FirstFT: Europe scrambles to salvage Ukraine peace hopes

Immediately’s agenda: Trump tariffs replace; crypto costs soar; Israel halts Gaza assist; the inventory market’s America bubble; Martin Wolf on defence spending; and Netflix chief’s personal ski resort

Good morning. We begin the working week in London, the place European leaders are scrambling to salvage hopes for peace in Ukraine after an explosive conflict between Donald Trump and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

What’s being proposed now: Britain and France are to steer a European plan to finish the conflict. This contains an preliminary one-month truce with Russia, masking air, sea and infrastructure. Europe would deploy a “coalition of the willing” to safe any ceasefire, mentioned UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer, however the “effort must have strong US backing”. One other a part of the plan includes Kyiv signing a proposed minerals take care of the US, giving Washington an financial stake in a peace settlement. Trump had needed Zelenskyy to signal the settlement in Washington final Friday, earlier than their assembly fell aside.

Will the plan succeed? There are a number of challenges. Whereas Starmer has mentioned the UK is ready to ship troops, many European states are reluctant to commit — up to now Germany, Spain and Poland haven’t supplied to assist. One other is the poisonous relationship between Zelenskyy and Trump, which Starmer and his French and Italian counterparts plan to avoid by performing as intermediaries. Ukraine’s president has additionally rejected requires a ceasefire with out detailed safety ensures. Starmer and French President Emmanuel Macron have up to now been unsuccessful in persuading Trump to supply US cowl for any peacekeeping pressure.

Listed below are extra particulars from the brand new plan, and we have now extra evaluation on the scenario beneath:

• Go deeper: Starmer and Macron have made it clear that Europe has to show to Trump that it’s a part of the answer to the disaster by itself continent, not a part of the issue.

• Trump TV: The president’s remark that his bust-up with Zelenskyy would “make great television” was fairly telling, writes Jemima Kelly.

• An actual peace: Negotiations over Ukraine are lacking a human dimension, writes Nobel Peace laureate and human rights lawyer Oleksandra Matviichuk.

And right here’s what else we’re conserving tabs on at the moment:

• Financial knowledge: The US, EU, UK, Canada, France, Germany and Italy challenge manufacturing buying managers’ indices, whereas the EU additionally releases its preliminary harmonised index of shopper costs for February.

• Jes Staley trial: The previous Barclays CEO will argue the financial institution had a “clear understanding” of the extent of his ties with Jeffrey Epstein in a landmark trial opening in London at the moment.

• Nuclear weapons: The States Events to the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons meets on the UN in New York.

• Cell World Congress: The world’s largest cell telecoms trade conference returns to Barcelona.

5 extra high tales

1. Donald Trump will impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada tomorrow however remains to be deciding on the degrees, the US commerce secretary has mentioned. The president has additionally vowed to impose an extra 10 per cent levy on China the identical day, which is “set”, mentioned Howard Lutnick. Right here’s the most recent on Trump’s tariff plans.

• Market response: Forex markets are more and more dismissive of Trump’s tariff threats, elevating the chance of massive swings if he follows via on them this week.

2. Cryptocurrency costs jumped yesterday after Trump named tokens that may be included in a US strategic reserve. The president mentioned bitcoin and ethereum can be “the heart of the reserve”, including that it might additionally embrace Solana, XRP and Cardano. Right here’s how strikes to construct the nationwide crypto stockpile are progressing.

3. Unique: Deutsche Financial institution clashed with the European Central Financial institution all through 2024 over issues the German lender could also be underestimating what number of loans would bitter, individuals conversant in the matter informed the Monetary Instances. The ECB flagged issues over Deutsche’s credit score threat administration and its threat fashions on a number of events. Olaf Storbeck and Florian Müller have extra particulars from Frankfurt.

4. An in depth ally of Vladimir Putin has been engineering a restart of Russia’s Nord Stream 2 fuel pipeline to Europe with the backing of US buyers. In keeping with individuals conscious of the discussions, the efforts have been the brainchild of former spy Matthias Warnig, who till 2023 ran Nord Stream 2’s mother or father firm for the Kremlin-controlled fuel big Gazprom. Learn the complete story.

5. Israel has halted all humanitarian assist to Gaza after Hamas rejected a revised proposal to increase the ceasefire that lapsed early yesterday and condemned the most recent plan as “manipulation”. The proposal, purportedly drafted by US particular envoy Steve Witkoff, would have prolonged the truce for an additional six weeks. Listed below are extra particulars on the phrases.

Information in-depth

How massive is the inventory market’s America bubble? US shares’ big surge for the reason that international monetary disaster means they account for nearly two-thirds of the world’s investable market, pushed in recent times by the substitute intelligence increase. However a latest pullback in tech shares has underlined the rising nervousness round hovering valuations in a market that has swallowed an ever-larger share of worldwide buyers’ allocations.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• US Congress: America’s first department of presidency must be performing as a verify on Trump’s energy seize, writes our editorial board. As a substitute, it has been lacking in motion.

• Tariffs: The enduring Chevrolet Silverado has been one of many US’s hottest pick-up vans for many years, nevertheless it might now turn into certainly one of the most important victims of Trump’s commerce conflict.

• Premier League: Richard Masters, CEO of the world’s most-watched soccer league, speaks to the FT on conserving the peace between its 20 ultra-competitive golf equipment.

• Nuclear vitality: Nations wish to squeeze extra electrical energy from ageing energy crops to assist meet international demand, however the technique has its personal challenges.

Chart of the day

The “peace dividend” has ended with the return of conflict to Europe. Britain can and should spend extra on defence, writes Martin Wolf, whether it is to have a voice within the joint defence of its continent and even defend itself.

Take a break from the information . . . 

Reed Hastings, the billionaire founding father of Netflix, has created a members-only ski resort on Utah’s Powder Mountain. He’s strolling a gentrification tightrope — and a ski trade in flux is watching each step.