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At the moment’s agenda: Republicans win Home majority; Germany’s warning towards Russian LNG; HRW’s report on Israel; EU’s progress prospects; and the rise of padel
Good morning. Our prime story comes from Ukraine, the place the value of sovereign bonds has risen 12 per cent up to now month as traders wager that the incoming US administration will push for a fast finish to the conflict with Russia.
What has fuelled the rally? Whereas the bounce coincides with monetary markets’ expectation that the re-election of Donald Trump will result in a ceasefire, it has additionally come simply over two months after Kyiv accomplished a restructuring of greater than $20bn of debt in one of many quickest and largest sovereign debt exercises in trendy historical past. One investor within the nation described it as “the unlikeliest Trump trade ever”.
What’s the outlook? The president-elect has mentioned he’ll finish the conflict in Ukraine “within a day” of returning to the White Home, although he has not provided specifics on how this could be achieved. Bondholders are betting Kyiv shall be ready to simply accept a peace deal that includes completely giving up territory it has misplaced within the conflict.
Ukrainian debt has outperformed rising market indices since mid-October. Nonetheless, some traders have cautioned that the outlook is way from clear, with one portfolio supervisor saying he was sceptical of the market’s perception in Trump’s capability to safe a speedy peace deal.
Learn the total story — and scroll down for extra evaluation on Trump 2.0.
How will Donald Trump’s presidency remodel international commerce and monetary markets? Pose your inquiries to FT journalists in a dwell Q&A at 3pm GMT/10am ET as we speak. You possibly can depart your questions within the remark part below this text, and add the occasion to your calendar right here.
Right here’s what else we’re retaining tabs on as we speak:
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Financial knowledge: The EU releases its third-quarter GDP estimate, and the Worldwide Power Company publishes its month-to-month oil market report.
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US: President Joe Biden heads to Peru for the Asia-Pacific Financial Cooperation summit.
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UK: Chancellor Rachel Reeves delivers her first Mansion Home speech.
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Firms: 3i Group, Burberry, Deutsche Telekom, Eon, Premier Meals, Qinetiq and Walt Disney Firm are amongst these reporting. See our Week Forward e-newsletter for the total record.
5 extra prime tales
1. Republicans have gained a majority within the US Home of Representatives, giving the get together full management of each chambers of Congress and offering Donald Trump huge latitude to push his radical agenda by means of the legislature. Learn the total report.
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Pete Hegseth: The Iraq and Afghanistan conflict veteran who gained notoriety by blaming “wokeness” for US navy failures is now set to be in cost of the world’s largest, strongest and possibly most bureaucratic navy.
Join our White Home Watch e-newsletter for extra updates from Washington because it braces itself for Trump’s second time period.
2. Unique: Germany has warned its state-operated gasoline import terminals to reject any Russian cargoes of liquefied pure gasoline after it was notified of a deliberate cargo. In a letter seen by the FT dated November 6, the German financial ministry mentioned the order was issued to shield the nation’s “overriding public interests”.
3. UK chancellor Rachel Reeves is to legislate the event of eight pension “megafunds” as a part of reforms to Britain’s fragmented native authorities retirement scheme that she claims may unlock £80bn of funding. Reeves instructed the FT she was additionally concentrating on a minimal dimension for multiemployer outlined contribution pension schemes of £25bn to £50bn, which she known as a “massive change”.
4. Israeli authorities have intentionally brought on the mass displacement of Palestinians in Gaza, Human Rights Watch mentioned in a report yesterday. The 154-page report mentioned Israel’s hostilities — throughout which 1.9mn of Gaza’s 2.2mn folks have been displaced, in response to the UN — amounted to “forced displacement” and “a crime against humanity”.
5. Authorities spending cuts within the EU are set to hit funding and progress at a time when the area is already struggling to maintain up with the US, economists have warned, as Brussels plans to rein in price range deficits to a most of three per cent of GDP.
Information in-depth
Greater than twenty years have handed since Sir Alan Bates first challenged the government-owned Publish Workplace over shortfalls in his department’s accounts. 5 years after being vindicated in court docket — and nearly a yr since an ITV dramatisation spurred a political vow to expedite redress — the previous sub-postmaster continues to be awaiting full compensation from the British state.
We’re additionally studying and listening to . . .
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Goldman Sachs: A take care of a distinguished Chinese language banker gave the US group entry to China, however many see it as a cautionary story for western establishments.
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Nvidia: In an AI world led by the US firm, the message to international chipmakers is obvious: in case you can’t beat it, be part of its provide chain, writes June Yoon.
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Rachman Evaluate 🎧: Former Australian prime minister Kevin Rudd talks to Gideon Rachman about how Marxist-Leninist idea nonetheless shapes Xi Jinping’s coverage.
Chart of the day
As international diabetes charges have doubled over the previous 30 years, many middle- and low-income international locations are failing to supply victims with adequate entry to therapy, in response to a global examine. The report revealed in The Lancet discovered that just about 60 per cent of diabetics over 30 years outdated — totalling nearly 450mn folks — didn’t obtain remedy in 2022 regardless of the provision of off-patent prescription drugs.
Take a break from the information
Padel, billed as tennis’s rebellious youthful sibling with its relaxed costume code and emphasis on socialising, has exploded in reputation in recent times, with followers together with the Princess of Wales and Stormzy. Igor Ramírez García-Peralta has a go on the 30mn-strong racket sport that has taken over the world.
