Arsenal vs Actual Madrid: Paul Merson says Gunners should win first leg by two targets to have hope of constructing Champions League semi-finals

In his newest Sky Sports activities column, Paul Merson previews the Champions League quarter-finals, with Arsenal and Aston Villa each in motion.

Mikel Arteta’s Gunners face holders and 15-time Champions League winners Actual Madrid, with the primary leg on the Emirates on Tuesday evening.

Villa, in the meantime, proceed their journey a day later once they go to Paris Saint-Germain, who knocked out Premier League leaders Liverpool within the final spherical. The tie sees Unai Emery and Marco Asensio go to their former membership.

Learn under for the Magic Man’s ideas on the last-eight clashes…

‘Arsenal should win first leg – presumably by at the least two’

Arsenal have gotten to win this primary leg. Profitable by one is the naked minimal, I believe they should win it by at the least two.

We noticed it in final yr’s quarter-final with Bayern Munich, the place it was comfy for Bayern within the second leg, after the 2-2 draw on the Emirates. And I do not see Actual Madrid not scoring two targets on the Bernabeu.

Actual aren’t taking part in nicely in the meanwhile. Arsenal will damage them as a result of Actual are conceding too many targets in the meanwhile.

They misplaced to Valencia on the weekend, they misplaced on the Bernabeu to Actual Sociedad within the second leg of the Copa del Rey semi-final, the sport earlier than that towards Leganes they have been 2-1 down earlier than they got here again and received 3-2.

However whereas they are not taking part in nicely, they all the time flip up within the Champions League. That is the concern for Arsenal.

Actual ought to have gone out towards Atletico Madrid, actually, and so they discover a manner. I keep in mind a few years in the past once they performed towards Chelsea within the 2022 knockout phases, Chelsea have been comfy on the Bernabeu however then Luka Modric performs one of many biggest passes I’ve ever seen with the surface of his boot to avoid wasting them.

If Arsenal can get to a two-goal lead within the first leg, I believe they’ve an opportunity.

It is a massive ask for Arsenal – however I will not be judging Mikel Arteta on this. It’s a must to weigh it up, they haven’t any centre-forward and have misplaced a centre-back in Gabriel.

I choose Arteta subsequent season when he will get the centre-forward. If they do not win the league after he will get the centre-back, I believe he’ll be in massive hassle.

‘Gabriel harm damages Arsenal’s possibilities’

I believed it was a 50:50 probability when Bukayo Saka got here again from harm. However now with Gabriel being injured, I say 25 per cent.

If you happen to had a alternative between Saka and Gabriel for these two legs, you’ll choose Gabriel. As a result of the way in which Arsenal will win that is in the event that they make it a cagey cup tie. If this will get to a gung-ho soccer match, there’s just one winner.

Saliba and Gabriel make one another higher. They’re like Cole Palmer and Nicolas Jackson, they’re much higher taking part in collectively.

It is a massive ask for Jakub Kiwior, if he’s the one to begin. Jurrien Timber has solely performed at centre-back a couple of times, whereas Ben White has been out a very long time.

You are asking somebody who hardly performs – as a result of he is not so good as the opposite two – to come back right into a Champions League quarter-final. Kiwior is alright, however he isn’t Arsenal.

And also you’re asking Kiwior to mark him. Kylian Mbappe, the most effective on the planet or at the least within the prime three alongside Harry Kane and Erling Haaland.

He performs on the shoulder and if he will get by means of, I simply do not see anyone catching him.

And I believe that is the concern for me with Arsenal. They should win this soccer match and so they should chase it at occasions. That is the place it is harmful.

‘Rashford’s tempo can damage Villa’

I’ve acquired feeling about Aston Villa on this one.

It is a onerous one for Villa however they’ve 100 per cent acquired the tempo on the counter-attack and the guile to harm PSG.

They’ve Marcus Rashford’s tempo, Morgan Rogers and John McGinn, they may make possibilities.

Villa should play a counter-attacking recreation and if PSG do push individuals ahead, I simply keep in mind when Rashford did it to PSG the place he was at Manchester United.

My solely fear is I may by no means see Aston Villa doing what Liverpool did to PSG within the first leg. Some other cup tie on the planet would have been over that evening.

However Liverpool have been quite a bit higher within the second leg. I believed they destroyed PSG, who could not get out of their half that evening. That is perhaps the PSG that turns up.

However my fear is the primary leg towards Liverpool. If PSG play anyplace like that it may be onerous for Aston Villa.

The primary leg in Paris additionally is perhaps the sport the place PSG damage Villa a bit extra. PSG will come out and I do not suppose Villa can play such a excessive line in comparison with what they often play.

And in the event that they do, you are by no means going to catch Ousmane Dembele in a month of Sundays.

I believe if Villa lose by one within the first leg in Paris, they have an opportunity. I believe Villa are going to attain targets on this tie.

The one factor is you have acquired no away targets – which I believe was the worst change of rule I’ve ever seen.

That away aim was the secret, that is what Europe was all about. All it does is that you may exit and be destructive within the first leg.

If you happen to get beat 1-0 away, now it is an awesome lead to Europe. After I performed in Europe, you bought beat 1-0 away and that is an atrocious consequence.