James Flaherty analyses each runner in a mouth-watering renewal of racing’s Christmas characteristic at Kempton Park on Boxing Day on Friday.
1) Banbridge
Jockey: Sean Bowen | Coach: Joseph O’Brien
It simply reveals the standard of the race in prospect that final 12 months’s winner is a double-figure worth to retain his crown. He was spectacular in getting the higher of Il Est Francais a 12 months in the past, because the pair pulled a good distance away from a robust discipline. That’s simply Banbridge’s greatest effort of current, and he has been fairly disappointing in fact since.
Kempton can very a lot be a “Horses for Courses” observe although, with the runner-up final 12 months one other prime instance. A repeat of final 12 months’s heroic efficiency would undoubtedly see him concerned once more, even when it could fall quick this time round. He does have to return to type although and his prep run at Cork was a good distance in need of his effort final 12 months, even when it was his seasonal reappearance.
2) Djelo
Charlie Deutsch | Miss V Williams
Djelo is a candidate for one of many greatest improvers in Nationwide Hunt Racing over the previous three years. Three seasons in the past, he improved a stone in handicap hurdles and adopted that by enhancing an additional 19lbs in his novice chase marketing campaign. One might need thought that was his ceiling, however he nonetheless managed to enhance one other 15lbs final season, regardless of being dropped 4lbs for his remaining run of the marketing campaign.
He’s nonetheless comparatively unexposed over staying journeys, having solely run over three miles on three events and successful two of them. His solely defeat over the journey got here at Aintree final season behind Gaelic Warrior, however I am going to at all times forgive a horse a poor run on the finish of a protracted season. He is totally likeable and the seven-year-old should still be going the proper means, however I will be stunned if he would not discover a couple too good right here.
3) Reality To File
Mark Walsh | Willie Mullins
Will he, will not he? Initially, final 12 months’s Ryanair winner was in direction of the highest of the betting for this race, however that modified when the suggestion was that he was prone to keep in Eire. The ten-1 out there in the midst of December shortly evaporated when the rumours surfaced that he might certainly journey to Kempton and he’s now difficult his stablemate (and John Durkan conqueror) Gaelic Warrior for favouritism.
Reality To File flies the flag for JP McManus
Reality To File appeared like a blatant non-stayer to me on the top-level final season, earlier than a scintillating show within the Ryanair over shorter. His ending effort there was in stark distinction to that of a 12 months earlier within the Brown Advisory and his two makes an attempt at three miles final season. Was he outstayed at Punchestown or did he want the run and get drained? It could be a little bit of each, however I am not so positive he’ll reverse that type.
4) Gaelic Warrior
Paul Townend | Willie Mullins
I’ve at all times been an enormous fan of Gaelic Warrior, who’s as enigmatic as he’s gifted. He clearly would not like Leopardstown, however his common type away from the Foxrock observe is of a really excessive normal. His solely defeat over fences away from Leopardstown was by the hands of Il Etait Temps in a Grade 1 novice over the sharp two miles at Punchestown.
He’s unbeaten over three miles due to a pair of Grade 1 wins, the newest of which was a formidable success at Aintree final season when simply getting the higher of Gray Dawning. A really likeable success within the John Durkan on return when he bravely battled again to get the higher of Reality To File in a thriller. The ways on him shall be fascinating.
5) Il Est Francais
Harry Cobden | Tom George
Il Est Francais clearly struggles together with his consistency however there’s little doubt that he has introduced his A-game on his two earlier visits to Kempton Park. Two years in the past he was devastating within the Kauto Star as a novice and he was solely narrowly denied on this race final 12 months by the late thrust of Banbridge, who was the recipient of an excellent trip from Paul Townend.
He has been extra hit than miss since and whereas I anticipate him to go away his seasonal return properly behind right here, it’s in all probability truthful to say that even his best possible might come up quick on this firm. This appears like a greater renewal, and a repeat of final 12 months’s effort might not even be adequate for the primary three, whereas he additionally faces extra competitors for the lead this time.
