1) The collapse of the SNP. They misplaced half 1,000,000 votes (42% of their 2019 whole) and with it 39 seats. Its remaining 9 seats usually are not remotely secure – 7 of them are within the prime 10 most marginal seats in Scotland.
2) The collapse of the Tories. They misplaced practically 400k votes – greater than half their 2019 whole. That solely misplaced them one seat vs 2019, however they’re simply not as highly effective as they had been. 15 misplaced deposits (from zero final day trip), and from being 2nd in 18 seats final time that’s decreased to five.
3) The sensational return of Labour. The one celebration to extend their vote from final time (by 66%!!!), they exploded from a single seat in 2019 to 37 in 2024, selecting up seats like East Renfrewshire from third. Labour didn’t want the Scottish seats to safe a majority, however successful essentially the most votes in Scotland will probably be an enormous bonus to the Starmer authorities.
4) The LibDems overperformed, selecting up 10.5% of seats from 9.7% of the vote. A slight improve in proportion share, which on a decrease nationwide turnout meant fewer votes received (234k vs 263k in 2019). Seats received up from 4 to six (although on the brand new boundaries we notionally solely began the evening holding 2 seats). Our concentrating on was first charge, with 28 misplaced deposits (not mine!) to go alongside taking again seats beforehand held by Jo Swinson and Charles Kennedy
5) Alba are nowhere. Lower than 12k votes between their 19 candidates, with none of their candidates who had been sitting MPs getting wherever close to retaining their deposit.
For the SNP, their efficiency was totally catastrophic. Leadership schisms diverted them away from their claimed mandate for Indyref2, however they did make the GE a pseudo-referendum, with independence on “page 1, line 1” of their manifesto. The mass rejection of the SNP is – on their very own phrases – a mass rejection of independence.
Worse is the monetary impression on the celebration. Starved of donors, mired in finance scandals, the celebration now has its funding from the hated Westminster completely gutted. Its collapse in each MPs and seats means dropping practically a cool £1m in brief cash money, in addition to the ten% of wage it tithed from the 39 MPs it now not has.
With Alba additionally having a disastrous evening, I do take a look at the street in direction of the 2026 Holyrood election and marvel if the SNP’s lengthy reign is coming to an finish. Their solely solace is that turnout in Scotland was down by 8.5%. In the event that they imagine that a lot of this was their vote staying at house, and that they will enthuse them once more, maybe they will pull off that document fifth election win. Or maybe not…
Rochdale Pioneers
