An individual flutters a nationwide flag in Caracas on January 3, 2026, after US forces captured Venezuelan chief Nicolas Maduro.
Federico Parra/AFP by way of Getty Photos
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Federico Parra/AFP by way of Getty Photos
WASHINGTON — It’s a case of geopolitical déjà vu. On the identical day thirty-six years aside, U.S. forces seized a deeply unpopular, Latin American dictator and introduced him to the US to face drug fees.
In 1990, troopers despatched by President George H.W. Bush detained Panamanian President Manuel Noriega. On Saturday, it was troops despatched by President Trump who captured Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro.
In each cases, analysts mentioned the US was utilizing pressure to safe strategic property within the Western hemisphere, particularly the Panama Canal and Venezuela’s oil fields.
“We’ll be selling oil,” President Trump mentioned at a information convention Saturday, “probably in much larger doses because they couldn’t produce very much because their infrastructure was so bad.”
Regardless of some similarities, analysts and former diplomats additionally see huge variations between the interventions in Panama and Venezuela and fear about the place the latter could possibly be headed.
Panama is extensively seen as a vivid spot in a historical past of U.S. operations in Latin America which have included CIA-backed coups in Guatemala and Chile. John Feeley, a profession diplomat who served as U.S. ambassador to Panama through the second Obama administration, mentioned the U.S. invasion in 1989 had a optimistic impression on the nation.
“The major result was a democratic system with self-determination, peaceful transfer of governance, and an economy that actually took off and did very, very well,” mentioned Feeley.
One purpose the Panama operation labored, mentioned Feeley, is as a result of a political opposition there was able to take over and American troops — 1000’s of whom had been already stationed within the canal zone — had been shortly out and in of Panama-proper.
In contrast, President Trump declared the US would “run” Venezuela for now upfront of what he known as a “safe, proper and judicious transition.” Trump mentioned Venezuela’s Vice-President, Delcy Rodríguez, had been sworn in as the brand new president.
“She’s essentially willing to do what we think is necessary to make Venezuela great again,” Trump advised reporters.
However talking to Venezuelans in a televised tackle, Rodríguez pushed again towards Trump, saying what the U.S. had executed to her homeland was “a barbarity.”
Trump appeared to dismiss the notion that Venezuelan opposition chief and 2025 Nobel Peace Prize winner María Corina Machado could lead on the nation, saying she did not have sufficient assist or respect inside Venezuela.
Feeley known as Trump’s assertion about Machado the “saddest” of his press convention.
“Maduro is not even remotely popular, and he stole the (2024) election,” mentioned Feeley, “so there seems to be popular will to get rid of him. What there does not seem to be, in my view so far, is any kind of transition plan.”
Folks reveal towards US army motion in Venezuela in Boston Widespread on January 3. 2026 in Boston, Massachusetts.
Joseph Prezioso/AFP by way of Getty Photos
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Joseph Prezioso/AFP by way of Getty Photos
The failure to map out a transition to date additionally worries Douglas Farah, the president of IBI Consultants who spent a decade advising the Pentagon. In 2019, Farah labored with Trump administration officers working battle video games to find out what a post-Maduro Venezuela may seem like. The group checked out a number of eventualities.
“The conclusion of every one was that unless you had some sort of managed transition from the regime to a democratic or some semi-functional democratic system, you would have absolute chaos for a long period of time,” Farah mentioned.
That dangers an influence vacuum that Farah mentioned numerous armed teams — together with guerillas from Colombia — would swiftly transfer to fill, resulting in extra violence.
Throughout his information convention, President Trump declined to rule out deploying American troops to Venezuelan soil.
“We’re not afraid of boots on the ground,” the president advised reporters.
However Farah mentioned occupying Venezuela could be far harder than the intervention in Panama. Venezuela has seven occasions as many individuals and a land mass twelve occasions bigger.
“In Venezuela, you have mountains, you have jungles, you have ocean fronts,” Farah mentioned. “How do we talk about taking over a country when we have no functional presence there?”
