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The price of a median Christmas meal is a fifth larger than earlier than the pandemic, spurred by a surge within the value of mince pies, parsnips and turkey.
A basket of 10 gadgets, together with potatoes, carrots and pigs in blankets, averaged about £39.40 in December — a 1.7 per cent rise from final 12 months.
Nevertheless, the festive meals invoice was 20 per cent larger than in 2019, in accordance with knowledge from the retail analytics firm Assosia, which tracks the typical pre-promotion costs for own-brand merchandise offered by Tesco, Sainsbury’s, Asda, Morrisons, Aldi and Lidl.
The rise in costs was pushed primarily by “much higher energy prices since the Russia-Ukraine war and the supply chain disruptions which emerged after the pandemic”, stated Tomasz Wieladek, chief European economist at funding firm T Rowe Value.
The price of a 6kg frozen complete turkey was broadly unchanged from final 12 months however 22 per cent greater than in 2019, whereas premium mince pies had been up by practically 60 per cent.
Parsnip costs had been additionally up by nearly 30 per cent on pre-pandemic ranges — though Brussels sprouts had been down.
Wieladek famous {that a} rise within the UK minimal wage of greater than 20 per cent, and wage development of households within the decrease half of the earnings distribution, had outpaced inflation.
“While the actual cost of a Christmas meal has risen significantly since 2019, the cost as a share of wages has roughly remained the same, at least for households in the lower half of the income distribution,” he stated.
The rise in price of the ten gadgets is barely decrease than the 24 per cent enhance within the general shopper value index since November 2019, as measured by the Workplace for Nationwide Statistics.
Total meals costs rose by 32 per cent over the identical interval, with some gadgets registering notably steep will increase. A bottle of olive oil price £9.20 in November — up from solely £3.50 in the identical month in 2019, in accordance with official knowledge. The value of plain biscuits, scorching chocolate, frozen beef burgers, sugar and baked beans have jumped by about 60 per cent since earlier than the pandemic, in accordance with ONS.
ONS meals inflation peaked at 19.2 per cent in March 2023 — the quickest tempo in additional than 45 years — earlier than falling to 2 per cent in November 2024.
Nevertheless, the rise in internationally traded meals commodities poses a brand new threat to customers. In November, the FAO meals value index elevated by an annual price of 5.7 per cent, reaching the very best degree since April 2023.
The rise was pushed by larger costs for dairy merchandise and vegetable oils, linked to extreme rainfall in south-east Asia.
“The cost of a Christmas meal will probably be higher next year and this time it is plausible that wages will not keep up as they have in the past,” stated Wieladek.
