FirstFT: Israel launches first land operation towards Hizbollah since 2006

Immediately’s agenda: Bets on US election volatility rise; American dock staff strike; EU warned towards AI overregulation; Ukraine’s darkest hour; and Bretton Woods at a crossroads

Good morning. Simply hours in the past, Israel mentioned it had launched “limited, localised, and targeted ground raids” in southern Lebanon. The raids had been accompanied by renewed strikes in Beirut’s southern suburbs, whereas native media reported Israel had additionally struck Lebanon’s largest Palestinian refugee camp for the primary time. Right here’s what to anticipate.

Why a floor offensive? Israel has mentioned the objective of the operations, which it added had been backed by artillery and air help, is to return displaced Israeli residents to the nation’s north. An individual who has labored with Benjamin Netanyahu mentioned the Israeli prime minister can be betting that holding Lebanese territory would give him political leverage in negotiations over a brand new established order, each time a ceasefire is reached.

How far will Israel go? Former senior Israeli safety officers say the army is unlikely to try an invasion of a scale just like Gaza. As an alternative, they count on the main target to be on the menace posed by Hizbollah’s anti-tank missiles on the border, degrading its firepower and on pushing the militant group’s forces north of Lebanon’s Litani river.

Officers have acknowledged the dangers of protracted fight in terrain that Hizbollah is aware of inside out, and the place Israel’s tech and intelligence benefits rely for much less. It might additionally elevate the chance of direct hostilities with Iran. There are fears of an open-ended occupation of Lebanon’s border space, and US officers mentioned Washington had sought to restrict the scope and period of the operations in talks with the Israeli authorities.

We have now extra particulars on the newest stage of Israel’s intensifying marketing campaign, and extra perception under into what this implies for the area:

• Opinion: We’re witnessing a considerable shift within the steadiness of energy within the Center East, writes John Sawers, former chief of Britain’s MI6.

• The FT View: As Israel prepares to mark the grim anniversary of Hamas’s horrific October 7 assault, Netanyahu ought to take his wins and chart a brand new course, writes our editorial board.

Scroll down for as we speak’s featured graphic, which reveals the Israeli army’s huge attain within the Center East. And right here’s our packed agenda for the remainder of as we speak:

• Financial information: Manufacturing buying managers’ indices are due for Canada, the Eurozone, France, Germany, Italy, the UK and the US. The EU additionally has flash inflation estimates.

• Europe: Strikes and protests are anticipated throughout France as Prime Minister Michel Barnier delivers his inaugural coverage speech to the Nationwide Meeting. In Brussels, former Dutch premier Mark Rutte takes over from Jens Stoltenberg as secretary-general of Nato.

• Americas: Claudia Sheinbaum assumes workplace as Mexico’s first feminine president. Within the US, vice-presidential hopefuls Tim Walz and JD Vance are set to debate tonight, whereas about 600 individuals are nonetheless lacking within the wake of Hurricane Helene.

• Corporations: Nationwide’s acquisition of Virgin Money UK and Thoma Bravo’s takeover of Darktrace are anticipated to take impact. Greggs has a buying and selling replace, whereas Nike and James Halstead report outcomes.

5 extra prime tales

1. Traders are turning to advanced derivatives trades as they search to revenue from an unsure US presidential race, which stays extraordinarily shut with fewer than 30 buying and selling days to go. As an alternative of predicting who will win, a rising variety of traders are betting on volatility rising sharply within the coming weeks. Extra particulars right here.

• US market: The White Home race is popping America into an rising market — filled with peril and promise however most of all unpredictability, writes Rana Foroohar.

2. Ports alongside the US east and Gulf coasts shut down early as we speak as about 25,000 dock staff went on strike for the primary time in practically 5 a long time. Three dozen ports stretching from Maine to Texas had been affected. The ports collectively deal with one-quarter of the nation’s worldwide commerce, price $3tn a 12 months, in keeping with The Convention Board, which warned the work stoppage would “paralyse US trade”.

3. Unique: The chief govt of SAP has cautioned EU policymakers towards over-regulating synthetic intelligence and widening the already giant hole with the US within the transformative but nascent sector. Christian Klein informed the Monetary Occasions that if it was simpler to check AI fashions in America, Europe could be at a “massive disadvantage”.

4. Unique: The UK media regulator will take “strong action” towards tech firms that break new guidelines on content material moderation, the company’s head has informed the FT, after web exercise that sparked violence throughout Britain in August. Ofcom chief Melanie Dawes mentioned the UK’s On-line Security Act, which is able to largely come into pressure subsequent 12 months, provides the watchdog “some pretty strong powers”.

5. EY has appointed monetary providers boss Anna Anthony as its new UK managing associate after a three-way race to steer the accounting agency’s British and Irish companies. She’s going to develop into the primary lady to completely run a Massive 4 operation day-to-day within the UK when she takes up her new function in January. Right here’s what we learn about Anthony.

The Massive Learn

Ukraine is heading into what could also be its darkest second of the conflict to date. It’s shedding on the battlefield within the east of the nation, with Russian forces advancing relentlessly and the prospect of winter vitality shortages. As Volodymyr Zelenskyy returns residence from the US, he faces an exhausted nation and growing stress to discover a negotiated settlement, with troopers on the entrance fearing a “forever war”.

We’re additionally studying . . .

• Tory troubles: The Conservatives’ largest downside? Age, writes Stephen Bush. The occasion must enchantment to profitable economically liberal graduates once more.

• Opus Dei: Argentine prosecutors have accused the Catholic group’s senior leaders of overseeing the exploitation and trafficking of ladies.

• Bretton Woods: With the world in recent disaster, daring motion is once more wanted from the IMF and World Financial institution, writes former UN official Mark Malloch-Brown and others.

Graphic of the day

“There is no place in Iran or the Middle East that the long arm of Israel cannot reach,” Benjamin Netanyahu mentioned final week. The prime minister demonstrated this on Sunday: Israel bombed Houthi websites 1,800km away in Yemen. A former official mentioned the strike signalled that Israel had the potential to launch long-distance operations towards Iran as effectively.

Take a break from the information

They are saying by no means to fulfill your heroes. What about revisiting former houses? Talking from private expertise, Sophie Heawood advises towards it: seeing what the brand new house owners have completed hardly ever works out effectively.

Further contributions from Gordon Smith and Benjamin Wilhelm