Turkey appears set to play an outsize function in shaping the brand new Syria after Assad

ISTANBUL — Because the world watches Syria grapple with the aftermath of Bashar al-Assad’s brutal regime and the formation of a brand new authorities, one nation has emerged as having nice affect over the brand new Syria: its neighbor to the north, Turkey.

In a press convention on Monday, President-elect Donald Trump stated he believed that Turkey was behind Assad’s downfall.

“Turkey did an unfriendly takeover without a lot of lives being lost,” Trump stated. “I think Turkey is going to hold the key to Syria.”

The Turkish authorities has not publicly commented on Trump’s remarks.

What was Turkey’s function within the Syrian civil conflict?

Earlier than Syria’s civil conflict erupted nearly 14 years in the past, Turkey loved secure relations with the nation. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Assad bought alongside nicely, to the extent that their households even vacationed collectively as soon as. However after Assad’s brutal crackdown on peaceable protesters in 2011, Erdogan lower ties and put his intelligence and army assets behind insurgent teams combating Assad.

“Turkey’s goal was, of course, at all costs unseating Bashar al-Assad,” stated political analyst Soli Ozel, who teaches at Kadir Has College in Istanbul.

Turkey, a NATO member that shares a protracted southern border with Syria, opened its doorways to the biggest variety of Syrian refugees of any nation, in accordance with United Nations knowledge — peaking at greater than 3.7 million in 2021 — a lot of whom had been linked with opposition teams and below menace from the Assad regime.

However by 2018, as Assad gave the impression to be profitable the civil conflict — with the assistance of Russia, Iran and Iranian-backed Lebanese militia Hezbollah — Turkey’s place got here with a worth. It confronted home and financial difficulties, with the general public blaming the Syrian refugees. And the nation additionally confronted safety threats alongside its border with Syria.

Earlier than the insurgent teams moved on Assad’s military in late November, Turkey’s objectives had shifted to making sure that insurgent enclaves like Idlib in Syria’s north had been secure, in an effort to forestall extra refugee inflow into Turkey, in accordance with Turkish Overseas Minister Hakan Fidan.

“In Idlib, around 4 million Syrians lived under the control of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham,” he stated in an interview Sunday with Saudi Arabia’s Al-Hadath TV, referring to the Islamist group, often known as HTS, that led fighters who toppled Assad and is now main Syria. “There was always a risk of these people coming to Turkey during times of crisis.”

He added, “To prevent these crises and maintain stability, we have remained in coordination with these groups, and through this process, we had the opportunity to get to know them.”

Within the months earlier than the shock insurgent takeover of Assad-controlled areas, the Turkish authorities was below heavy home strain to resolve the refugee disaster. Opposition politicians noticed the federal government’s assist of insurgent teams as a strategic mistake. Erdogan’s administration had even begun to discover the potential of mending ties with Assad, nevertheless it by no means got here to fruition.

Now, after greater than a decade, there is a sense of vindication in Ankara, Turkey’s capital, that it wasn’t all for nothing.

“A lot of people reflect on this in the sense that Turkey is a winner. It has proximity, it has influence. It has troops more than anything else,” Ozel stated.

What sort of affect will Turkey have on the brand new Syrian management?

Turkey is already visibly lively in Syria. The Turkish Embassy in Damascus is up and operating. And Turkey’s intelligence chief paid a go to to Damascus final week and met with the chief of HTS, Ahmed al-Sharaa — previously identified by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohammed al-Jolani — who’s now the de facto chief of the brand new Syrian administration.

In his interview with Al Hadath TV, Fidan stated that Turkey has been sending messages from Western and regional nations to the brand new Syrian management in an effort to average HTS. The group fashioned as an affiliate of al-Qaida in 2011. Turkey, america and the United Nations Safety Council have designated HTS as a terrorist group. However since defeating Assad, the group has portrayed itself as extra average and inclusive of different religions and minorities, with encouragement from the Turkish authorities.

“There were certain principles that most parties seemed to agree on. These include preventing terrorist organizations from benefiting from Damascus in the new era, ensuring good treatment of minorities, especially Christians, Kurds, Alevis and Turkmen, and establishing an inclusive government,” Fidan stated.

