FirstFT: UK shopper confidence falls sharply in September

Good morning. We’ve got updates under on the Center East disaster and the way markets reacted after the Federal Reserve’s bumper price minimize, whereas right now’s featured learn seems to be at Amazon’s hardline stance on in-person work.

However first, we flip to the UK, the place shopper confidence has fallen sharply as households anticipate what Sir Keir Starmer has warned can be a “painful” Funds.

The GfK shopper confidence index — a measure of how individuals view their private funds and broader financial prospects — fell seven factors to minus 20, taking it again to January’s degree. The month-on-month fall was additionally the biggest since October final 12 months and comes regardless of the supply of cheaper dwelling loans, rising actual wages and the retreat of inflation.

A major drop in shopper morale will reinforce considerations that the prime minister and his chancellor, Rachel Reeves, have been too downbeat in regards to the financial system, with one analyst saying: “If they persist in this pessimistic tone, there’s a danger it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.”

And right here’s what I’m holding tabs on right now and over the weekend:

• Financial knowledge: The UK has August public sector funds and retail gross sales figures right now, whereas the US publishes labour knowledge for a similar month.

• UK politics: Nigel Farage will converse on the Reform UK convention in Birmingham after he informed the Monetary Occasions he would hand over his possession of the get together. The Labour get together’s convention begins in Liverpool on Sunday.

• Quad summit: US President Joe Biden hosts the leaders of India, Japan and Australia tomorrow in his dwelling state of Delaware.

5 extra high tales

1. The S&P 500 closed at a report excessive yesterday as buyers wager the Federal Reserve’s jumbo half-point rate of interest minimize would assist ship a delicate touchdown for the US financial system. The US positive aspects capped a worldwide rally that additionally featured robust positive aspects in European and Asian markets. Learn the complete markets replace.

2. Israeli forces struck targets alongside Lebanon’s southern border yesterday as Hizbollah’s chief stated Israel had crossed “all red lines” with this week’s mass detonations of communication units. Hassan Nasrallah referred to as the assaults, which killed 32 individuals and injured hundreds, a “major security and military blow”.

3. Robert Jenrick has accused the UK Treasury of “gaslighting” the British public over the advantages of migration. In an interview with the FT, the frontrunner within the Tory management contest stated the “economic consensus” of the previous quarter century about mass migration was “fundamentally broken”.

4. Nike chief govt John Donahoe will step down subsequent month in an abrupt management change on the world’s largest sportswear maker. The transfer punctuates a interval of dour monetary efficiency, together with a dramatic inventory sell-off after the firm lowered its steering in June. Right here’s who will exchange him.

5. John Paulson has brushed apart Wall Road worries that Donald Trump’s plans to boost tariffs will hurt the financial system, whereas calling for the US to “decouple” from China. In a shift from his earlier criticism of the previous president’s commerce coverage, the billionaire hedge fund supervisor informed the FT that tariffs may assist “level” the taking part in area, saying: “We’re not in the period of free trade.”

How nicely did you retain up with the information this week? Take our quiz.

Information in-depth

This week, Amazon informed greater than 300,000 of its company staff that they need to return to the workplace 5 days per week from the beginning of 2025. By doing so, chief govt Andy Jassy joins leaders together with Jamie Dimon of JPMorgan Chase and Elon Musk at Tesla in pushing for a full return to the workplace. It additionally places Amazon at odds with the softer method taken by most of its tech rivals.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• Lord Waheed Alli: The tycoon has had a knack for backing winners, however his latest donations to Labour leaders have tarnished the federal government’s picture.

• Degrowth: Latest evaluations say the sphere, which requires radical financial change to avoid wasting the planet, gives few tenable coverage options, writes Soumaya Keynes.

• Publish Workplace: The corporate with one of many UK’s worst reputations must minimize prices and supply higher rewards to change into an honest enterprise, writes John Gapper.

• Cricket: The Indian Premier League is remodeling the game, inspiring a flurry of fast-paced competitions aimed toward untapped audiences. Can all of them survive?

Chart of the day

Expectations of speedy rate of interest cuts by the Federal Reserve have been the principle driver of gold’s large rally this 12 months, in accordance with analysts. Decrease borrowing prices enhance the attraction of belongings with no yield, equivalent to bullion, and are additionally more likely to weigh on the greenback, through which gold is denominated. However robust demand from jewellers and central banks have additionally helped buoy costs.

Take a break from the information

Due to a wave of nostalgia, demand for traditional soccer kits is hovering — and so are the costs. HTSI’s Alexander Tyndall seems to be on the rise of the soccer shirt, and why a Holland ’88 package may cost you £900.

Extra contributions from Gordon Smith and Benjamin Wilhelm