6) Jango Baie
Nico de Boinville | Nicky Henderson
A exceptional winner of final 12 months’s Arkle (type figuring out properly), when he grabbed victory from the jaws of defeat, Jango Baie has at all times promised to be a greater horse when getting a stiffer take a look at. His newest effort was even higher than his Arkle win. Even when the race did crumble a bit, visually it appeared excellent.
Jango Baie received the 2025 Arkle Chase
This shall be his first try at three miles and for all that he appears as if he’ll thrive for it, there’s nonetheless some ingredient of doubt till he truly goes and does it. I feel he’ll keep, and the probably sturdy tempo ought to swimsuit his hold-up fashion with a number of in right here prone to be outstanding. He is among the potential improvers, however there’s an argument that he might want to on this exalted firm.
7) Grasp Chewy
Sam Twiston-Davies | Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies
With all due respect to Nigel and Willy Twiston-Davies, Grasp Chewy faces a giant job right here on this firm. On the constructive facet, he was spectacular on his sole earlier go to to Kempton Park, however that was in Grade 2 novices’ chase over the minimal journey.
On his newest begin, he was crushed a good distance by Jango Baie at Ascot and it’s tough to see him touchdown a blow right here. That is his first begin at three miles, however he would not appear like one which has been on the lookout for a stamina take a look at. He’s in all probability the one one of many eight that may be safely dominated out.
8) The Jukebox Man
The apple of Ben Pauling’s eye, The Jukebox Man arrived on the scene on the highest degree with a formidable win within the Kauto Star Novices’ Chase right here a 12 months in the past. A setback meant that was the ultimate run of his novice marketing campaign and we had been left questioning at the beginning of the season the place he actually stood within the second-season chaser’s pecking order.
His defeat of Iroko on return confirmed he nonetheless retains his means and even when the shape was franked final weekend to an extent, it’s tough to establish with certainty what he achieved at Haydock. My intestine tells me he has a lot to seek out with the primary contenders right here and I really feel he’s far too quick on what he has achieved to this point. Time will inform simply how a lot of his means now we have but to see.
James’ verdict
It is a deep renewal with six of those rated 163 or increased, and it’s possible to make the case for all of them, in addition to The Jukebox Man who’s the least uncovered, even when he has a bit to seek out on scores.
Whereas Banbridge could also be a contact over-priced, backing him requires one thing of a present of religion given his present type. Comparable feedback apply to Il Est Francais, whereas I really feel Djelo and The Jukebox Man want to enhance to get entangled.
I really feel just like the winner will come from one of many “big three” and of these, Reality To File has inquiries to reply over three miles for me. The type of his Brown Advisory win appears bang common (these behind are winless in 28 begins since) and his ending effort there did not impress me, regardless of successful simply sufficient. He has been soundly crushed in his two begins on the journey in open firm and I am inclined to concentrate on the opposite pair.
Jango Baie is the unknown, as he may simply enhance additional for this stiffer take a look at on his first begin on the journey. Nevertheless, I will facet with GAELIC WARRIOR, who has received each of his begins at this journey in Grade 1 firm, over hurdles and fences.
He has nothing to show stamina clever on these grounds and his excessive cruising velocity means he has the proper mix of tempo and endurance for this distinctive take a look at. His type final time is pretty much as good as something in right here and I anticipate him to uphold that.
Whereas Reality To File made up plenty of floor, I assumed Gaelic Warrior outbattled and outstayed him. Given how free he was within the early a part of the race, it stunned me how robust he was within the end. Away from Leopardstown, his total document is high class, and he’s truly extraordinarily constant. I assumed two-and-a-half miles final time favoured Reality To File, however Gaelic Warrior is confirmed at this journey. Jango Baie is taken into account a much bigger hazard, however as he has it to show on the distance, Gaelic Warrior is the choice and I truly assume 3-1 is greater than truthful.