In an interview with Turkish newspaper Yeni Safak on Wednesday, HTS chief Sharaa stated there could be “strategic relations” between the 2 nations.

“Of the many countries Syrians sought refuge in, Turkey welcomed them and respected them the most. I hope that Syria won’t forget this kindness,” Sharaa stated.

He added that Syria’s insurgent takeover was a win for Turkey: “This victory is not only the victory of the Syrian people but also of the Turkish people.”

In the end, analysts say, Turkey would not management HTS and lots of questions stay about what the brand new Syrian administration will form as much as be. These are potential challenges for the Turkish authorities, in accordance with Ozel.

“If HTS gains more power, how much more amenable is it going to be to Turkey’s suggestions, recommendations? That remains to be seen,” Ozel stated.

However consultants say the brand new Syrian leaders should depend on Turkey to assist them set up public order, kind establishments and supply assets, like water and electrical energy. With a lot of Syria destroyed, Turkish building firms are prone to search a lead function in reconstruction.

“We trust that Turkey will transfer its experience in economic development to Syria,” Sharaa advised Yeni Safak newspaper.

Then there may be the matter of the Syrian refugees in Turkey. Lots of them now converse Turkish fluently and have enterprise relations and different ties with Turkey, which might present extra technique of affect for the Turkish authorities, ought to they return to Syria.

What are Turkey’s objectives in Syria now?

Laying out their objectives in latest media interviews, senior Turkish officers have stated their first precedence is to dismantle the Kurdish fighter group in Syria often called the YPG.

However the YPG is a major a part of a Kurdish coalition — the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) — that america supplied with weapons to assist combat in opposition to the Islamic State group.

Turkey says the YPG is the Syrian arm of the Kurdistan Employees’ Social gathering (PKK), a separatist group that has fought Turkey for over 4 a long time and is listed as a terrorist group by Turkey and the U.S.

Turkish officers stated they’re asking the U.S. to reassess its place with the YPG.

Thus far, U.S. officers haven’t signaled any adjustments to their coverage of supporting the Kurdish coalition.

On Tuesday, State Division spokesperson Matthew Miller stated a U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Turkey and the Kurdish coalition forces in Manbij has been prolonged till the top of the week.

Miller stated the U.S. understands Turkey has “legitimate concerns” about among the fighters in Syria and is speaking to Turkish authorities “to find a path forward.”

Turkish officers stated their different goal is the formation of a secure and united Syria.

“We want both a civil and democratic state,” Overseas Minister Fidan stated.

Turkey’s protection minister additionally supplied army assist and coaching to the brand new leaders of Syria.

“I think Turkey will be there to help with the new administration that will be formed there,” stated Mustafa Kibaroglu, director of graduate research in political science and worldwide relations at MEF College in Istanbul. “Because what happens there has a direct bearing on Turkish prosperity, security, everything, so we cannot just turn a blind eye.”

Will Turkey play a much bigger function within the area as nicely?

Analysts anticipate Turkey to be influential within the Center East, however to not search hegemony in the way in which that Iran has with its proxies Hezbollah in Syria and Lebanon and the Houthis in Yemen.

Turkish Overseas Minister Fidan appeared to ship a message to Center Jap leaders that outlined Turkey’s imaginative and prescient for the area.

“By standing shoulder to shoulder, we must establish our own interests and order in the region,” Fidan stated within the TV interview on Sunday.

“We do not want Iranian domination in the region, nor do we want Turkish or Arab domination,” he added.

Kibaroglu, of MEF College’s graduate college, agrees. “We have seen how things may turn up in the negative sense for those who try to dominate the region,” he stated. “We have seen the role Iran played especially since 1990s and now they had to withdraw their troops and paramilitaries and proxies to a great extent.”

Analysts say among the Turkish public is cautious of deeper involvement within the Center East.

“My hunch is that the Turkish security elites have learned their lessons from the earlier period when that [domination] was very much on their agenda,” Ozel stated. “Turkey can be very influential as an actor, but within limits. And if it manages the situation well, it will benefit heavily.”