Our soccer betting professional Jones Is aware of gives his perception throughout the Premier League card and ideas up a 13/1 weekend treble with Sky Wager.
Newcastle vs Chelsea, Saturday 12.30pm
Newcastle’s damage disaster has had an enormous affect on this market the place Chelsea at the moment are favourites at 29/20 with Sky Wager. It is a worth which appears to be like skinny to me however the staff information angle nonetheless is a betting proposition as whoever fills in at right-back for Newcastle goes to be underneath critical strain if Alejandro Garnacho begins.
All indicators recommend Lewis Miley is about to deputise on that aspect and at 5/1 with Sky Wager to be booked, that is a worth that merely would not marry up with the duty he is dealing with. When Garnacho is on music, he’s the definition of a stress check for defenders.
When at Manchester United, because the begin of the 23/24 Premier League season, Garnacho drew a card each 206 minutes. That is elite territory for an attacker and it isn’t unintended knowledge. He performs on the sting, he assaults defenders with tempo and he is very theatrical underneath contact.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Burnley going away from residence nonetheless carry that previous narrative of blunt, toothless and simply comfortable to compete. However if you hone in on Bournemouth’s defensive numbers of late, this journey to the south coast appears to be like much more open than the costs recommend.
Andoni Iraola’s males have conceded 21 targets of their final 9 video games, and that is not coming from freak outcomes or red-card chaos. It is a structural problem, one which revolves across the centre-backs being far too uncovered and unable to defend with the identical one-to-one authority as Dean Huijsen and Illia Zabarnyi.
Burnley to attain over 1.5 targets is 100/30 with Sky Wager.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
I’m going again to the nicely in taking over Brighton on this spot as a result of the nicely remains to be overflowing with worth. Brighton, for all their fluidity and wonderful patterns, merely don’t take pleasure in taking part in groups who go direct and switch them.
Beneath Fabian Hurzeler, Brighton have gained 19 of 36 Premier League video games when their opponents have performed underneath 15 per cent of passes lengthy, however solely three of 17 video games in any other case. Sunderland are fifth within the lengthy passes metric of all Premier League groups this season and are more likely to undertake a mode of play that causes Brighton points.
The away staff are 6/5 with Sky Wager on the double likelihood.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
A guess that stands out right here on the costs is Manchester Metropolis to win the playing cards race at 7/2 with Sky Wager, which means we want Metropolis to be proven extra playing cards than West Ham to land the pot.
Regardless of the cumbersome worth, this guess has landed in eight of Metropolis’s final 13 video games in all competitions, which factors to them carrying a cynical edge to their sport of late. This contains in the same residence sport in opposition to Leeds the place they gained the cardboard race 4-1 regardless of being the outsiders available in the market.
Throughout their final eight video games, West Ham have seen the opponents common two playing cards per sport with the specter of Jarrod Bowen and Crysensio Summerville triggering some card-worthy motion from defenders.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1
Wolves vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm
Wolves high the charts this season for fouls dedicated and Matt Doherty actually received into the spirit of issues on his return at Arsenal, making a whopping 5 fouls.
He might be tasked with holding Kevin Schade quiet – a participant that leads the way in which for fouls drawn this season for Brentford at 1.62 per 90. This makes Doherty’s worth to make two or extra fouls at 5/4 with Sky Wager very interesting.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Tottenham vs Liverpool, Saturday 5.30pm, reside on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6 TO WIN £750,000!
Of Arne Slot’s final 17 wins away from residence at Liverpool, 12 of these have seen underneath 3.5 targets too. That could be a related development when assessing one of the best ways to again a pro-Liverpool angle on this fixture.
Everyone knows about Tottenham’s points in ahead areas and them with the ability to create high quality probabilities. All their key attacking metrics have the look of a staff that must be battling relegation: 9.6 pictures per sport, 3.3 pictures on the right track per sport, 1.0 anticipated targets per 90 and 1.8 large probabilities created per sport. It is an underlying attacking course of which is the fourth-worst within the Premier League. One other clean might comply with right here.
