By Orhan Qereman, Tom Perry and Tuvan Gumrukcu
QAMISHLI, Syria/BEIRUT/ANKARA (Reuters) -With hostile Turkish-backed teams mobilising towards them in Syria’s north, and Damascus dominated by a gaggle pleasant to Ankara, Syria’s essential Kurdish factions are on the again foot as they search to protect political positive factors carved out throughout 13 years of struggle.
A part of a stateless ethnic group straddling Iraq, Iran, Turkey, Armenia and Syria, Kurds have to this point been among the many few winners of the Syrian battle, controlling practically 1 / 4 of the nation and main a robust armed group that may be a key U.S. ally in countering Islamic State.
However the energy stability has tilted towards them because the Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) swept into Damascus this month, toppling President Bashar al-Assad, two analysts and a senior Western diplomat instructed Reuters.
The seismic change in Syria is predicted to yield deeper Turkish sway simply as a change of U.S. administration is elevating questions over how lengthy Washington will preserve backing the nation’s Kurdish-led forces.
For Turkey, the Kurdish factions signify a nationwide safety menace. Ankara views them as an extension of the Kurdistan Employees Celebration (PKK), which has been waging an insurgency towards the Turkish state since 1984 and is deemed a terrorist group by Turkey, america and different powers.
The Syrian Kurdish teams “are in deep, deep trouble”, mentioned Aron Lund, a fellow at Century Worldwide, a U.S.-based assume tank.
“The balance has shifted fundamentally in Syria to the advantage of Turkey-backed or Turkey-aligned factions, and Turkey seems determined to exploit this to the fullest.”
The shift has been mirrored in renewed combating for management of the north, the place Turkey-backed armed teams often known as the Syrian Nationwide Military (SNA) have made navy advances towards the Kurdish-led Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).
Fanar al-Kait, a senior official within the Kurdish-led regional administration, instructed Reuters that the ouster of Assad, whose Arab nationalist Baath Celebration oppressed Kurds for many years, offered an opportunity to sew the fragmented nation again collectively.
He mentioned the administration is prepared for dialogue with Turkey, however the battle within the north confirmed Ankara had “very bad intentions”.
“This will certainly push the region towards … a new conflict,” he added.
Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan mentioned on Friday he anticipated overseas states would withdraw assist for Kurdish fighters following Assad’s toppling, as Ankara seeks to isolate the Folks’s Safety Items (YPG), the Kurdish militia that spearheaded the SDF alliance.
Responding to questions from Reuters, a Turkish official mentioned the basis explanation for the battle is “not Turkey’s view towards the region; it is that the PKK/YPG is a terrorist organisation”.
“The PKK/YPG elements must lay down their arms and leave Syria,” the official mentioned.
SDF commander Mazloum Abdi, in a Reuters interview on Thursday, acknowledged the presence of PKK fighters in Syria for the primary time, saying that they had helped battle Islamic State and would return dwelling within the occasion a complete ceasefire was agreed with Turkey. He denied any organisational ties with the PKK.
FEMINISM AND ISLAMISM
In the meantime, in Damascus, the brand new management is displaying heat in direction of Ankara and indicating it needs to carry all Syria again below central authority – a possible problem to the decentralisation Kurds favour.
Whereas Turkey supplies direct backing to the SNA, it together with different states deems HTS a terrorist group due to its al Qaeda previous.
Regardless of this, Ankara is believed to have vital sway over the group. A senior Western diplomat mentioned: “The Turks can clearly influence them more than anyone else”.
HTS chief Ahmed al-Sharaa instructed a Turkish newspaper that Assad’s ouster was “not only the victory of the Syrian people, but also the Turkish people”.
The Turkish official mentioned HTS was not and by no means had been below Ankara’s management, calling it a construction “we were communicating with due to circumstances” and including many Western states had been additionally doing so.
Syrian Kurdish teams led by the Democratic Union Celebration (PYD) and the affiliated YPG militia took management of a lot of the north after the rebellion towards Assad started in 2011. They established their very own administration, whereas insisting their intention was autonomy, not independence.
Their politics, emphasising socialism and feminism, differ starkly from HTS’ Islamism.
