‘Red Notice’ Takes 61% Third-Week Drop In Netflix Rankings

The massive viewership for Netflix’s Red Notice is another example of the difference between what gets written about and what actually gets watched by consumers.

In a case of good news/bad news, or at least good news/amusing news, Red Notice posted 50.6 million hours-viewed in its third global weekly frame as a Netflix original. That gives it a whopping 328.8 million hours viewed in the first 17 days, quickly pushing it past Sandra Bullock’s Bird Box (282 million) to become their most-viewed feature film ever. The “bad, but not that bad” news is that it dropped a whopping 61% from its 129 million-hour second week. To the extent that it matters (probably not as long as those viewers remain on Netflix), I am a little surprised, as I’d figure the violence-lite, vice-free Dwayne Johnson/Ryan Reynolds/Gal Gadot-led PG-13 action comedy would be an ideal “leave the television on while everyone hangs out on Thanksgiving” option.

Halle Berry’s Bruised debuted with a terrific 47.7 million hours viewed, or around 26 million theoretical complete viewings of the Oscar-winning actress’ 129-minute directorial debut. The film remains the most-viewed movie on Netflix’s American daily top-ten list, so it wasn’t a one-weekend wonder. Oh, all ten of today’s most-viewed movies are Netflix originals. That includes four Christmas movies (including both Christmas Chronicles flicks), Bruised, Red Notice and recent rom-coms Love Hard and A Castle For Christmas. It almost doesn’t matter if Red Notice turns out to be as frontloaded as a conventional theatrical biggie. That seems to be Netflix’s business model, and we don’t know if anyone involved with the movie cares about its “in a pop culture vacuum” streaming success.

Dwayne Johnson tweeted yesterday that 50-60% of all Netflix subscribers “watched” Red Notice over its first two weeks, which may be true in terms of “folks hit play or let it auto-play and at least sampled the 115-minute movie.” Yet, even in comparison to previously giant Netflix flicks (Bird Box spawned a deluge of Twitter memes, Old Guard received plenty of fawning coverage and the Snyder fandom made sure we all talked about Army of the Dead), the reportedly monstrous viewership for Red Notice has happened in a metaphorical vacuum. That’s not unlike how television often works. Fair or not, Netflix is considered television, often must-see TV, for most of its users.

The media fawns over prestige shows (Mad Men, Breaking Bad, etc.) or streaming darlings (Ted Lasso, Only Murders in the Building), but general audiences flock to The Good Doctor, Criminal Minds and Modern Family. Conversely, Film Twitter and the general online media community will spend weeks obsessing over an Oscar season filled with movies that few general consumers will see in theaters. Spencer is considered a winner because it cracked $6 million domestic, while House of Gucci is treated as a miracle because it topped $21 million over the holiday. As theatrical filmgoers spend more of their annual moviegoing money on a smaller portion of movies, the “more blogged about than seen” film will encompass many once-mainstream releases.

We shouldn’t just designate success by social media chatter and/or online media coverage. Red Notice is a stand-alone original action-comedy banking on star+concept appeal for those who might be unwilling to venture out to theaters to see such a thing but will hit “play” on the Netflix remote. There’s no Easter Eggs, fan theories, sequel speculation or interconnected universe chatter to obsess upon compared to a Disney+ MCU show or The Fast Saga. While general audiences are far less interested in such “clues” than the perpetually online, that demo requires an emphasis on such coverage. That’s why Ant-Man and the Wasp ($620 million global) can merit far more post-release coverage than Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom ($1.308 billion worldwide).

Presuming that Netflix’s figures are relatively accurate, what this means is that those who watched Red Notice saw the film, enjoyed it or didn’t enjoy it, and then went about their day. That’s actually how most folks consume their entertainment, something to remember when discussing whether Spider-Man 3 is a blight on superhero cinema or whether Star Trek Into Darkness is the worst Star Trek ever. Most folks saw Age of Ultron or Jurassic World once in summer 2015, liked it and didn’t spend the season discussing superhero fatigue or whether Black Widow’s sterilization monologue or Katie McGrath’s over-the-top death was “problematic.” They don’t obsess on this stuff any more than many of you obsess upon sports stats or politics. And most who wanted to watch Red Notice did so in the first ten days.

Do the filmmakers care that even much-watched originals like 6 Underground or Spenser Confidential don’t tend to make much of a pop culture impact, to the point where a film seen by a gazillion people is less of a trending topic than Home Alone 3? Moreover, for how long will Netflix bother to fund big-budget mockbusters even when A) they don’t have any more staying power than anything else and B) they tend to get quickly toppled by forgotten flops like King Arthur and the Legend of the Sword or ignored studio actioners like Homefront? I’ve seen far more folks talking about A Castle for Christmas than Red Notice, and I’m guessing the Cary Elwes/Brooke Shields rom-com didn’t cost $165 million to produce.

Presuming Netflix doesn’t care about pop culture impact and social media coverage, Red Notice again shows that they can create or forgo franchises. Whether Red Notice gets a sequel, spin-off or multimedia universe is not a designation of failure. Army of the Dead is a Netflix hit because many people watched it, not because it spawned Army of Thieves and some upcoming sequels and spin-offs. The continuations are a result of success, not the qualifying variable. That Red Notice can be a “hit” just by offering three old-school movie stars in a conventional action-comedy is itself proof of concept as a Hollywood disrupter. After all, what’s the point in standing out from the pack if you have to play by the same rules?