By Samia Nakhoul, Parisa Hafezi
DUBAI (Reuters) -Iran’s management and allies are bracing for what they might regard as a dreadful final result of the upcoming U.S. presidential election: A return to energy of Donald Trump.
Opinion polls counsel the Republican Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris stay locked in a detailed contest. However Iranian leaders and their regional allies in Lebanon, Iraq, and Yemen are involved that Trump might nicely triumph on Nov. 5 and this might spell extra hassle for them.
Iran’s primary concern is the potential for Trump to empower Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to strike Iran’s nuclear websites, conduct focused assassinations and reimpose his “maximum pressure policy” via heightened sanctions on their oil trade, in accordance with Iranian, Arab and Western officers.
They anticipate that Trump, who was president in 2017-21, will exert utmost stress on Iranian Supreme Chief Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to collapse by accepting a nuclear containment deal on phrases set by himself and Israel.
This potential change in U.S. management might have far-reaching implications for the Center East stability of energy, and may reshape Iran’s overseas coverage and financial prospects.
Analysts argue that whether or not the subsequent U.S. administration is led by Harris or Trump, Iran will lack the leverage it as soon as held – largely attributable to Israel’s year-old navy marketing campaign geared toward degrading the Islamic Republic’s armed proxies, together with Hamas in Gaza and Hezbollah in Lebanon.
Nevertheless, Trump’s stance is perceived as extra detrimental to Iran attributable to his extra automated assist for Israel, they added.
“Trump will either put very tough conditions on Iran or let Israel carry out targeted strikes on its nuclear facilities. He is fully endorsing a military action against Iran,” Abdelaziz al-Sagher, head of the Gulf Analysis Heart think-tank, mentioned.
“It’s Netanyahu’s dream day to have Trump back in the White House,” he instructed Reuters.
POISON CHALICE?
A senior Iranian official who declined to be named instructed Reuters Tehran was “prepared for all scenarios. We have (for decades) consistently found ways to export oil, bypassing harsh U.S. sanctions…, and have strengthened our ties with the rest of the world no matter who was in the White House.”
However one other Iranian official mentioned a Trump victory could be “a nightmare. He will raise pressure on Iran to please Israel…, make sure oil sanctions are fully enforced. If so, (our) establishment will be economically paralysed.”
In an election speech in October, Trump stated his unwillingness to go to war with Iran, but said Israel should “hit the Iranian nuclear first and fear about the remainder later”, in response to Iran’s missile attack on Israel on Oct. 1.
Israel retaliated with airstrikes on Iranian military targets, especially missile production sites, on Oct. 26.
Iran’s choices are limited going forward, analysts say.
“The reality is: Trump is going to support Netanyahu and give him the green light to do whatever he wants,” said Hassan Hassan, an author and researcher on Islamic groups. “Trump is much worse (than Harris) for Iran.”
Hassan famous that Washington has delegated a considerable share of accountability to Israel within the battle with Iran and its proxies, with Israel main the way in which. “The U.S. is concerned sufficient in that it’s backing Israel, could also be extra so than earlier than.
“This time it is simply issues are actually unhealthy for Iran. Iran is seen as an issue by each Republicans and Democrats.”
Throughout her marketing campaign, Harris known as Iran a “dangerous” and “destabilising” power within the Center East and mentioned the U.S. was dedicated to Israel’s safety. She mentioned the U.S. would work with allies to disrupt Iran’s “aggressive behaviour”.
However Trump’s re-election could be a “poisoned chalice”, for Khamenei, in accordance with two regional officers.
If he have been to reinstate stringent sanctions, Khamenei could also be pressured to barter and settle for a nuclear pact extra beneficial to U.S. and Israeli time period to protect theocratic rule in Iran, which is going through rising overseas stress and has been buffeted by bouts of mass protest at house lately.
A U.S.-Saudi defence pact tied to Riyadh’s establishing diplomatic relations with Israel, now in its last negotiating phases, poses a big problem to Khamenei too.
This alliance threatens to shift the regional stability of energy by making a extra unified entrance in opposition to Iran, impacting its geopolitical standing and technique within the Center East.
NEW ARCHITECTURE
Hassan mentioned current assaults on Iran and its allies have been broadly perceived as a big success for Israel. They supplied insights into what a restricted strike on Iran may appear like, setting a precedent and altering assumptions that navy motion on Iran would inevitably spark a wider Center East struggle.
A senior Arab safety official mentioned that Tehran might “no longer brandish its influence through its armed proxies” within the wake of Israel’s lethal strikes on Hezbollah and Hamas leaders.
For its personal half, Iran has each motive to concern one other Trump time period.
It was Trump who in 2018 unilaterally pulled the U.S. out of Iran’s 2015 nuclear take care of world powers and ordered the killing of Qassem Soleimani, Khamenei’s right-hand man and mastermind of abroad assaults on U.S. and allied pursuits.
Trump additionally imposed punitive sanctions focusing on Iran’s oil export revenues and worldwide banking transactions, which led to excessive financial hardship and exacerbated public discontent within the Islamic Republic.
He incessantly mentioned throughout his presidential marketing campaign that President Joe Biden’s coverage of not rigorously imposing oil export sanctions has weakened Washington and emboldened Tehran, permitting it to promote oil, accumulate money and increase its nuclear pursuits and affect via armed militias.
In March, he instructed Israel’s Hayom newspaper in an interview that Iran might have a nuclear weapon in 35 days and that Israel – which deems Iran’s nuclear exercise an existential risk although is broadly thought to have the area’s solely nuclear arms – was in a “very treacherous and dangerous neighbourhood”.
An Arab authorities adviser famous that Tehran recognises there’s a “new architecture in the making”, but additionally that Trump regardless of his powerful rhetoric realises there is no such thing as a various to a take care of Iran given its accelerated uranium enrichment program.
“Trump might aim for a new nuclear agreement, he could say I tore up the 2015 agreement because it was incomplete and replace it with a long-lasting agreement, touting it to ‘make America great again’ and preserve U.S. interests,” the adviser mentioned.
Because the 2015 deal has eroded over time, Iran has escalated the extent of fissile purity in enriched uranium, chopping the time it might have to construct an atom bomb if it selected to, although it denies desirous to.
Iran On-line, a state-run information web site, said that when Trump left workplace, Iran was capping enrichment at 3.67 % below the deal, far beneath the 90 % of weapons grade.
Now, Iran has “enriched uranium to 60% with IR-6 advanced centrifuges” and will obtain nuclear weapons functionality “within a few weeks … Completing the nuclear deterrence cycle is Iran’s greatest trump card against Trump,” it mentioned.
Arab and Western officers warn that the extra Iran hints it’s nearing growth of an atom bomb, the extra they incite the necessity for Israel to strike.
“If Trump reassumes energy, he’ll assist Israeli plans to strike Iranian nuclear services,” a Western official mentioned.
