Our soccer betting skilled Jones Is aware of offers his perception throughout the Premier League weekend and suggestions Manchester Metropolis to win an exhilarating Manchester derby.
Manchester United vs Manchester Metropolis, Saturday 12.30pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
Pep Guardiola is having fun with taking part in along with his shiny new toy.
Antonie Semenyo has hit the bottom working at Manchester Metropolis and his anytime goalscorer angle for this Manchester derby at 15/8 with Sky Guess actually appeals.
What actually stood out within the win at Newcastle was how totally different Semenyo makes this Manchester Metropolis assault look. Metropolis have brilliance, management and construction popping out of their ears however what they do not all the time have is uncooked, aggressive directness. Semenyo brings that in bucketloads.
Defenders are obsessive about Erling Haaland – that’s solely going to assist Semenyo. It creates pockets of area and Semenyo is intelligent sufficient and aggressive sufficient to use them. Whether or not he is beginning vast left, drifting inside from the precise or ghosting in round Haaland, he is consistently sniffing hazard somewhat than ready for it.
And, for no matter purpose, area appears to open up for him in opposition to Manchester United and he revels in it. Semenyo has scored in his final three appearances in opposition to United, together with that bonkers 4-4 draw at Previous Trafford earlier this season.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-3 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Antonie Semenyo to attain (15/8 with Sky Guess)
Chelsea vs Brentford, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Brentford rocking up at Stamford Bridge would not really feel like a mismatch anymore – in actual fact, it is changing into a fixture they quietly stay up for. They’ve misplaced simply as soon as of their final eight visits throughout west London and that tells you the whole lot concerning the mentality of this group. There isn’t a worry.
And proper now, they’re completely buzzing.
Brentford are in the midst of their finest unbeaten Premier League run of the season – six video games with out defeat, successful 4 of the final 5. And since December 14, no Premier League group has picked up extra factors than the Bees (14). They’re 11/10 with Sky Guess on the double probability.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Leeds vs Fulham, Saturday 3pm
Leeds are an important watch and their video games are fairly chaotic by design. They play on the sting, get in your face and so they ask questions of the opposition, however additionally they invite strain. Throughout their final 18 fixtures their video games are averaging 3.5 objectives and so they’ve saved only one clear sheet in that interval.
Fulham arrive as the proper dance companion to punt on objectives with over 2.5 trying very beneficiant at 11/10 with Sky Guess.
They’ve scored of their final 12 matches throughout all competitions, displaying a degree of attacking consistency that travels effectively. Marco Silva’s aspect do not want large dominance to seek out the online both – they’re sharp in transition, intelligent within the half-spaces and harmful from vast areas.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Over 2.5 objectives (11/10 with Sky Guess)
Liverpool vs Burnley, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Arne Slot’s Liverpool are starting to appear to be a critical group once more.
The large shift has come of their construction in defence. Slot has clearly prioritised management with out the ball, giving Virgil van Dijk and Ibrahima Konate correct safety in entrance of them somewhat than leaving them uncovered, which in flip has minimize out the foolish errors costing them objectives.
Throughout their final eight video games, Liverpool have conceded simply 5 objectives. That is not smoke and mirrors both. The anticipated objectives in opposition to knowledge backs it up properly at 0.8 per 90, pointing to a aspect that’s limiting high-quality possibilities somewhat than counting on last-ditch defending or goalkeeping heroics.
Whenever you mix Liverpool’s improved defensive course of with Burnley’s restricted attacking risk, Liverpool to win to nil shapes up as a shrewd play at 10/11 with Sky Guess.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Sunderland vs Crystal Palace, Saturday 3pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Crystal Palace arrive off the again of that damaging FA Cup exit, knocked out within the third spherical by non-league Macclesfield. The instinctive response is to anticipate a fierce response. However historical past strongly pushes again in opposition to that concept.
Wanting on the final 13 Premier League groups dumped out by League One opposition or beneath at that stage, the next-game document reads poorly: three wins, 4 attracts and 6 defeats. And even these three wins have been by the naked minimal – a single-goal margin. There isn’t any proof of a bounce-back surge. If something, the hangover lingers.
Sunderland stay unbeaten at dwelling this season – a run constructed on vitality, construction and a crowd that turns the Stadium of Gentle into a really uncomfortable place to go to. They appear an important value on the draw no wager at 10/11 with Sky Guess.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0
Tottenham vs West Ham, Saturday 3pm
Jarrod Bowen and Crysencio Summerville are the livewires for West Ham. Cease them, and also you largely cease West Ham.
The issue for the guests is that they are working right into a Tottenham aspect particularly designed to take that weapon away.
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Talking on the Switch Discuss Podcast, The Athletic’s Dan Kilpatrick explains why, regardless of Conor Gallagher being possibility for Tottenham Hotspur, it raises questions concerning the squad Thomas Frank is constructing
One of many defining traits of Thomas Frank’s Spurs is how effectively they handle transition moments. They do not permit video games to turn into stretched, they recuperate their form shortly and so they suffocate counter-attacks earlier than they ever get going. That is backed up by the numbers.
