Donald Trump’s sacking of the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ boss after a grim jobs report earlier this month sparked investor fears that he was politicising the world’s most intently watched financial information.
Trump’s choose to steer the BLS, EJ Antoni, a fierce loyalist and cheerleader for the president’s tariffs and financial technique, has solely deepened the anxiousness.
“The hope was that he would pick someone . . . who people would have trust in and could lead the BLS in an appropriate way, with relevant experience and, ideally, not hyper-partisan,” mentioned Stan Veuger, senior fellow on the right-leaning American Enterprise Institute think-tank. “EJ Antoni is really the opposite of that.”
“Even the people who may be somewhat sympathetic to his economic policy views don’t think he’s qualified,” added Veuger.
Trump nominated Antoni, an economist on the rightwing Heritage Basis — the think-tank behind the Challenge 2025 blueprint for Trump’s second time period — to the BLS job on Monday.
The choose got here lower than two weeks after Trump fired Erika McEntarfer and claimed, with out citing any proof, that she had “rigged” the July jobs report that confirmed the labour market to be weaker than thought.
Trump mentioned Antoni, who will have to be accepted by the US Senate, would “ensure that the Numbers released are HONEST and ACCURATE”.
Even economists on the political proper doubt {that a} man they characterise as an inexperienced stooge of the president will fulfil that mission.
“The sad thing is that there are countless competent, respected conservative economists (especially at universities) who could do a terrific job running BLS,” wrote Jessica Riedl, a former Heritage fellow now on the conservative Manhattan Institute.
“But no credible economist would take a job in which you’d get fired for publishing accurate data.”
The BLS commissioner runs an organisation of about 2,000 staff who produce a month-to-month jobs report and the buyer value index inflation determine. The 2 experiences are among the many most necessary information factors for world traders attempting to learn the well being of the world’s largest economic system and are used for all the things from setting US pension payouts to Federal Reserve coverage.
Antoni has described BLS information as “BS” and beforehand advised it ought to scrap the roles report. When Fox Information drew consideration to a few of these feedback on Tuesday, the greenback misplaced some worth.
The BLS job has typically gone to candidates with statistical experience, garnering them bipartisan assist. Former commissioner McEntarfer, who had spent 20 years on the US Census Bureau earlier than taking up the BLS function, handed the Senate in an 86-8 vote in early 2024, with assist from vice-president JD Vance and secretary of state Marco Rubio.
Trump picked one other former Heritage economist, William Seashore, in his first time period, however his choice introduced far much less concern.
“People were concerned about Beach, but it wasn’t anything like this. I mean people are really upset,” mentioned Philippa Dunne, a labour market economist at TLR Analytics.
“It’s that the rest of the world is not going to trust our data. And if they don’t trust us, they’re not going to lend us money.”
Antoni, who accomplished a PhD in economics at Northern Illinois College in 2020, has been an ardent supporter of the president and his insurance policies.
He has slammed critics as “naysayers” and “leftwing apologist[s]”. He claimed, echoing Trump, that the BLS was “grossly — and consistently — overstating” jobs development within the Biden years.
He has additionally echoed the president’s complaints about Federal Reserve chair Jay Powell, saying he had “conspired to create the worst inflation in more than four decades”.
“If anyone ever deserved to lose his or her job, it’s Powell,” Antoni wrote in July.
Veuger on the AEI advised fealty to the president was a most important motive for Trump’s choose.
“Their bench of people they think of as loyal enough and who have an econ PhD is pretty thin,” he mentioned.
Taylor Rogers, a spokesperson for the White Home, mentioned Trump had picked Antoni for his “education and vast experience as an economist”, noting that he had “frequently testified before Congress on economic issues and his research has been featured by many think-tanks and advocacy groups”.
Some economists are sanguine about Antoni’s nomination, saying it might be tough for any BLS chief on their very own to compromise the info.
“The BLS has a template of how they collect data and report it,” mentioned Steve Hanke, a professor at Johns Hopkins College who served as an financial adviser to Ronald Reagan. “Whoever is at the top is pretty much irrelevant. The bureaucracy and the template dictate what goes on.”
Hanke added: “The idea that you can blatantly manipulate the data is frankly just rubbish.”
But when the market doubts the independence of Trump’s BLS it might additionally simply drive a shift to personal suppliers, mentioned some analysts.
“My sense here is that the potential appointment and confirmation of EJ Antoni creates conditions whereby investors and market participants will begin to doubt the veracity and reliability of BLS data,” mentioned Joe Brusuelas, chief economist at RSM.
“One should expect demand for private-label data to increase . . . [it’s] going to become quite the cottage industry going forward.”
Derek Tang, economist at LH Meyer, warned of a state of affairs akin to the cable TV and web revolutions, with individuals cherry-picking sources to match their pre-existing views.
“Everyone will be creating their own truth,” he mentioned.
Further reporting by Ian Hodgson in Washington
