FirstFT: Trump weighs Iran strike as US army property shift into place

As we speak’s agenda: Lockheed’s UK pitch; Fed cuts US outlook; China’s drone push; Leo Lewis on Trump’s “stick-holder capitalism”; and is AGI one other Silicon Valley buzzword?

Good morning. We’ll begin with the most recent on the Center East struggle and its world fallout.

The state of affairs now: Donald Trump has made his most express feedback but about potential US army motion in opposition to Iran, saying: “I may do it. I may not do it.” The president additionally mentioned subsequent week or “maybe less than a week” could be “very big”, hinting at a potential timeframe for his resolution. The nuclear-powered USS Nimitz, the US Navy’s lead ship in its class of plane carriers, is transferring to be part of different American army property within the area. Trump mentioned Tehran wished to barter, however Iran has denied his account.

International response: UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer has put the UK cupboard on alert for potential US motion, along with his group weighing learn how to reply ought to Tehran threaten British property within the Center East. They mentioned whether or not Trump would possibly search to strike Iran’s nuclear services from a joint US-UK air base at Diego Garcia within the Indian Ocean, which might draw Britain nearer to the battle. In the meantime, Russian President Vladimir Putin mentioned he has had discussions with the US, Iran and Israel however mentioned the answer was as much as the fighters.

Influence on vitality: Oil costs have steadied after final week’s surge, with crude exports from the Center East largely unaffected. However costs to constitution giant oil tankers crusing by means of the Strait of Hormuz have greater than doubled since Israel struck Iran. Roughly one-third of the world’s seaborne oil provide flows by means of the slim waterway separating Iran from the Gulf States. Demand for different vitality sources, resembling palm or soyabean oil, has additionally elevated in latest days.

Observe our reside weblog for the most recent updates.

• Iranian casualties: Israel’s missile strikes have eradicated Iran’s prime army leaders and nuclear specialists. Listed here are the important thing figures who’ve been killed.

• Secret struggle: Hacked telephones, deep-cover brokers and miniaturised weapons techniques had been a part of the covert marketing campaign that preceded Israel’s assault on Iran.

• ‘Let them kill us’: Tens of millions of Iranians are refusing to go away Tehran regardless of Israel’s lethal strikes and warnings to evacuate.

• Steve Bannon: Trump’s former adviser has warned that US involvement in one other struggle within the Center East would “tear the country apart”.

Right here’s what else we’re conserving tabs on at this time:

• UK rates of interest: The Financial institution of England is anticipated to maintain borrowing prices unchanged, with UK inflation effectively above its official goal.

• Chatham Home: The think-tank holds its flagship convention in London, with former MI6 chief Sir John Sawers and the FT’s Martin Wolf anticipated to talk.

• TikTok ban: Trump is anticipated to lengthen at this time’s deadline for Chinese language proprietor ByteDance to promote its stake or face a ban.

• US markets closed: The nation marks the tip of slavery after the civil struggle with the Juneteenth vacation.

5 extra prime tales

1. Unique: Lockheed Martin has approached the British authorities to supply assist in constructing a brand new missile defence system for the nation. The US defence group mentioned it will be blissful to associate with whomever “the UK wanted us to work with”. Learn the total story.

2. Unique: Microsoft is ready to stroll away from talks with OpenAI over the way forward for its multibillion-dollar alliance, because the ChatGPT maker seeks to transform itself right into a for-profit firm. The 2 sides stay unable to agree on important points such because the dimension of the software program group’s future stake within the start-up.

3. The Federal Reserve reduce its outlook for the US financial system yesterday, with policymakers break up on whether or not they would have the ability to scale back rates of interest in any respect this yr as Trump’s tariffs deliver dangers of upper inflation. Hours earlier than the choice, the US president referred to as Fed chair Jay Powell “stupid” and requested whether or not he might “appoint myself” to the central financial institution.

4. Unique: Thames Water’s collectors are demanding exemption from key UK environmental legal guidelines, in response to paperwork seen by the FT. The lenders, who’re offering a £5bn backup rescue of Britain’s greatest water firm, additionally need fines amounting to thousands and thousands of kilos eliminated.

5. The US clear vitality sector is going through a wave of bankruptcies as Congress weighs a spending invoice that might intestine clear vitality tax credit which have saved the business afloat. Since retaking Congress and the White Home, Republicans have moved swiftly to dismantle Biden-era funding in renewable vitality sources.

The Large Learn

Synthetic normal intelligence has been tipped as the following huge breakthrough out of Silicon Valley, with proponents from OpenAI to Google DeepMind predicting it will possibly turbocharge the financial system, remedy ailments and “elevate humanity”. However is AGI a scientific purpose — or simply a advertising buzzword?

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• Chinese language drones: Beijing has pushed the nation to provide thousands and thousands of unmanned plane. Now, it needs the “low-altitude economy” to turn out to be a driver of development.

• Julius Baer: Stefan Bollinger, a former Goldman Sachs banker, takes on the Swiss wealth supervisor’s troubled legacy as its new chief government.

• ‘Stick-holder capitalism’: Nippon Metal’s $15bn deal for US Metal is the primary huge cross-border deal beneath Trump’s new style of capitalism, writes Leo Lewis.

Chart of the day 

Universities in Asia had a powerful displaying within the newest QS world rankings, whereas the vast majority of UK establishments dropped down the checklist for a second straight yr. Right here’s how particular person establishments carried out.

Take a break from the information

Now’s the time for a enjoyable, no-nonsense, beach-ready watch. Louis Cheslaw evaluations reasonably priced and waterproof timepieces for the summer time.