‘Shang-Chi’ Nears $155M, ‘Candyman’ Notches Box Office Milestones, ‘Dune’ Impresses Overseas

Walt Disney and Marvel’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings continued to do its thing at the domestic box office, earning another $2.46 million on Wednesday. That’s a reasonable 47% drop from last Wednesday and a 23% drop from Tuesday, giving the film a $152.6 million domestic cume. If the film’s domestic/overseas split hasn’t radically changed since Sunday (56/44), then the film should be at around $271 million worldwide. As such, it should be passing $275 million today with a shot at passing $160 million domestic on Friday and $300 million worldwide on Saturday or Sunday. When that happens, it’ll have passed A Quiet Place part II as the year’s third-biggest domestic grosser behind F9 ($170 million) and Black Widow ($184 million).

It might pass Fast & Furious 9’s domestic cume by Sunday but it’ll need another week or so to pass this year’s other MCU movie as the year’s biggest domestic and global grosser. It’ll almost certainly be the first $200 million-plus domestic earner since Bad Boys for Life ($204 million) in January 2020. Alas, it’ll be too late to impact my summer box office gamble, as I had optimistically had Shang-Chi between F9 (now at $714 million worldwide) and Black Widow (now at $370 million). Oh well, it’ll get there eventually. I still maintain that The Legend of the Ten Rings is doing about as well, especially in North America, as it would have opening in February 2021 (President’s Day weekend) in non-Covid circumstances.

Warner Bros. and Legendary’s much-discussed, mostly-acclaimed and $165 million-budgeted Dune began its slow-and-steady overseas launch (better to mute the HBO Max-specific piracy starting with its October 22 domestic debut) with a solid $1.55 million in France yesterday. The all-star (Timothée Chalamet, Zendaya, Jason Moma, Oscar Isaac, Rebecca Ferguson, etc.) adaptation of the first part of Frank Hebert’s epic sci-fi novel nabbed the fourth-best opening day gross in France for September, besting (and this is good news) the opening day gross for Denis Dilleneuve’s Blade Runner 2049. That Ryan Gosling/Harrison Ford sci-fi sequel earned $11.5 million in France in late 2017, but the $155 million flick needed a lot more than a solid gross in France (amid a $252 million cume) to be a hit.

The film opens in 24 markets this weekend, including Germany, Russia, Italy and Spain. The film obviously needs a lot more than a “better than expected” opening day in a single high-profile territory to justify itself commercially and ensure that Dune part One gets a Dune part Two. That said, as someone who has been pessimistic about this one’s theatrical financial fate for the last couple of years (except when it was dated to open in December 2020 in pre-Covid times), I’d rather eat crow than write a sad tale of woe. If this is indicative of how Dune might play with general audiences, I may have to (happily) eat a bowl of mushroom and lemon grass soup on camera in penance sometime next month.

20th Century Studios and Disney’s Free Guy nudged up to $103 million domestic, meaning it will easily quadruple its $28.3 million opening weekend soon enough. It may even top the $200 million Jungle Cruise ($110 million-and-counting) by the end of the weekend. Meanwhile, Universal and MGM’s Candyman arrives on PVOD tomorrow following its now-standard (for most Universal flicks) 21-day theatrical window. The Nia DaCosta-directed, Jordan Peele-produced and Yahya Abdul-Mateen II-starring flick has earned $49.243 million domestic. That puts it just above M. Night Shyamalan’s Old ($47.8 million) and Demon Slayer ($47.7 million). It is now Universal’s biggest-grossing horror movie of 2021. It is also the third-biggest R-rated movie of the year, behind only The Suicide Squad ($55 million) and The Conjuring 3: The Devil Made Me Do It ($64 million).

The fifth-biggest R-rated movie of the year, New Line’s Mortal Kombat ($44 million) might get a sequel. This, despite the $55 million video game adaptation earning $84 million. That may be thanks to a strong-for-HBO Max streaming performance, but I digress. I don’t necessarily think Candyman needs a sequel, especially if Nia DaCosta wants to direct a non-franchise film after The Marvels. While I’d argue that Shang-Chi is performing about as well as otherwise expected, I’m pretty confident arguing that Candyman would have performed better opening in June 2020 in a non-Covid world. That’s arguably part of why Halloween Kills ended up going day-and-date in theaters and on Peacock. Still, a likely “triple your $25 million budget” global result fits squarely in the realm of “good enough,” especially on a Covid curve.