Pep Guardiola says Man Metropolis ‘need not adapt’ after Champions League collapse in opposition to Feyenoord extends winless run to 6 video games

Pep Guardiola says Manchester Metropolis don’t want to alter after his aspect’s winless run prolonged to 6 video games – however is he proper?

Metropolis turned the primary workforce in Champions League historical past to throw away a three-goal lead after the seventy fifth minute – having already suffered 5 defeats on the bounce earlier than their late collapse in opposition to Feyenoord.

Metropolis at the moment are eight factors adrift from Liverpool within the Premier League desk and languish in fifteenth spot within the Champions League desk.

Within the Premier League, Metropolis’s present tally of 23 factors after 12 video games ranks as Pep’s second-worst begin to a marketing campaign after 2020/21 when his aspect had solely 20 factors however had been nonetheless topped champions come Might – a warning to the doubters.

So, is Metropolis’s alarming collapse in kind only a blip? Will Pep’s aspect discover their customary groove as they enter the festive interval? Or, have nice cracks grown into obtrusive fractures?

Toothless assault?

Metropolis are scoring fewer objectives than ever earlier than beneath Guardiola this time period, when factoring within the Premier League, Champions League and Carabao Cup – however the underlying information suggests good occasions might return to the Etihad quickly.

The Cityzens are averaging precisely two objectives per recreation throughout these three competitions this time period – notably down on the two.68 recorded in 2018/19.

Nonetheless, Metropolis are registering round 2.2 anticipated objectives per recreation – which is their common over the previous three title-winning campaigns.

Arguably, it will be unfair to level a finger at Erling Haaland: the Norway worldwide tops the home objective chart with 12 objectives and trails solely Robert Lewandowski on the European stage with 5 objectives.

However, the 24-year-old has registered barely fewer objectives than anticipated this time period in response to anticipated objectives – after outgunning all forecasts in his record-breaking, inaugural marketing campaign.

That marginal differential can be unlikely to have an effect on his aspect an excessive amount of. Certainly, Haaland’s anticipated objective numbers replicate the alternatives he creates at such an early stage of the season. The issue is the dearth of team-mates stepping up when their No 9 misfires.

Haaland has scored greater than half of Metropolis’s objectives within the Premier League this season; that ratio was simply 28 per cent final time period.

Leaky defence?

Metropolis’s uncustomary, leaky defence seems to be the important thing problem afflicting Pep’s struggling champions.

The chart beneath reveals Metropolis have shipped extra objectives, registered extra anticipated objectives in opposition to and confronted extra photographs on course than in every other season over the previous 9 campaigns.

Moreover, the Metropolis machine is creaking with errors, registering six errors resulting in objectives within the Premier League and Champions League this time period – two greater than the whole lot of final season.

The graphic beneath reveals how simply opponents have performed by way of Metropolis in every Premier League season since 2017/18. Guardiola’s aspect appeared faultless till 2021/22, however permeable ‘pink flag’ areas began to emerge in 2022/23 and this season represents Metropolis’s weakest backline beneath Guardiola.

The graphic beneath reveals Metropolis’s rolling common for anticipated objectives scored (in inexperienced) and conceded (in pink). The present surge in anticipated objectives in opposition to is unprecedented beneath Guardiola’s tenure – permitting opponents to create extra high-quality possibilities than they’re producing themselves.

Metropolis previous peak?

Manchester Metropolis have the 14th-oldest common beginning XI within the Premier League this season, which is not notably alarming given rivals Liverpool, Aston Villa and Newcastle all register older ages – however the proportion of older gamers could possibly be a priority.

Greater than half of Metropolis’s 20 most-used gamers this season are aged 29 or over, with returnee Ilkay Gundogan clocking 1,047 minutes throughout the Premier League, Champions League and Carabao Cup at 34 years of age.

Kyle Walker has notched 660 minutes at 34, whereas talisman Kevin De Bruyne’s injury-laden begin to the marketing campaign has restricted the Belgian to simply 462 minutes on the age of 33.

Certainly, Metropolis have handed a league-high proportion of game-time to gamers aged 29 or over. In distinction, Chelsea sit one place and one level shy of Metropolis within the Premier League desk however haven’t handed one minute to a participant aged 29 or over.

Seeing Kyle Walker overwhelmed for tempo in opposition to Timo Werner throughout Metropolis’s 4-0 drubbing in opposition to Tottenham was virtually as stunning as Metropolis’s collapse in kind, however the 34-year-old’s afterburners have been easing off lately – winding down from a sustained 34km/h common prime velocity.

Pep’s aspect have overcome slower begins previously. Nonetheless, the stats spotlight quite a few pink flags and Guardiola’s ‘juggernauts’ will probably be seeking to silence the critics and slash the hole to 5 factors after they journey to Anfield on Sunday.