You may get 21/10 with Sky Wager on Liverpool to win and underneath 3.5 targets – a pleasant enhance on the Evens for a Liverpool win.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2
Our previous pal of Arsenal to win and underneath 3.5 targets at 6/5 with Sky Wager is the road that appeals.
Arsenal do not do goal-glut soccer. Fairly the alternative, actually. Throughout all competitions, their matches are averaging simply 2.7 targets per 90 minutes, a surprisingly modest return for a staff perceived as a free-flowing power. Mikel Arteta’s males have seen 15 of their wins this season land the three.5 targets too, together with final weekend in opposition to Wolves the place they delivered the percentages in dramatic style.
With Everton definitely lacking Idrissa Gueye and Iliman Ndiaye and doubtlessly with out Keinan Dewsbury-Corridor and Jack Grealish, David Moyes goes to have to return to fundamentals for a end result. Defend deep, get the gang concerned and attempt to trigger issues from set items. That is unlikely to be sufficient to work in opposition to this Arsenal machine.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-1
It is a fixture the place the league desk tells you little or no, however the calendar tells you the whole lot. At full throttle, with each groups contemporary and raring to go, Palace have proven they’re the higher staff.
Nonetheless, three video games in six days, totally different opponents, totally different tactical calls for and now a visit to Elland Street – probably the most bodily demanding environments in English soccer – ideas the scales firmly in Leeds’ favour.
Palace’s schedule is exclusive and brutal. And what we have seen from Daniel Farke’s staff in current weeks is that they make video games an intense battle.
This is not a guess in opposition to Palace’s high quality. It is a guess in opposition to the schedule they’re trapped in. Leeds at 8/5 with Sky Wager is greatest guess of the weekend materials.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Leeds to beat Crystal Palace (8/5 with Sky Wager)
Aston Villa vs Manchester United, Sunday 4.30pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
This one is primed for chaos.
Each groups rank inside the highest 4 for xG created per 90 when trailing in a match. It is the place Villa are literally thriving in the case of the info.
What this tells us is that if the scoreline modifications early, the match will not settle. It will stretch, open up, and switch into an end-to-end spectacle with two harmful assaults.
Villa have taken 15 factors from shedding positions this season, greater than another Premier League aspect. That is not luck. That is mentality, model and intent.
After they fall behind, they double down on attacking patterns moderately than defending themselves. At Villa Park, that philosophy is heightened, too. Towards a Manchester United aspect which have averaged 3.5 whole targets per sport this season and one which additionally thrives in damaged, transitional video games, that factors in the direction of this being a possible banger.
Each groups to attain and over 2.5 targets at 10/11 with Sky Wager is a winner in ready.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Each groups to attain & over 2.5 targets (10/11 with Sky Wager)
Fulham vs Nottingham Forest vs Fulham, Monday 8pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
Marco Silva appeared crestfallen watching Fulham being knocked out of the Carabao Cup in midweek.
One other likelihood to problem for a trophy got here and went. And the tough actuality for Fulham is that Silva, who’s out of contract in the summertime, has in all probability outgrown them now. He is a really bold coach.
Ask your self this: would you moderately preserve Fulham in mid-table season after season or doubtlessly go take a job the place difficult for honours and taking part in in Europe is on the radar? Silva has earned a crack at that.
Monday twenty second December 6:30pm
Kick off 8:00pm
And with uncertainty rising about his state of affairs, that would spell bother for Fulham over the subsequent six months or so. A membership which can be famed for downing instruments when protected in mid-table, that regression might come sooner.
In distinction, there is a freshness and enthusiasm in the way in which Nottingham Forest are taking part in now underneath Sean Dyche. With Murillo and Nikola Milenkovic again as a pair, a surge up the desk is anticipated. Forest draw no guess at 11/10 with Sky Wager is a tasty wager.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Nottingham Forest to win (2/1 with Sky Wager)
Jones Is aware of’ greatest guess…
1pt treble on: Leeds to win, each groups to attain & over 2.5 targets in Aston Villa vs Man Utd & Nottingham Forest to win (13/1 with Sky Wager)
