FirstFT: What to anticipate as America votes

As we speak’s agenda: Ukraine fights North Korean troops; Palantir shares surge; Germany’s financial disaster; the US election in seven charts; and Israel’s plan to reshape the Center East

Good morning. As we speak, Individuals face a alternative between starkly contrasting visions set forth by Kamala Harris and Donald Trump, a choice that might mark their nation, and the world, for many years. Right here’s what to anticipate as America votes.

What may resolve the election: The seven swing states are a very powerful. Each candidates have spent the closing hours of their marketing campaign searching for votes in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. The Monetary Occasions ballot tracker exhibits a statistical tie between Harris and Trump in all of them.

The gender break up may additionally tip the scales. Polls present ladies have been flocking to Harris on the again of her vows to guard reproductive freedom. Buyers reined in bets on a Trump win yesterday after a ballot confirmed her unexpectedly main in Republican-leaning Iowa — partly from a late surge in assist from feminine voters. However males have more and more turned to Trump, who has tapped male anxieties and grievances, in addition to conventional considerations about immigration and the financial system.

What to look out for as outcomes are available: Count on an extended night. Polls will begin closing at 6pm Jap time (11pm GMT), with the final polls closing at midnight ET in Alaska. Information businesses will venture outcomes for every state, not only for the presidency but additionally for races within the Home of Representatives and Senate. Solely 270 of the 538 electoral faculty votes are wanted to clinch the presidency, so not all states should be referred to as for a winner to emerge.

However we could not have a transparent outcome for a number of days. Every of the swing states counts votes at totally different speeds, with Arizona, as an example, estimating it may take 10-13 days to report full outcomes. Razor-thin margins may result in recounts, and authorized challenges may drag out the method.

• A rustic on edge: Regulation enforcement businesses are braced for civil unrest after a marketing campaign season characterised by “unprecedented” ranges of violent rhetoric.

• Company America: The end result could have large penalties for firms spanning power, automobiles and prescription drugs.

• Financial in-tray: Mohamed El-Erian particulars 5 essential financial areas the incoming president must sort out.

We’ll have real-time updates and evaluation from our reporters on the bottom because the outcomes unfold — try our stay weblog on FT.com later as we speak. And be sure you’re signed up to obtain our US election e-newsletter, with editions each as we speak and tomorrow. Right here’s what else I’m maintaining tabs on as we speak:

• EU: The bloc’s finance ministers meet in Brussels to debate support for Ukraine, laws on worth added tax and the local weather.

• Outcomes: Asos, Related British Meals, Hugo Boss, Ørsted, Saudi Aramco and Thomson Reuters report.

5 extra high tales

1. Ukrainian officers mentioned yesterday that their forces had fired at North Korean troopers for the primary time since their deployment by Russia to its western Kursk area. The clashes mark the primary direct intervention by a international military since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine started in 2022. Now we have extra updates.

2. Shares in Palantir Applied sciences surged as a lot as 15 per cent in after-hours buying and selling yesterday as Peter Thiel’s knowledge analytics group reported report quarterly earnings and raised its income forecast, citing excessive demand for its synthetic intelligence software program. Learn the total story.

3. Taiwan’s hovering power costs and rising outages are affecting TSMC, the world’s largest chipmaker. Following a collection of worth will increase, the corporate now expects to pay extra for energy in its house nation than wherever else. Right here’s how Taiwan’s shaky power transition is straining its trade.

4. Demand for private safety for executives is rising as firms are more and more focused by protesters, in response to the top of one of many world’s greatest non-public safety teams. Allied Common chief Steve Jones mentioned companies linked to Israel, defence and power had been extra more likely to search extra safety.

5. Germany’s deputy chancellor has made a serious concession in talks on subsequent yr’s funds amid fears {that a} simmering row over the spending plan may carry down the nation’s fragile coalition authorities. Robert Habeck mentioned €7bn in authorities subsidies beforehand earmarked for a brand new Intel chip manufacturing facility may now be used to plug a gap within the funds, including now was “the worst possible time for the government to fail”.

The Large Learn

Over the previous three years, Europe’s largest financial system has slowly however steadily sunk into disaster. Germany has seen no significant quarterly actual GDP development since late 2021, and annual GDP is poised to shrink for the second yr in a row, with the automobile, chemical compounds and engineering sectors all in a droop. What is going on proper now’s “unprecedented”, one analyst mentioned, and “of a completely different order of magnitude” from earlier crises.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• Israel unbound: Buoyed by navy positive aspects, Benjamin Netanyahu now needs to dismantle Iran’s forces throughout the Center East and reshape the area.

• Chinese language property: After a greater than three-year slowdown, there are some indicators of life within the nation’s actual property market. However interviews in six cities present there are lingering doubts about its longer-term prospects.

• Argentina: Billions of {dollars} of judgments and claims in worldwide courts are piling strain on President Javier Milei’s cash-strapped authorities.

• Commerce coverage: Politicians attain simply for tariffs, however issues similar to local weather change and inequality have more practical however much less standard options, writes economist Minouche Shafik.

Chart of the day

The frenzied contest between Trump and Harris, and Joe Biden earlier than her, has generated reams of knowledge, shedding mild on US public opinion and voter attitudes on all the things from the financial system and international coverage to the candidates’ character. Listed here are seven charts which have outlined the 2024 presidential election.

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