Tom Holland in ‘Spider-Man: No Way Home’
Sony
Sony is now reporting that Marvel’s Spider-Man: No Way Home, starring Tom Holland, Zendaya and Benedict Cumberbatch, earned $260 million domestic and $600.8 million worldwide over its opening weekend. That’s still the third-biggest worldwide launch behind the last two Avengers films, but its domestic debut is now over Avengers: Infinity War’s $257 million launch and sits behind only Avengers: Endgame ($357 million domestic) and Detective Chinatown 3 ($398 million in China). With the very important caveat that Covid variables could change the game for any number of marketplaces (domestic and overseas) at any moment, and that we don’t know if/when/how the film will play in China, well, it’s already a hit. The film tripled its $200 million budget in five days and should be past F9 ($721 million) and No Time to Die ($775 million) in a few days.
Star Wars: The Force Awakens had $765 million by Wednesday and passed $1 billion by the end of its second global weekend. With $340 million overseas thus far, without China mind you, I’m now pretty confident that it’ll pass the $610 million overseas cume of No Time to Die and notch that specific milestone for pandemic-era box office. Barring a Covid-specific collapse, the Jon Watts-directed sequel is going to be the first $1 billion grosser since Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker and could end Sunday past both Star Wars IX ($1.073 billion) and Joker ($1.073 billion) to become the biggest earner since Frozen II ($1.45 billion). If it continues to play like Star Wars Episode VII, it could pass Spider-Man: No Way Home ($1.131 billion with $390 million domestic and $199 million in China) by Sunday night.
The Force Awakens
Walt Disney
It’s already the biggest domestic earner since Star Wars Episode IX ($515 million). Conventional December legs put it on course for a jaw-dropping final figure. Force Awakens earned a huge 3.79x multiplier, which are still the second-longest legs (behind Wonder Woman which earned $412.5 million from a $103.5 million debut) for an “opened on a Friday” $100 million-plus opener. It also, like Sony’s Spider-Man: No Way Home, opened with most of its biggest plot twists and character turns unspoiled. Like the J.J. Abrams juggernaut, the Jon Watts-directed sequel will face a competition-lite first month. Sing 2 and The Matrix Resurrections could butt in, but afterward it’s smooth sailing until Morbius on January 28. If Force Awakens can weather The Revenant ($184 million domestic/$533 million worldwide), then No Way Home can handle The Matrix 4 and/or Scream 5.
But even “normal for December” legs offer best-case-scenario optimism. Legs like The Last Jedi ($620 million from a $220 million debut, but in a year where the holiday break didn’t start until its second Monday) or The Rise of Skywalker ($515 million/$177 million) would still give No Way Home a $732 million-$756 million domestic cume. Legs like I am Legend ($256 million/$77 million), The Hobbit: The Desolation of Smaug ($258 million/$73 million), The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey ($303 million/$85 million) or Rogue One: A Star Wars Story ($529 million/$155 million) would give it a domestic cume between $864 million (just below Avengers: Endgame’s $867 million cume) and $935 million (just below The Force Awakens’ record domestic cume). However unlikely (Covid fears could cut down on repeat viewings), legs like The Force Awakens gets No Way Home to $986 million.
WUHAN, CHINA – OCTOBER 2: (CHINA OUT) Cinema employees sell Haagen-Dazs ice cream as the movie poster of “The Battle At Lake Changjin” is seen in a cinema on October 2, 2021 in Wuhan, Hubei province, China. In three days after its release, the film grossed more than 1 billion yuan. China is celebrating their 72nd National Day and a week-long holiday known as the “Golden Week”. (Photo by Getty Images)
Getty Images
In its favor are strong reviews, an A+ Cinemascore grade, its value as a four-quadrant/consensus choice theatrical event that plays for kids who just like Marvel or Spider-Man and older audiences with nostalgic feelings for the previous Spider-Man franchises. It has clear sailing after the expected Christmas pile-up (presuming Matrix 4 and/or Sing 2 put up a fight). If I may be bunt, if Covid does become a greater concern I imagine many will likely treat Spider-Man as their single theatrical outing until the new wave dies down. The worst “big” December release, in terms of legs, remains Star Trek: Nemesis which earned $43 million from an $18 million debut in mid-December 2002. Even that multiplier gets Spider-Man: No Way Home to $621 million. Here’s one milestone it should absolutely be gunning for, even if it’s a longshot…
If it tops $904 million in North America, that’s a plausible 3.481x weekend-to-final multiplier, it’ll pass China’s The Battle At Lake Changjin as the year’s biggest single-market grosser and the second-biggest single-market total ever. Sure, it would love a crack at The Force Awakens’ $937 million unadjusted domestic total (from a $247 million debut on this weekend in 2015), but one thing at a time. The single-market milestone for this year is the one milestone I figured Spider-Man: No Way Home wouldn’t surpass, and it still might not (no harm in a mere $750-$850 million finish). But that it’s even in the conversation is a testament to the sheer size of this opening, and the sheer potential (due to the positive factors and the Christmas legs) of its post-debut earnings. As Rachel Maddow says, watch this space.
