By Laurie Chen, James Pomfret, Antoni Slodkowski
BEIJING/HONG KONG (Reuters) -Simply over a yr in the past, China gave Bashar al-Assad and his spouse a heat welcome throughout their six-day go to to the nation, providing the previous Syrian chief a uncommon break from years of worldwide isolation because the begin of a civil struggle in 2011.
Because the couple attended the Asian Video games, President Xi Jinping vowed to help Assad in “opposing external interference” and in Syria’s rebuilding, whereas his spouse Asma was feted in Chinese language media.
However the abrupt finish to the rule of the authoritarian chief so explicitly backed by Xi solely final yr has dealt a blow to China’s diplomatic ambitions within the Center East and uncovered the boundaries of its technique within the area, analysts say.
A coalition of rebels seized Syria’s capital Damascus on Sunday after a lightning offensive that toppled Assad’s regime and ended his household’s 50-year dynasty.
“There’s been a lot of an exaggerated sense of China’s ability to shape political outcomes in the region,” stated Jonathan Fulton, a nonresident senior fellow on the Atlantic Council.
Whereas the collapse of the Assad regime was seen lowering the affect within the Arab world of his most important backers, Iran and Russia, it was additionally a blow for China’s international ambitions, stated Fulton.
“A lot of what (China has) been doing internationally has relied on support with those countries, and their inability to prop up their biggest partner in the Middle East says quite a lot about their ability to do much beyond the region.”
TACKLING HOTSPOTS
After China brokered a deal between long-time rivals Saudi Arabia and Iran in 2023, Chinese language media praised Beijing’s rising profile in a neighbourhood lengthy dominated by Washington.
Wang Yi, China’s high diplomat, stated the nation would play a constructive function in dealing with international “hotspot issues”.
China additionally brokered a truce between Fatah, Hamas and different rival Palestinian factions earlier this yr and has made repeated requires a ceasefire in Gaza.
However regardless of bringing Center Jap leaders to Beijing and rounds of “shuttle diplomacy” by its Center Jap envoy, Zhai Jun, within the months since, Palestinians haven’t fashioned a unity authorities and the battle in Gaza continues.
“Assad’s sudden downfall is not a scenario Beijing wishes to see,” stated Fan Hongda, a Center East scholar at Shanghai Worldwide Research College. “China prefers a more stable and independent Middle East, as chaos or a pro-American orientation in the region does not align with China’s interests.”
The response by China’s international ministry to Assad’s fall has been muted, specializing in the protection of Chinese language nationals and calling for a “political solution” to revive stability in Syria as quickly as doable.
Ministry of international affairs spokesperson, Mao Ning, on Monday appeared to go away a gap for engagement with the long run authorities: “China’s friendly relations with Syria are for all Syrian people,” she stated.
Chinese language consultants and diplomats say Beijing will now bide its time earlier than recognising a brand new authorities in Damascus.
It might use its experience and monetary muscle to help reconstruction, they are saying, however its commitments are prone to be restricted as a result of China has sought to minimise monetary dangers abroad in recent times.
Syria joined China’s flagship Belt and Highway Initiative in 2022, however there have been no important investments by Chinese language companies since, partly attributable to sanctions.
China is “not really able to fundamentally replace the West either as an economic partner, or diplomatic or military force in the region,” stated Invoice Figueroa, assistant professor on the College of Groningen and an professional in China-Center East relations.
“China in 2024 has way less money than China in 2013 – 2014, when the BRI was launched,” Figueroa stated. There’s “an obvious reassessment going on in the direction of safer investments and reducing China’s risks overall,” he added.
