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Brazil’s leftwing president is standing agency in opposition to Donald Trump’s 50 per cent tariff risk, as Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva seizes the confrontation with Washington to revive his re-election prospects.
After the US president jolted Brazil on Wednesday with a letter citing political justifications for imposing supercharged duties, Lula instantly promised to retaliate, saying his nation “would not be tutored by anyone”.
The international ministry additionally summoned the performing US ambassador and returned Trump’s “insulting” tariff letter to him. Brasília views the Trump risk as blatantly political, given the US has a commerce surplus with Brazil.
Trump’s letter, which outlined the very best up to date “reciprocal” tariff of any nation, described former hard-right president Jair Bolsonaro’s trial on costs of plotting a coup as a “witch-hunt” and accused Brazil’s supreme court docket of issuing “secret and unlawful censorship orders” in opposition to US social media corporations.
One senior official in Brasília mentioned the Lula authorities would stand agency within the face of Trump’s threats. “It’s an attack on Brazilian democracy,” he mentioned. “There’s no negotiation possible on this.”
Brazil’s actual fell by greater than 2 per cent on Trump’s risk, which might hit exports of Brazilian aeroplanes, espresso, orange juice and crude oil if carried out from August 1. “If this 50 per cent tariff scenario becomes long-lasting, Brazil’s GDP could potentially be reduced by 0.8 per cent to 1.2 per cent,” mentioned Vinicius Moreira at JPMorgan in a observe to purchasers.
However even the usually staid pro-business newspaper Estadão de São Paulo described Trump’s risk as a “mafia thing” and known as on “those who are truly Brazilian . . . not to allow themselves to become lackeys” of the US president.
Lula’s supporters flooded social media with nationalist messages accusing Bolsonaro’s household, which has been waging a lobbying marketing campaign in Washington in opposition to Lula’s authorities, of promoting out their very own nation.
“Now you will have to decide whether you are on Trump’s side or Brazil’s side,” mentioned leftwing deputy Guilherme Boulos in a fiery speech. “That Trump tax now has a name . . . it is the Bolsonaro tax”.
Lula’s authorities had been flagging within the polls, because the 79-year-old leftist struggled to persuade voters hit by excessive meals inflation that he may make them higher off. However Trump’s aggressive assault on Brazil has breathed recent life into an unpopular authorities’s efforts to win re-election, a phenomenon already seen in Canada.
“Lula is back in the game,” mentioned Thomas Traumann, a political analyst in Rio. “Two weeks ago there was a consensus that the opposition were the favourites, but no longer. If the elections were this year, I have little doubt that Lula would win.” Brazil chooses a brand new president in October 2026.
The magnitude of Trump’s tariff risk even took abruptly some Brazilian rightwingers who’ve been calling for US sanctions in opposition to Alexandre de Moraes, the supreme court docket choose overseeing the Bolsonaro case. One ally of the US-based Bolsonarista lobbying camp mentioned: “[They] never asked for anything at this scale, nor expected it”.
The conservative opposition appeared not sure how to answer the draconian tariff risk, even because the left flooded the web with memes of rightwing leaders comparable to São Paulo governor Tarcísio de Freitas carrying Make America Nice Once more caps.
CNN Brasil reported that Bolsonaro, alarmed by the doable electoral blowback, was contemplating asking the White Home to reverse the tariff risk.
Brazil is already closely depending on commerce with China, its greatest buying and selling associate, and has few choices for diversification. Its hopes of securing ratification of a long-planned free commerce deal between the EU and the Mercosur bloc of South American nations are fading after fierce opposition from European farmers.
France is demanding that solely produce made to EU requirements ought to be allowed to learn from tariff reductions, which might require altering the treaty and could be rejected by Latin American international locations.
Poland, Italy and the Netherlands additionally need extra safety for farmers. The European Fee has but to ship the deal to member states regardless of promising to earlier than the summer time.
In Brazil’s company world, which has soured on Lula’s tax-and-spend financial coverage, there was a temper of wariness.
Caio Megale, chief economist at XP Investimentos, mentioned whereas the general macroeconomic impact could be restricted, an even bigger concern for traders was the political uncertainty. “The first impact was an increase in the perception of risk. It creates disproportionate noise.”
“This episode shows that polarisation in Brazil is far from over and the 2026 election will be very tight,” mentioned Ricardo Lacerda, chief govt of funding financial institution BR Companions. “This movement creates flags for the radical wings of the right and the left. The loser is Brazil.”
