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Issues over the sturdiness of the US-Japan alliance and the specter of tariffs will loom massive in Tokyo this week as Donald Trump’s defence secretary visits for high-level talks.
Pete Hegseth will meet defence minister Gen Nakatani on Sunday to debate deeper navy collaboration in a gathering that Nakatani mentioned would have “great significance” for Japan’s safety. Japanese officers mentioned the talks might cowl whether or not Tokyo would elevate its deliberate spending on defence.
Hegseth’s journey comes a month after Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba met the US president on the White Home. Tokyo considered that assembly as a giant success, however officers and international coverage consultants mentioned Japan, as with US allies from Canada to Germany, has grown extra nervous about their alliance.
“It’s an unsettled time in Tokyo, and the euphoria over Ishiba’s visit to the White House in February is a distant memory,” mentioned Christopher Johnstone, a former prime Nationwide Safety Council now at The Asia Group consultancy.
Whereas Tokyo is anxious about Trump imposing tariffs on Japan on April 2 — when the US president has vowed to unveil levies on buying and selling companions — officers are additionally nervous due to latest feedback from the administration about burden sharing.
“Secretary Hegseth’s visit this week will spotlight the fundamental question of whether a meaningful alliance agenda is possible with the threat of tariffs looming in the background,” Johnstone added.
In Washington, Trump and Ishiba vowed to “pursue a new golden age for US-Japan relations”. Weeks later, Trump made Tokyo anxious by resurrecting earlier considerations in regards to the nations’ mutual defence treaty.
“We have a great relationship with Japan, but we have an interesting deal with Japan that we have to protect them, but they don’t have to protect us,” Trump mentioned.
One Japanese official mentioned Tokyo was dealing with a troublesome time as a result of among the nation’s assumptions in regards to the alliance in latest a long time “suddenly look like they are not supported by the language coming out of the White House”.
He mentioned officers in Tokyo have been splitting into one camp that believed any potential issues for the alliance have been additional sooner or later, and a second that believed the alliance was already in a critical disaster.
“It is very hard to say that you can definitely rely on the US now, and as soon as you allow that thought to exist, you have to admit that Japan needs to do a lot more to defend itself,” the official mentioned.
In one other dangerous omen, Elbridge Colby, Trump’s nominee for under-secretary of defence, mentioned Japan ought to enhance defence spending past the present goal of two per cent of GDP by 2027. George Glass, the nominee for US ambassador to Japan, mentioned Washington would speak to Tokyo about paying extra to defray the price of retaining American troops within the nation.
In an interview, Japan’s finance minister Katsunobu Kato mentioned Tokyo would “relentlessly look into ways to reinforce deterrence and response capabilities at its own initiative”. However setting a goal now can be untimely, he added.
“[Setting] a numerical target first is not how it works,” Kato advised the Monetary Occasions. “We will have to take into consideration how the security model will evolve over the next 10 years, and we will add up necessary and concrete defence spending that will be necessary for Japan over the next 10 years.”
Ken Weinstein, a Japan professional on the Hudson Institute, mentioned Trump was placing extra strain on Japan than in his first time period, when he developed a passion for then prime minister Shinzo Abe.
“Trump’s deep respect for his late friend, Shinzo Abe, makes him instinctively sympathetic to Japan. But the Trump 2.0 agenda makes significantly higher demands of our allies,” he mentioned. “Trump is asking Japan to step up on a number of issues — investment, tariffs and Alaskan LNG — in order to turn Japan into our closest partner.”
US media not too long ago mentioned the Pentagon may rethink an present plan to improve the alliance with Japan to bolster joint operational planning. This raised eyebrows in Tokyo, however individuals accustomed to the state of affairs instructed it was a routine analysis by an incoming administration.
“After the president questioned the logic of the security treaty earlier this month, Tokyo will be looking for an affirmation of the US commitment to Japan’s defence — including next steps in strengthening the command relationship between US and Japanese forces,” mentioned Johnstone at The Asia Group.
Japan was surprised final week when Trump mentioned that the US would promote a toned-down model of the F-47, a brand new fighter jet being developed by Boeing, to allies as a result of “someday maybe they’re not our allies”.
“In the past, Japan would have taken a phrase like that and guessed or hoped that Japan was not included in the theoretical list of non-reliable allies,” the Japanese official mentioned. “The difficulty now is that we just don’t know how to translate what is being said.”
