A Syrian insurgent fighter sits exterior the arrivals gate of the airport in Aleppo, Syria, on Monday. Syrian rebels from the group HTS captured Aleppo, the second largest metropolis in Syria, as a part of a lightning offensive in current days. The rebels caught the Syrian navy off-guard, and at a time when Syria’s allies, Iran, Russia and Hezbollah, had been pre-occupied with different conflicts.
Omar Albam/AP
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Omar Albam/AP
In a matter of days, Syrian rebels captured the main metropolis of Aleppo, seized further territory within the surrounding countryside, and refocused worldwide consideration on what was the largely dormant Syrian civil struggle.
Now the query is whether or not the rebels can maintain the strain on Syrian President Bashar Assad, or whether or not his military can maintain the road and mount a counterattack.
A sequence of upheavals within the area
From afar, the fast advance by the rebels, referred to as Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, appeared to return out of nowhere.
But occasions in Syria are linked to a collection of upheavals within the Center East over the previous yr, starting with the Israel-Hamas struggle in Gaza. Collectively, they’ve destabilized the area and helped create the opening for HTS fighters to launch their offensive final week.
Syria’s authorities military is now making an attempt to regroup with assist from Syria’s conventional allies, which embody Russia, Iran and the Lebanese group Hezbollah.
Russian and Syrian planes are finishing up airstrikes in and round Aleppo. Iran is making an attempt to rally diplomatic assist, together with a Tuesday assembly between the international ministers of Iran and Turkey. Whereas Iran has lengthy backed Assad, Turkey has supported numerous insurgent factions combating Assad within the multi-sided civil struggle that erupted in 2011.
After a number of years of restricted combating in Syria, it appeared the worst of the struggle was over even when the nation remained deeply divided amongst a number of teams. The Syrian authorities holds the capital Damascus together with many of the south and west, whereas numerous opposition factions management a lot of the north and the east.
Towards this backdrop, the assault by the Palestinian group Hamas on southern Israel on Oct. 7 of final yr set in movement a number of conflicts which are nonetheless enjoying out. The day after that Hamas incursion, Oct. 8, 2023, Hezbollah joined the fray, firing rockets into northern Israel as a present of assist for Hamas.
The combating saved spreading, with Houthi rebels in Yemen firing on business ships transiting the Pink Sea, and sometimes launching long-distance drones and missiles at Israel. Earlier this yr, Israel and Iran exchanged long-range missile and drone hearth.
Syria’s chief lays low
Amid all this turmoil, Syria’s Assad saved a low profile. The Syrian chief is accused of widespread abuses and atrocities through the nation’s civil struggle. However over the previous yr, he is mentioned little or no, shunned new navy offensives towards opposition forces, and usually sought to keep away from direct involvement within the wider regional conflicts.
However in current days, struggle has returned with a vengenance to Syria, the nation Assad and his late father, Hafez Assad, have dominated for greater than a half-century.
Paul Salem, who’s primarily based in Beirut with the Center East Institute, famous that Syria’s three predominant supporters — Iran, Russia and Hezbollah — have all been weakened and distracted by different conflicts.
Iran and Hezbollah have been locked in confrontation with Israel, whereas Russia has been slowed down with its struggle in Ukraine.
“Israel has dealt a staggering blow to Hezbollah in Lebanon,” mentioned Salem. “Hezbollah was one of the main fighting forces that saved the Assad regime from collapse in 2015. They are no longer really available to do that.”
Iran, in the meantime, has suffered a collection of setbacks as its proxies, Hezbollah and Hamas, have fared poorly of their wars with Israel. Iran has additionally been weakened by Israeli strikes that focused the nation’s restricted air defenses, leaving it weak to any future Israeli strikes.
With Syria’s allies in disarry, the rebels determined to pounce final week and scored a surprisingly swift victory in Aleppo. Syrian authorities forces battled the rebels for months in 2016 to reclaim the devastated metropolis. Final week, the Syrian military shortly retreated and left town.
Syrian opposition fighters stand on a navy airplane Monday on the Al-Nayrab navy airport exterior the northwestern metropolis of Aleppo. The rebels captured town and surrounding areas in current days. The Syrian navy is now making an attempt to regroup.
Omar Albam/AP
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Omar Albam/AP
“The Assad regime forces really melted away and there were not a lot of supportive forces to hold that line,” mentioned Salem.
Gauging the power of the rebels
HTS has not been advancing this week because it was final week, and analysts say the insurgent fighters could discover themselves stretched too skinny if the Syrian navy regroup and counterattack. Syria’s allies are attempting to help.
“The Russian air force is already pounding rebel-held areas. Iran is already moving allied militia forces. I wouldn’t be surprised to read reports that Hezbollah is moving fighters from Lebanon to Syria as well,” mentioned Salem. But it surely’s not clear, he says, how a lot assist these allies can present.
As well as, a number of different opposition factions are additionally energetic in Syria, additional complicating any efforts to resolve the battle.
Additionally, the U.S. navy nonetheless has round 900 troops in Syria, largely within the distant northeast to assist shield the Kurdish inhabitants. The U.S. troops aren’t straight concerned within the present combating, although they periodically come below assault by militias again by Iran.
The Biden administration has not taken sides within the newest combating. The U.S. classifies HTS as a terrorist group and can be extremely essential of Assad.
