(Reuters) – U.S. inventory futures slipped and the greenback edged decrease in early Asian buying and selling on Wednesday as Republican Donald Trump and Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris confronted one another for the primary time, with some analysts saying Harris put in a barely stronger efficiency.
On-line prediction market PredictIt’s 2024 presidential common election market confirmed Harris’ odds at bettering to 56% from 52% instantly earlier than the controversy, whereas Trump’s odds slipped to 48% from 51%.
Inventory futures eased throughout the debate and after it concluded, with the E-minis down 0.5% and E-minis off 0.65%. The , which measures the U.S. forex’s power in opposition to six main friends, slipped 0.23%.
COMMENTS:
QUINCY KROSBY, CHIEF GLOBAL STRATEGIST FOR LPL FINANCIAL
“It was gentle on specifics from both facet and I believe that those that adhere to Trump are going to imagine that he received the controversy and people who are loyal to Democrats will suppose that she received the controversy.
“The question is: what about independents, what about undecideds? It’s difficult to see how they could have made up their minds based on tonight’s debate, other than the possibility of the overall performance, as opposed to specifics. For both sides, they were light on specifics.”
“If style matters and being calm and prosecuting your case for why temperamentally you should be president, then we will see the results in the market. Either the market will be favoring what we know, not from tonight, from the Trump portfolio, vs the Kamala Harris portfolio. This will manifest itself in the market tomorrow. Otherwise, we will go back to square one where we were at 4 p.m. Eastern Time when the market closed.”
ERIC BEYRICH, PORTFOLIO MANAGER, SOUND INCOME STRATEGIES, WESTCHESTER, NYC
“Neither one in all them made robust financial factors, however general Harris got here out of this higher than Trump. I didn’t hear something reassuring from both candidate. If something I believe they launched higher uncertainty. Markets actually don’t need strident statements; they need readability.
“He didn’t give us clarity, and she revealed she’s much further to left than she has presented herself previously, as seen in her comments about health care being a fundamental right. I don’t think that will be welcomed by markets, or that they’ll be very happy about what it says about her policies more broadly. What the market would like to see are some rational economic policies, and there wasn’t much to give them comfort on that in this debate.”
SHIER LEE LIM, LEAD FX & MACRO STRATEGIST FOR APAC AT CONVERA
“The Harris-Trump debate does not seem to be having a major impact on markets so far, which aligns with the relatively low volatility expectations heading into the event. Option markets were only pricing in 73bp breakevens for and about 1.1% for the S&P 500 around the debate, which appears low considering the debate’s timing just before Wednesday’s U.S. CPI release.
“That stated, the controversy might nonetheless show to be a big catalyst for shifting election possibilities. Betting markets at the moment give Trump a slight edge within the general election, with platforms like Polymarket displaying Trump with a 52% probability in comparison with 45% for Harris. Nonetheless, the race seems tight, with some variation throughout prediction markets.”
“The election consequence might have significant implications for fiscal coverage and monetary markets. Republicans are reportedly contemplating tax cuts offset by tariffs, whereas Democrats might pursue company and wealth tax hikes to fund spending will increase.”
BRIAN NICK, HEAD OF PORTFOLIO STRATEGY, NEWEDGE WEALTH, STAMFORD, CT.
“They did not talk about a lot that was related to buyers in any element. The following president goes to must take care of taxes and so they haven’t even handled it. By way of laws dealing with the subsequent president, that’s the greatest one for markets and buyers.
“Some of the issues that I still have questions about — like Donald Trump’s views on removing some of the Federal Reserve’s independence — didn’t arise. But overall there wasn’t much of substance that was market moving. And I’m not surprised to not see much of a market reaction.”