Their space grew as U.S.-led forces partnered with the SDF within the marketing campaign towards Islamic State, capturing Arab-majority areas.
The Turkey-backed SNA teams stepped up their marketing campaign towards the SDF as Assad was being toppled, seizing the town of Manbij on Dec. 9
Washington brokered a ceasefire, however the SDF has mentioned Turkey and its allies haven’t abided by it, and a Turkish defence ministry official mentioned there was no such deal.
U.S. assist for the SDF has been a degree of stress with its NATO ally, Turkey. Washington views the SDF as a key associate in countering Islamic State, which Secretary of State Antony Blinken has warned will attempt to use this era to re-establish capabilities in Syria. The SDF continues to be guarding tens of hundreds of detainees linked to the militant group.
Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler mentioned final weekend that Turkey noticed no signal of an Islamic State resurgence in Syria. On Friday, Turkey’s overseas minister, Hakan Fidan, instructed his German counterpart throughout talks in Ankara that options wanted to be discovered for the administration of camps and prisons the place the detainees are being held.
Individually, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for Close to Jap Affairs Barbara Leaf mentioned on Friday that Washington was working with Ankara and the SDF to search out “a managed transition in terms of SDF’s role in that part of the country.”
President Joe Biden’s administration has mentioned that U.S. troops will keep on in Syria, however President-elect Donald Trump might take away them when he takes workplace on Jan. 20.
LETTER TO TRUMP
Throughout his first administration, Trump tried to drag out of Syria however confronted strain at dwelling and from U.S. allies.
In a Dec. 17 letter to Trump, reviewed by Reuters, high Syrian Kurdish official Ilham Ahmed mentioned Turkey was getting ready to invade the northeast earlier than he takes workplace.
Turkey’s plan “threatens to undo years of progress in securing stability and fighting terrorism”, she wrote. “We believe you have the power to prevent this catastrophe.”
Requested for remark, Trump-Vance transition spokesman Brian Hughes mentioned: “We continue to monitor the situation in Syria. President Trump is committed to diminishing threats to peace and stability in the Middle East and to protecting Americans here at home.”
Trump mentioned on Dec. 16 that Turkey will “hold the key” to what occurs in Syria however has not introduced his plans for U.S. forces stationed there.
“The Kurds are in an unenviable position,” mentioned Joshua Landis, a Syria knowledgeable on the College of Oklahoma. “Once Damascus consolidates its power, it will move on the region. The U.S. can’t remain there forever.”
HTS chief Sharaa instructed British broadcaster the BBC that Kurds had been “part of our people” and “there should be no division of Syria”, including arms must be totally within the state’s fingers.
Sharaa acknowledged certainly one of Turkey’s essential issues – the presence of non-Syrian Kurdish fighters in Syria – and mentioned: “We do not accept that Syrian lands threaten and destabilize Turkey or other places.”
He pledged to work by means of dialogue and negotiations to search out “a peaceful formula to solve the problem,” saying he believed preliminary contacts had been established “between the Kurds in northeastern Syria or the SDF organisation”.
Kait, the Kurdish official, mentioned his administration wished “a democratic Syria, a decentralized Syria, a Syria that represents all Syrians of all sects, religions and ethnicities,” describing these as pink traces. The SDF could be “a nucleus of the coming Syrian army,” he added.
SDF commander Abdi, in his Reuters interview, confirmed that contact had been established with HTS to keep away from clashes between their forces however mentioned Ankara would attempt to drive a wedge between Damascus and the Kurdish-led administration.
Nonetheless, he mentioned there was robust assist from worldwide events, together with the U.S.-led coalition, for the SDF becoming a member of “the new political phase” in Damascus, calling it “a great opportunity”.
“We are preparing, after a total ceasefire between us and between Turkey and the affiliated factions, to join this phase,” he mentioned.
(Orhan Qereman reported from Qamishli, Syria, Tom Perry from Beirut and Tuvan Gumrukcu from Ankara; Further reporting by John Irish in Paris, Humeyra Pamuk in Washington and Daren Butler in Istanbul; Writing by Tom Perry; Modifying by Alexandra Zavis)
