We collect cookies to analyze our website traffic and performance; we never collect any personal data. Cookie Policy
Accept
The Tycoon Herald
  • Trending
  • World
  • Politics
  • Business
    • Business
    • Economy
    • Real Estate
    • Money
    • Crypto / NFT
  • Innovation
  • Lifestyle
    • Lifestyle
    • Food
    • Travel
    • Fashion
    • Leadership
  • Health
  • Sports
  • Entertainment
Reading: The Scale Has Tipped: Is Manhattan Real Estate Overbought?
Sign In
The Tycoon HeraldThe Tycoon Herald
Font ResizerAa
Search
  • Trending
  • World
  • Politics
  • Business
    • Business
    • Economy
    • Real Estate
    • Money
    • Crypto / NFT
  • Innovation
  • Lifestyle
    • Lifestyle
    • Food
    • Travel
    • Fashion
    • Leadership
  • Health
  • Sports
  • Entertainment
Have an existing account? Sign In
Follow US
© Tycoon Herald. All Rights Reserved.
The Scale Has Tipped: Is Manhattan Real Estate Overbought?
The Tycoon Herald > Real Estate > The Scale Has Tipped: Is Manhattan Real Estate Overbought?
Real Estate

The Scale Has Tipped: Is Manhattan Real Estate Overbought?

Tycoon Herald
By Tycoon Herald 6 Min Read
Share
SHARE

If the pent-up demand was measured at roughly 4,500 units, then the 4,900 surplus of deals through … [+] December 2021 effectively balances the scale. This suggests that, as the market enters 2022, it will do so without the tailwind of sidelined buyers who are ready to enter the market.

getty

Last year was one for the record books for the Manhattan real estate market, and the surge in deal volume during 2021 was primarily due to pent-up demand. The fear of missing out increased the number of expected buyers when the market reopened in the summer of 2020, and fears subsequently subsided. 

Contents
Gauging Manhattan DemandThe market’s recoveryHas the surplus run its course?

A deeper look suggests that if the suppressed appetite for Manhattan real estate was to blame, it has since been sated. But before we can come to that conclusion, it’s important to consider what the usual level of demand would be, and what should have been expected in 2020. 

ADVERTISEMENT

Gauging Manhattan Demand

Since real estate is seasonal, a good way to gauge general demand is by looking at a five-year average of contracts signed for any given month. Then, to smooth over peaks and troughs, a running three-month average of that general demand can be compared to the actual demand seen in those months. 

And because 2020 started on a positive note — with nearly 10% more deals in January and February 2020 versus January and February 2019 — we’ll add an extra 10% to each month in order to arrive at an adjusted expectation. Finally, a surplus or deficit can be quantified by comparing the expected number of deals to the actual deals. 

As seen below, the surplus/deficit from January 2012 through January 2020 is relatively balanced. It mostly ranges above and below zero, occasionally breaching 30%, but never crossing 50%. That relationship ended with the pandemic lockdown in early 2020. 

ADVERTISEMENT

During that lockdown, real estate was deemed non-essential by then-Governor Cuomo, and as such, buyers were prevented from making purchases. As a result, by May 2020, the deficit had reached -84% of the usual demand. By the time demand had returned to its average level in November 2020, the deficit, as counted in units, was approximately 4,500. 

Percent of Manhattan Demand Surplus/Deficit | 2012-2021

UrbanDigs

The market’s recovery

The market’s recovery gathered strength quickly. December 2020 was already showing a surplus, and the momentum continued through 2021. The chart below shows the end of the deficit months in late 2020, followed by the beginning of the surplus months that characterized the frenzy of 2021. 

ADVERTISEMENT

By April, the surplus stood at 82% above usual demand. In terms of units, the overall surplus through the end of 2021 measured nearly 4,900 units.  

Percent of Manhattan Demand Surplus/Deficit | September 2020-December 2021

UrbanDigs

The chart below shows the approximate shortage or surplus of deals by month from January 2020 through December 2021.

Monthly Manhattan Demand Surplus/Deficit by Units | Contracts Signed, 2020-2021

UrbanDigs

Has the surplus run its course?

If the pent-up demand was measured at roughly 4,500 units, then the 4,900 surplus of deals through December 2021 effectively balances the scale. This suggests that, as the market enters 2022, it will do so without the tailwind of sidelined buyers who are ready to enter the market. 

ADVERTISEMENT

Moreover, a look at the length of surplus/deficit streaks since 2012 also suggests that the current surplus may have run its course. Previously, the longest surplus had been from October 2012 to August 2013 — an eleven-month streak. The current streak is already at 15 months and counting. 

Length of Surplus/Deficit Streaks | Months, 2012-2021

UrbanDigs

While many predict a continued bull market for Manhattan real estate and are therefore willing to jump in, such thinking might reflect the hot-hand fallacy, the thinking that what happened in the past will continue to happen in the future. With any pent-up demand appearing to be fulfilled, and the surplus streak looking tenuous, today’s market participants should be prepared for change. To put it plainly: Manhattan is overbought.

ADVERTISEMENT

In transitory periods such as this, the goal for sellers is to reduce days on market, especially considering a new wave of listings is expected later this quarter. To do that, sellers should re-examine their prices, making sure they are at or just below market, keep a close eye on their online and open houses traffic stats, follow up with every interested buyer, and be prepared to negotiate. 