SONU VARGHESE, GLOBAL MACRO STRATEGIST, CARSON GROUP
“I think the debate is not going to change many minds, as voters remain closely divided. The only indication is that Harris moved ahead in prediction markets but that still keeps the race very close,”
“There wasn’t much substantive discussion of policy. Neither candidate advocated for vastly different economic policies than currently in place. Ultimately, a lot of economic policies that we see implemented next year will depend on the makeup of the Senate and the House, and negotiations related to the extension of the Tax Cut and Jobs Act (which former President Trump signed into law in 2017).”
SHOKI OMORI, CHIEF JAPAN DESK STRATEGIST, MIZUHO SECURITIES
“Harris started off quite nervously, but then she gained confidence and set out her economic policies very clearly. That gave some relief to the market,” weakening the greenback, “although it’s hard to say at this point what the direction for the dollar will be” within the occasion of a Harris or Trump presidency.
GREGORY FARANELLO, HEAD OF U.S. RATES, AMERIVET SECURITIES
“Net net, I thought Vice President Harris, definitely did well. She held her own. But you know, we still didn’t learn anything new other than he said, she said,”
“There was no major knockout blow. We’ll have to see what the polls bring in the days ahead but you know it’s going to be a tight election and the market is going to be probably focused more on monetary policy short term than the election.”
STEVE SOSNICK, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, INTERACTIVE BROKERS, GREENWICH, CT.
“It’s all been fairly general during the debate. They have talked about chips and energy and solar, but not really any specific details. There hasn’t been anything for markets to sink their teeth into.”
“Because the margin is so narrow, I think markets don’t know what to make of the whole campaign at this stage. It does appear that Harris is outpointing Trump, but I don’t know that the markets have voted yet. And I don’t know if the people who need to be convinced are watching. We may see more of a reaction when the top soundbites from this debate start rippling out and being discussed in the next few days.”
VASU MENON, MANAGING DIRECTOR OF INVESTMENT STRATEGY, OCBC SINGAPORE
“Today’s debate is not going to move the needle. Neither came our clear winner. How the economy performs in the coming weeks as seen in the data, especially jobs data, and what they each say at their campaign trail in the run up to November 5 will decide the final outcome.
“Harris comes by means of with higher insurance policies for the center class whereas Trump has positioned himself because the robust chief American wants to face as much as nations which have taken it without any consideration. The query is will People vote primarily based on insurance policies or rhetoric. The jury remains to be out and buyers will probably be left guessing and that solely means extra market volatility within the run as much as U.S. elections in November.”
ROB CARNELL, ING’S REGIONAL HEAD OF RESEARCH FOR ASIA-PACIFIC
“I do not suppose there’s rather a lot for markets right here… there does not appear to be rather a lot that appears to be notably financial proper now. I believe Harris appears to be managing Trump fairly properly.”
“You’d anticipate if he (Trump) was doing higher, that you just’d see a powerful greenback popping out of this. So I suppose that is the way in which the market is taking a look at it. It is a slight lean in direction of Harris.”
KEN CHEUNG, DIRECTOR, FX STRATEGY, MIZUHO SECURITIES ASIA, HONG KONG
“Among the U.S. greenback motion is pushed by the controversy efficiency. I believe the interpretation, for the , is that it is rather delicate to Trump’s coverage on the tariff facet.”
JACK ABLIN, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT CRESSET CAPITAL.
“This debate does not appear to be altering the truth that it should be a really shut election.”
“They’re overlaying all the problems; the moderators are doing an excellent job of managing the controversy and voters are getting a reasonably good depiction of the insurance policies and temperaments of each candidates.”
“However notion is actuality and if individuals do not feel their lives are bettering, that may form their habits in November.”
KARL SCHAMOTTA, CHIEF MARKET STRATEGIST, AT CORPAY IN TORONTO
“No knockout blow has been landed, but the dollar is edging lower as Kamala Harris opens a marginal lead over Donald Trump in prediction markets.”
“Currencies that might find themselves on the front line in another trade war – the Mexican peso, Canadian dollar and Chinese renminbi – are advancing amid muted volumes.”