Throughout the season, Spurs have conceded the second-fewest quick breaks within the league (11) – and crucially, they have not conceded a single aim from a quick break.
There’s additionally a really sturdy angle below Frank in that 9 of his 10 wins as Spurs boss have come to nil. When Tottenham win, they do not simply win, they shut the door. It is 2/1 with Sky Guess to land once more.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Tottenham to win to nil (2/1 with Sky Guess)
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm – PLAY SUPER 6!
Gabriel Magalhaes is quietly changing into a magnet for fouls. Not as a result of he is theatrical, however due to how Arsenal use him. He steps in aggressively throughout build-up, carries the ball ahead into strain and is consistently concerned in bodily duels at set items. That mixture naturally invitations contact and referees have been glad to blow the whistle.
The current numbers underline that development. Gabriel has been fouled no less than as soon as in 9 of his final 10 begins, averaging 1.53 fouls drawn per 90. That is a wholesome baseline for a centre-back, and it places the two+ fouls line effectively inside attain in the precise sort of sport at 11/4 with Sky Guess. Right here, he is developing in opposition to Igor Jesus.
The Forest striker is aggressive, uncooked and nonetheless studying when to step in and when to again off. He is dedicated 22 fouls throughout his current matches.
SCORE PREDICTION: 0-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Gabriel to be fouled +2 instances (11/4 with Sky Guess)
Wolves vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, reside on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6!
Wolves have quietly turn into a really tough group to attain in opposition to. The standout development of their current performances is defensive enchancment, and it is backed up by critical underlying numbers.
Throughout their final six video games, solely Arsenal can higher Wolves’ anticipated objectives in opposition to technique of 0.99 per 90. That is elite territory. Wolves have confronted Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester United in that spell. So whereas the pattern dimension is small, the standard of opposition offers these numbers actual credibility.
We all know Newcastle are a really totally different proposition away from St James’ Park – and it is the attacking drop-off that is most hanging. Of their final 17 Premier League away video games, they’ve scored greater than 1.5 objectives simply 3 times.
On common, Newcastle are managing simply 1.2 objectives per away sport in that run, struggling to generate sustained strain or high-quality possibilities on their travels. The 6/5 with Sky Guess on them scoring below 1.5 objectives once more on the highway seems a winner in ready.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Aston Villa vs Everton, Sunday 4.30pm, reside on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6!
David Moyes’ document away from dwelling in opposition to top-level opposition is horrendous.
Going all the best way again to his West Ham days, his document away at Arsenal, Liverpool and Manchester Metropolis reads 20 losses from 21 video games. It is a brutal return.
These video games are inclined to comply with the identical script too: sit deep, restrict harm, sluggish the tempo and hope to remain within the contest for so long as doable. Now, this fixture would not technically fall into that bracket – however at what level can we begin calling Aston Villa an elite dwelling aspect?
Villa Park has turn into a fortress. They’ve gained their final 11 dwelling video games, a run that features assertion victories over Arsenal and Manchester Metropolis. The depth, construction and perception Unai Emery has created there’s proper up there with the easiest within the league.
Moyes’ away video games are not often chaotic although. Since returning to Everton, simply two of his 20 away matches have gone over 3.5 objectives, with the common sitting at simply 1.8 objectives per 90. That is why combining a Villa win and below 3.5 objectives is smart at 11/10 with Sky Guess.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-0
Brighton vs Bournemouth, Monday 8pm, reside on Sky Sports activities
Bournemouth’s away video games this season are bonkers. They’re averaging 4.8 objectives per sport on the highway. Nope, not a typo. Sure, virtually 5 objectives per sport.
The markets are totally aligned for objectives on this one although, which naturally pushes us towards the anytime goalscorer angle.
And who higher to focus on than Kaoru Mitoma? The Japanese winger is beginning to appear to be his previous sparky, nightmare-for-defenders self. His motion, bursts in behind and intuition for aim are all again in proof – as proven by his aim vs Manchester Metropolis.
Historical past offers us much more confidence. Mitoma has scored 5 objectives in his final six video games in opposition to Bournemouth – that little bit of a psychological edge over the opposition is not factored into the costs at 5/2 with Sky Guess.
SCORE PREDICTION: 3-2 | JONES KNOWS’ BET BET: Karou Mitoma to attain (5/2 with Sky Guess)
Jones Is aware of’ finest bets…
- 1pt double on Antonie Semenyo & Karou Mitoma each to attain (9/1 with Sky Guess)
- 1pt double on over 2.5 objectives in Leeds vs Fulham & Aston Villa to win and below 3.5 objectives (7/2 with Sky Guess)
- 1pt on Tottenham to win to nil (2/1 with Sky Guess)
- 1pt on Gabriel to win +2 fouls (11/4 with Sky Guess)
