China’s commerce surplus surges 20% to a file $1.2 trillion, even with Trump’s tariffs

HONG KONG — China’s commerce surplus surged to a file of just about $1.2 trillion in 2025, the federal government mentioned Wednesday, as exports to different nations made up for slowing shipments to the U.S. below President Donald Trump’s onslaught of upper tariffs.

China’s exports rose 5.5% for the entire of final yr to $3.77 trillion, customs information confirmed, as Chinese language automakers and different producers expanded into markets throughout the globe. Imports flatlined at $2.58 trillion. The 2024 commerce surplus was over $992 billion.

In December, China’s exports climbed 6.6% from the yr earlier than in greenback phrases, higher than economists’ estimates and better than November’s 5.9% year-on-year improve. Imports in December had been up 5.7% year-on-year, in comparison with November’s 1.9%.

China’s commerce surplus surpassed the $1 trillion mark for the primary time in November, when the commerce surplus reached $1.08 trillion within the first 11 months of final yr.

Economists count on exports will proceed to assist China’s financial system this yr, regardless of commerce friction and geopolitical tensions.

“We continue to expect exports to act as a big growth driver in 2026,” mentioned Jacqueline Rong, chief China economist at BNP Paribas.

Whereas China’s exports to the U.S. have fallen sharply for many of final yr since Trump returned to workplace and escalated his commerce conflict with the world’s second-largest financial system, that decline has been largely offset by shipments to different markets in South America, Southeast Asia, Africa and Europe.

For the entire of 2025, China’s exports to the U.S. fell 20%. In distinction, exports to Africa surged 26%. These to Southeast Asian nations jumped 13%; to the European Union 8%, and to Latin America, 7%.

Sturdy international demand for pc chips and different units and the supplies wanted to make them had been amongst classes that supported China’s exports, analysts mentioned. Automobile exports additionally grew final yr.

China’s sturdy exports have helped maintain its financial system rising at an annual fee near its official goal of about 5%. However that has triggered alarm in nations that worry a flood of low cost imports are damaging native industries.

China faces a “severe and complex” exterior commerce surroundings in 2026, Wang Jun, vice minister of China’s customs administration, advised reporters in Beijing. However he mentioned China’s “foreign trade fundamentals remain solid.”

The pinnacle of the Worldwide Financial Fund final month known as for China to repair its financial imbalances and pace up its shift from reliance on exports by boosting home demand and funding.

A protracted property downturn in China after the authorities cracked down on extreme borrowing, triggering defaults by many builders, continues to be weighing on shopper confidence and home demand.

China’s leaders have made rising spending by customers and companies a spotlight of financial coverage, however actions taken thus far have had a restricted influence. That included authorities trade-in subsidies over the previous months that inspired customers to purchase newer, extra power environment friendly objects, corresponding to house home equipment and autos, and substitute older fashions.

“We expect domestic demand growth to stay tepid,” mentioned Rong of BNP Paribas. “In fact, the policy boost to domestic demand looks weaker than last year — in particular the fiscal subsidy program for consumer goods.”

Gary Ng, a senior economist at French funding financial institution Natixis, forecasts that China’s exports will develop about 3% in 2026, lower than the 5.5% development in 2025. With sluggish import development, he expects China’s commerce surplus to stay above $1 trillion this yr.