The goal for buyers is to find a great home at a good price. With more listings coming soon, buyers should be aware that Manhattan remains in a seller’s market, so low-ball offers are non-starters. Instead, buyers should view the possible slowdown in activity as a window of opportunity where they have choices and increased negotiating leverage.

You Might Also Like

Bungalows Del Mar Office by Harbor Associates in Del Mar, California Defies National Office Trends and Has Rare Vacancy Come to Market

The Federal Reserve cuts rates of interest by one other quarter level. This is what which means for you

Federal Reserve is more likely to lower rates of interest subsequent week. Here is what meaning for you

5 housing market predictions for 2025, in accordance with economists

A Florida ‘condominium cliff’ is coming as house owners take care of fallout from 2021 Surfside collapse

TAGGED:Real EstateThe Forbes Journal
Share This Article
Facebook Twitter Email Copy Link Print
Mushroom Tacos | Straightforward Vegan Taco Recipe – TwoSleevers
Food

Mushroom Tacos | Straightforward Vegan Taco Recipe – TwoSleevers

PUBLISHED August 4, 2025· MODIFIED August 4, 2025 · by the writer listed within the recipe card 1296 phrases. · About 7 minutes to learn this text.· This put up…

By Tycoon Herald 11 Min Read
Pamela Anderson & Liam Neeson Share Lip Balm Second With Andy Cohen
August 4, 2025
Movies of Israeli hostages in Gaza improve strain on Netanyahu for a ceasefire
August 4, 2025
Benjamin Sesko switch information: Man Utd anticipated to make formal provide for RB Leipzig ahead after Newcastle bid
August 4, 2025
Choose Declines to Block Nationwide Science Basis From Ending DEI-Associated Grants
August 4, 2025

You Might Also Like

Mortgage refinance demand surges 27%, as rates of interest drop for the third straight week
Real Estate

Mortgage refinance demand surges 27%, as rates of interest drop for the third straight week

By Tycoon Herald 3 Min Read
‘Unverifiable revenue’ can restrict your mortgage choices — here is find out how to get round it
Real Estate

‘Unverifiable revenue’ can restrict your mortgage choices — here is find out how to get round it

By Tycoon Herald 6 Min Read
AI startups are snatching up San Francisco places of work, utilizing Zoom fatigue to recruit expertise
Real Estate

AI startups are snatching up San Francisco places of work, utilizing Zoom fatigue to recruit expertise

By Tycoon Herald 11 Min Read

More Popular from Tycoon Herald

MEET THE FATHER OF COADUNATE ECONOMIC MODEL
BusinessTrending

MEET THE FATHER OF COADUNATE ECONOMIC MODEL

By Tycoon Herald 2 Min Read
Woman Sentenced to 7 Days in Jail for Walking in Yellowstone’s Thermal Area

Woman Sentenced to 7 Days in Jail for Walking in Yellowstone’s Thermal Area

By Tycoon Herald
Empowering Fintech Innovation: Swiss Options Partners with Stripe to Transform Digital Payments
InnovationTrending

Empowering Fintech Innovation: Swiss Options Partners with Stripe to Transform Digital Payments

By Tycoon Herald 7 Min Read
Real Estate

Off Dubai’s Shore, A $20-Million Villa Offers The Luxury Of Seclusion

The villa is one of 18 in the gated Sea Mirror community on Jumeirah Bay Island,…

By Tycoon Herald
Sports

Soccer (Sky Sports activities)

Soccer Fixtures | Sky Sports activities Fixtures Information Choose a group All Groups Arsenal Aston Villa…

By Tycoon Herald
Trending

U.S. Blew Up a C.I.A. Post Used to Evacuate At-Risk Afghans

A controlled detonation by American forces that was heard throughout Kabul has destroyed Eagle Base, the…

By Tycoon Herald
Leadership

Northern Lights: 17 Best Places To See Them In 2021

Who doesn’t dream of seeing the northern lights? According to a new survey conducted by Hilton, 59% of Americans…

By Tycoon Herald
Real Estate

Exploring Bigfork, Montana: A Little Town On A Big Pond

Bigfork, Montana, offers picturesque paradise in the northern wilderness. National Parks Realty With the melting of…

By Tycoon Herald
Leadership

Leaders Need To Know Character Could Be Vital For Corporate Culture

Disney's unique culture encourages young employees to turn up for work with smiles on their faces.…

By Tycoon Herald
The Tycoon Herald

Tycoon Herald: Your instant connection to breaking stories and live updates. Stay informed with our real-time coverage across politics, tech, entertainment, and more. Your reliable source for 24/7 news.

Company

  • About Us
  • Newsroom Policies & Standards
  • Diversity & Inclusion
  • Careers
  • Media & Community Relations
  • WP Creative Group
  • Accessibility Statement

Contact Us

  • Contact Us
  • Contact Customer Care
  • Advertise
  • Licensing & Syndication
  • Request a Correction
  • Contact the Newsroom
  • Send a News Tip
  • Report a Vulnerability

Terms of Use

  • Digital Products Terms of Sale
  • Terms of Service
  • Privacy Policy
  • Cookie Settings
  • Submissions & Discussion Policy
  • RSS Terms of Service
  • Ad Choices
© Tycoon Herald. All Rights Reserved.
Welcome Back!

Sign in to your account

Lost your password?