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When UK Prime Minister Sir Keir Starmer meets Ursula von der Leyen on Wednesday for his or her first formal assembly to debate resetting the EU-UK relationship, he could have competitors for the eye of the European Fee president.
On the identical day von der Leyen will even meet Salome Zourabichvili, the president of the previous Soviet republic of Georgia, which is a candidate to affix the EU and as such is arguably extra very important to the bloc’s future than its recalcitrant neighbour throughout the English Channel.
Whereas Georgia is trying to embrace future EU membership, Starmer has explicitly dominated out rejoining the one market and customs union. That place has left diplomats and analysts warning of the authorized limits of any EU-UK reset and future political clashes over fishing rights, vitality buying and selling and youth mobility.
“It will simply be the beginning of the conversation,” her spokesman mentioned on Monday, in an effort to average expectations.
“We are open to strengthening EU-UK relations,” added an EU diplomat. “But the red lines remain. The UK wants to stay outside the single market and the customs union. The ball is in the UK’s court. What do they really want?”
Nick Thomas-Symonds, the UK Cupboard Workplace minister with duty for the negotiations, was in Brussels on Monday laying the groundwork for the leaders’ assembly.
He met Maroš Šefčovič, who will preserve the Brexit transient within the European Fee for a second time period, offering much-needed continuity. The Slovak commissioner negotiated the Windsor framework that ended the bitter post-Brexit feud over buying and selling preparations with Northern Eire.
However analysts say outdated arguments over vitality buying and selling and fishing rights are a possible stumbling block within the coming negotiations due to a “tripwire” clause within the EU-UK Commerce and Cooperation Settlement, which explicitly hyperlinks the 2 points.
Underneath the TCA the transitional preparations for electrical energy buying and selling with the EU — which profit the UK — expire in June 2026 similtaneously a transitional deal on fishing rights, that are politically delicate for coastal EU member states.
“This linkage seems to have been forgotten by some people, but there is a real risk that a row over fishing rights comes in and torpedoes all the good will,” mentioned Sam Lowe, UK and EU commerce coverage adviser at consultancy Flint International.
In an indication of the challenges forward, France advised fellow member states in July that any broader reset with the UK required the identical degree of fishing entry as at current. Two diplomats confirmed that almost all coastal states, from Spain to Sweden, have been behind Paris.
The UK vitality trade has urged the federal government to not enable a row over fish to inhibit the flexibility of each side to commerce inexperienced vitality generated by wind farms within the North Sea.
Adam Berman, director of coverage at trade lobbyist Vitality UK, mentioned the fish-energy linkage was “deeply unhelpful”.
“This is a cliff-edge and we need to get ahead of that. The government must approach these issues sooner rather than later because this is not an issue that can be resolved at the eleventh hour,” he warned.
Variations have additionally already emerged over a “youth mobility deal” to allow younger individuals to journey and work within the EU and UK. Starmer’s authorities has repeatedly rejected the EU’s preliminary concepts for an settlement, saying they’re too near the free motion of individuals ended by Brexit.
Regardless of efforts by EU diplomats to melt the rhetoric round youth mobility forward of Wednesday’s assembly, EU diplomats briefed on inside discussions say solely minor tweaks are anticipated to the unique EU negotiating mandate to make it extra palatable to the UK earlier than it’s agreed earlier than the tip of the yr.
“The core idea behind the scheme will remain but some parameters might be [changed to be] slightly in favour of the UK,” mentioned one. “It won’t be pared back a lot,” predicted a second EU diplomat.
The UK has mentioned that it desires a deal to ease restrictions on touring artists, however the EU aspect has dominated this out, in line with inside paperwork seen by the Monetary Instances, as a result of it could require modifications to customs and street haulage guidelines that transcend the UK’s personal crimson traces.
UK ministers keep “landing zones can be found” on areas of rivalry, constructing on the momentum of a summer time of summits and bilateral visits to EU capitals by Starmer.
Member state ambassadors made clear in a gathering on Monday that any negotiations with UK have to be agreed by them, in line with two individuals briefed on the discussions. Additionally they emphasised the significance of a youth mobility deal, suggesting Von der Leyen would elevate it within the talks.
One early focus shall be on a brand new safety pact and improved exchanges between police and safety companies that would additionally pave the best way to deeper ties in areas comparable to defence.
Nonetheless, there’s additionally a debate in Brussels about how one can combine British firms within the EU’s rearmament push as a part of any safety pact, with divisions between massive member states on whether or not to widen entry for the UK.
France insists that the EU ought to deal with investing in its personal firms. However Andrius Kubilius, the brand new defence commissioner, advised the FT that Britain “is part of Europe”.
Extra reporting by Daria Mosolova in Brussels
