FirstFT: Trump’s ‘America First’ agenda will hit international progress, economists inform FT polls

Right this moment’s agenda: “Terrorism” in New Orleans; shipowners swap to smaller vessels; gold set to rise greater; what to look at this 12 months; and FT critics choose the most popular tickets of 2025

Good morning, and completely satisfied new 12 months. We begin 2025 by asking greater than 220 economists how progress will likely be affected by Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda.

What’s the impression of ‘Maganomics’? Whereas his actual plans are nonetheless unclear, most respondents count on the president-elect’s protectionist insurance policies to overshadow the advantages of different components. Many economists within the US additionally imagine the brand new Trump time period will spur inflation and make the Federal Reserve extra cautious about slicing rates of interest.

Nevertheless, most economists — together with these on the IMF, the OECD and the European Fee — forecast stronger progress within the US than in Europe in 2025. One analyst mentioned Trump’s plans, which embody threats of blanket tariffs and mass deportations, could convey some short-term progress however “at the expense of a global slowdown which then will come back and hurt the US later on”.

Why it issues: For the Eurozone, the primary concern is about manufacturing, with the automotive business in Germany — the area’s largest economic system — particularly in danger. Trump’s menace of a 60 per cent levy on China may additionally elevate the prospect of Beijing flooding the area with low cost merchandise. One economist mentioned the UK, although seen as higher insulated from tariffs, may very well be uncovered to a “second-round impact” ought to tariffs weigh on Eurozone progress.

“The Trump administration will be an ‘unpredictability machine’ which will dissuade business and households from taking long-term decisions with ease,” mentioned PwC UK’s chief economist. “This will inevitably have an economic cost.”

Be part of FT consultants on January 23 for a subscriber-only webinar, as they focus on what Trump’s return to the White Home means for America and the world. Register without cost right here. And right here’s what else I’m retaining tabs on immediately:

• Financial knowledge: The Eurozone, US, France and Germany have manufacturing buying managers’ indices, as does the UK, which additionally has the Nationwide home value index.

• Monetary markets: Buying and selling resumes within the US, UK and different nations after yesterday’s break.

For a preview of key occasions in 2025, try the newest version of our Week Forward e-newsletter.

5 extra prime tales

1. The FBI is investigating an “act of terrorism” after a person drove a pick-up truck into a big crowd within the coronary heart of New Orleans yesterday, killing at the very least 15 folks and injuring 35. US President Joe Biden mentioned authorities had been additionally investigating the explosion of a Tesla Cybertruck exterior the Trump lodge in Las Vegas to see if the 2 incidents had been associated. Learn the complete story.

2. Shipowners are shifting on from the period of ordering ever-larger vessels and switching to smaller crafts as a substitute, in line with business knowledge. The change is being prompted by the rerouting of world commerce from China to ports elsewhere in Asia, and the disruption is just anticipated to proceed with Trump’s return to the White Home this month.

3. The worth of gold is about to climb additional in 2025 though the tempo of beneficial properties is more likely to sluggish after final 12 months’s bumper 27 per cent rally. Analysts surveyed by the Monetary Occasions count on gold to achieve about $2,795 per troy ounce by the tip of the 12 months, or about 7 per cent above present ranges. Right here’s why the worth of the yellow steel is more likely to rise.

4. Unique: Job losses at European automotive half suppliers greater than doubled in 2024 because the slowdown within the continent’s automotive business hit the fortunes of its manufacturing provide chain. Job creation has additionally slowed and there have been greater than 58,000 web job losses throughout the business in Europe since 2020.

5. Russian gasoline flows by way of Ukraine stopped within the early hours of yesterday after a transit deal between the 2 nations expired within the wake of Moscow’s full-scale invasion. The pipeline was one of many final two routes nonetheless carrying Russian gasoline to Europe, practically three years into the full-scale battle. EU nations will lose about 5 per cent of gasoline imports in the course of winter.

What to look at in 2025

Monetary Occasions reporters take into account the rise of “sovereign” synthetic intelligence, the prospects for electrical automotive gross sales and whether or not the “masters of the universe” will likely be investing your pension financial savings, in our survey of enterprise traits within the 12 months forward.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• Crypto’s golden period: The sector expects lighter regulation and wider adoption below Donald Trump, however some fear about systemic dangers.

• Photo voltaic sector: The business is dealing with “a lot of distress” after a collapse in demand triggered a wave of bankruptcies in Germany, its most vital European market.

• Monetary to-do checklist: From money-saving work perks to investments and tax planning, Claer Barrett has 10 suggestions to get your funds in form this new 12 months.

• ‘Friendshoring’: The ugly, eviscerating saga round Nippon Metal’s takeover bid for US Metal exhibits why it’s arduous to be a pal of America, writes Leo Lewis.

Chart of the day

Nvidia has emerged as a vital backer of start-ups attempting to realize from the factitious intelligence revolution its chips are powering. The semiconductor group has been pumping ever higher sums into a few of its personal prospects, investing $1bn in AI corporations in 2024.

Take a break from the information

The FT’s critics choose the most anticipated scorching tickets in 2025, from movie, theatre, dance and TV to artwork exhibitions, video games, pop and classical music.