FirstFT: Chinese language residents unconvinced by official progress claims

Good morning and completely satisfied Friday. In at present’s e-newsletter:

• Chinese language residents doubt official progress claims

• Has China already reached peak oil?

• Uproar in India over lengthy work hours

We begin in China, the place a slew of financial information is due at present, together with GDP figures anticipated to indicate the world’s second-largest economic system expanded at a brisk tempo of about 5 per cent in 2024.

However many Chinese language individuals who work in sectors from banking and native authorities to eating places and ride-hailing are unconvinced by official progress claims — and say present situations really feel extra like a recession.

“I don’t know where this growth is supposed to be coming from,” an proprietor of a printing and promoting firm in Beijing informed the FT.

“The authorities can say whatever they want,” he mentioned, suggesting the official information was “blind to reality”. “For me, 2024 has been the worst year in my 20-plus years of running this business.”

Economists, and even senior officers, have lengthy questioned the accuracy of China’s GDP numbers, that are launched by the Nationwide Bureau of Statistics and virtually all the time hit annual authorities targets with uncanny accuracy. Right here’s what they are saying concerning the nation’s progress figures.

• Chinese language property market: Rio Tinto, the Anglo-Australian miner, has pointed to “signs of stabilisation” in Chinese language property after weak demand from the nation’s development sector hit the value of iron ore final yr.

And right here’s what else we’re holding tabs on at present and over the weekend:

• Center East: Israel’s cupboard will meet at present to debate the approval of the Gaza ceasefire, whereas a far-right minister has threatened to stop if the federal government implements the deal.

• Russia-Iran ties: Russian President Vladimir Putin and Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian maintain talks in Moscow, the place they’re anticipated to signal a strategic partnership pact. (Reuters)

• Asean assembly: International ministers collect in Langkawi, Malaysia on Saturday.

• TikTok: A US ban on the favored Chinese language-owned app is because of take impact on Sunday.

How properly did you retain up with the information this week? Take our quiz.

5 extra prime tales

1. Washington has blacklisted Zhipu, China’s most outstanding start-up growing giant language fashions for synthetic intelligence, alleging that it was advancing Chinese language army capabilities by means of the mixing of AI analysis. The beginning-up mentioned it “strongly disagreed” with the US transfer, which it mentioned “lacked factual basis”. Learn the total story.

• Extra on AI: Donald Trump’s decide for secretary of the inside warned the US may lose the “AI arms race” to China except it boosts era of vitality from fossil fuels and stabilises its electrical energy grid.

• TSMCS outcomes: Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Firm has minimize its profitability goal regardless of roaring demand for AI chips.

2. Donald Trump’s nominee to be Treasury secretary mentioned the US ought to enhance sanctions on Russian oil producers to drive Moscow to barter with Ukraine. The feedback yesterday by Scott Bessent pushed up oil costs, as merchants thought-about the prospect of tighter international crude provide. Right here’s what the Treasury nominee mentioned about China throughout his affirmation listening to.

3. Trump may use the approval of cross-border offers to press international governments into aligning with US coverage priorities, dealmakers and traders have warned. One European banker mentioned: “The people in this administration have no compunction about using every lever at their disposal to achieve their aims.”

• Nippon Metal: An anti-Japan tirade by the pinnacle of US steelmaker Cleveland-Cliffs is symptomatic of the abrasive setting brewing within the Trump period, writes Leo Lewis.

4. The UK international secretary and residential secretary have intervened on China’s planning software for an infinite new London embassy, signalling their assist whereas outlining situations for the proposed website. Learn extra about Beijing’s deliberate mega-embassy in London.

5. Activist quick vendor Nathan Anderson, well-known for his campaigns in opposition to Adani Group, Tremendous Micro and Nikola, is shutting down his agency Hindenburg Analysis seven years after he based it. Right here’s why.

The Large Learn

International oil has underpinned China’s financial rise, because the nation constructed the world’s largest automotive trade from scratch, new railways and air journey networks, and hundreds of skyscrapers. However China’s thirst for crude could also be reaching a peak prior to anticipated, a growth that has despatched shockwaves by means of the oil market.

We’re additionally studying . . . 

• Do Indians work an excessive amount of?: An government within the nation has gone viral for saying staff ought to be within the workplace on Sundays.

• US oligarchs: The emergence of a strong tech elite near Donald Trump has jarring echoes with Russia, writes John Thornhill.

• Life after warfare: The pleasure sweeping Gaza on the anticipated halt to the devastating Israel-Hamas battle is combined with grief over months of loss of life and destruction.

Chart of the day

Native smartphone makers Vivo and Huawei leapfrogged Apple to turn into the highest two sellers within the Chinese language market final yr, dealing a blow to the iPhone maker because it struggles to introduce AI options on the mainland.

Take a break from the information . . . 

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