relies upon greater than ever on international traders and central banks to finance the federal government’s deficit and to refinance its maturing debt. Nonetheless, within the first 100 days of his second time period within the White Home, President Donald Trump has abruptly turned the US in direction of insurance policies broadly seen as protectionist and isolationist. Consequently, international traders are reconsidering their dedication to its capital markets. As well as, they’re questioning whether or not the Treasury bond market and the greenback are shedding their standing as havens in a risky world.
So the decline of the greenback this 12 months has been seen as affirmation that Trump’s “new world disorder” will hurt America’s pre-eminence. It could even be a harbinger of a US debt disaster if foreigners lose their confidence within the nation.
That is all a really miserable narrative. It could even be an absurdly alarmist view that’s merely an overreaction to the latest correction within the S&P 500. The sell-off was actually attributable to Trump’s tariff turmoil. However, now with the advantage of hindsight, everybody agrees that inventory valuations have been stretched firstly of this 12 months, particularly for the Magnificent Seven. In different phrases, the inventory market was cruising for a bruising. Plenty of the latest ache skilled by the tech giants got here as traders questioned their excessive spending on synthetic intelligence infrastructure.
The angst mounted shortly when the US 10-year Treasury bond yield spiked from 4.00 to 4.50 per cent in a few days in early April after Trump launched his tariff regime on “liberation day”, as he dubbed it. The rise in bond yields spooked the Trump administration, main the president to postpone the tariff will increase.
On the similar time that inventory and bond costs have been falling, the broadly adopted Greenback Index (DXY) fell quickly by virtually 10 per cent. America was not distinctive, in accordance with the doomsayers. Then once more, monetary markets will be risky with out confirming that the tip is close to for American exceptionalism. Current occasions will be defined fairly merely and with out implying any dire penalties. Think about the next:
• Since early final 12 months, DXY has been extremely correlated with the value of the Roundhill Magnificent Seven ETF. US Treasury knowledge reveals that international traders piled into US shares at a report tempo final 12 months. When open-source DeepSeek R1 was launched on January 20 this 12 months, traders misplaced their confidence in corporations that had been spending so much on AI infrastructure, together with the Magazine-7. DXY fell as world traders offered them and allotted extra of their portfolios to Chinese language and European shares.
• DXY is an odd duck. It isn’t a trade-weighted greenback index, as broadly assumed. It’s primarily based on a basket of six main foreign exchange — however their weights don’t change. It’s principally pushed by the euro, which has a 57.6 per cent weight.
• On a weekly foundation, the Federal Reserve board releases every day measures of a “broad” trade-weighted greenback index. DXY is often extremely correlated with the Fed’s greenback index relative to superior international economies. However on a year-to-date foundation, DXY is down 8.3 per cent, whereas the Fed’s broad index is down 4.8 per cent.
This all suggests that is at the least partially a dollar-euro story, as US shares are offered to purchase European ones.
It’s true that the US authorities has issued a report quantity of debt. That makes the US Treasury market the most important, most liquid, and (nonetheless) the most secure capital market on this planet. The greenback ought to stay the pre-eminent reserve foreign money. International traders would possibly quickly begin shopping for the Magnificent Seven once more now that Alphabet, Meta and Microsoft reported nice earnings for the primary quarter of 2025. If that’s the case, that ought to increase DXY.
