Our soccer betting skilled Jones Is aware of supplies his perception throughout the Premier League and explains why Arsenal’s successful streak will probably be below menace at Sunderland.
Tottenham vs Manchester United, Saturday 12.30pm
The Tottenham Hotspur Stadium ought to be a fortress – a new-build trendy footballing area filled with intimidation. However proper now it feels extra like a luxurious spa for visiting groups.
Opponents do not flip up dreading it. They flip up having fun with it. It is soccer’s model of checking right into a five-star resort. You get pampered, you play your recreation and as a rule, you permit with one thing to indicate for it.
That is seen in Spurs’ residence report of late. Within the final 12 months, Spurs have the fewest factors (13), fewest wins (3) and most defeats (12) at residence than every other ever-present facet and have stored simply three clear sheets within the final 39 Premier League video games at residence.
In the meantime, Manchester United are field workplace once more. Not within the relentless, ruthless, title-challenging approach of Sir Alex Ferguson’s juggernaut however within the sense that you just cannot take your eyes off them.
United aren’t able to problem for honours but. They’re a workforce constructed for moments – not for consistency, that means they cannot be trusted nonetheless as a betting proposition within the win market the place they’re favourites right here at 29/20 with Sky Wager. The better worth is discovered of their whole objectives line the place the ten/11 for them to attain over 1.5 objectives charges as good wager – one thing which has landed in seven of their final 9 video games.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Jack Grealish and card-based performs are very a lot a worthwhile theme of this season. Grealish stays probably the most fouled participant within the Premier League having been fouled 29 occasions. He is drawing playing cards from these fouls too with Trai Hume, Daniel Munoz, Matty Money and Mads Wieffer all being booked for challenges on Grealish.
Opponents are doubling up and usually spending 90 minutes making an attempt to check his persistence as a lot as his ability. When he would not get the choices, the petulance tends to bubble up, which additionally makes Grealish a underrated participant within the to be carded market himself.
Grealish would not lose his head typically, however when he does, it is often in video games precisely like this in opposition to a bodily facet who’re comfortable to foul, frustrate and use recreation administration strategies. It is 12/1 with Sky Wager for each Grealish’s direct opponent Kenny Tete and Grealish to be carded.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Control Crysencio Summerville if you happen to’re seeking to seize some worth within the coming weeks.
As a result of below Nuno Espirito Santo’s new counter-attacking West Ham, the Dutchman appears to be like constructed to be the headline act within the attacking prop markets. Nuno’s blueprint took form of their win over Newcastle: sit deep, take in and strike. It is the identical mannequin that introduced him success at Wolves and Nottingham Forest the place defensive construction, lightning transitions and large gamers given license to blow up into house are to the fore.
And that is the place Summerville matches completely. He is been effervescent properly below the radar together with his performances for West Ham however might be about to take centre stage on this system primarily based on his displaying in opposition to Newcastle. He had three pictures, one on course and a primary objective of the season is not distant. It could come right here with 3/1 with Sky Wager standing out.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Sunderland vs Arsenal, Saturday 5.30pm, stay on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Keep in mind, soccer is outlined by nice margins and is a really low-scoring sport.
Irrespective of how good of a workforce you’re, a little bit of variance and misfortune goes to hit you sooner or later. Arsenal are a unbelievable workforce, holding eight clear sheets in a row and successful the final 10 – it is unimaginable stuff however this is not an unbeatable outfit. They’ve flaws.
The outcomes in soccer are too risky to permit perfection to persist.
And in relation to betting on soccer, the shrewdest of gamblers on the market perceive this and as an alternative of chasing the streak, they’re searching for alternatives for when it snaps.
And on the costs right here I wish to be with Sunderland to finish the Arsenal streak on the costs on provide.
Sunderland are a fiercely organised facet who’re defensively safe. Robin Roefs has commanded his field very effectively in objective to the extent that Sunderland have the second-best report within the Premier League in relation to objectives conceded from set-pieces. Arsenal could be very troublesome to cease from such situations however Sunderland look properly positioned to take care of the set-piece machine.
That is the time to be courageous, sail in opposition to the market and get forward of the ‘dangerous day on the workplace for Arsenal’ curve the place all their streaks finish.
My fundamental play is to again each groups to attain at 6/5 with Sky Wager with eyes additionally on Sunderland to win at 7/1 and Sunderland to win to nil at 12/1.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Each groups to attain (6/5 with Sky Wager)
Chelsea vs Wolves, Saturday 8pm, stay on Sky Sports activities
A nervous referee is a card-happy referee. Now we have an inexperienced one in cost right here with Andrew Kitchen overseeing simply his fourth Premier League recreation. That is the most important and highest profile one he is been assigned to.
With these inexperienced referees the stress of refereeing by the regulation, not the spirit of the sport, typically takes over when the Premier League microscope zooms in. A tactical foul that within the Championship may need been managed with a phrase all of the sudden turns into a nailed-on reserving within the Premier League.
And Chelsea are simply loopy for playing cards for the reason that begin of final season. Their video games are averaging 4.9 yellows per recreation in that interval – that is the very best of any workforce. Moreover, this fixture does have a number of spice hooked up to it with the final six averaging 6.9 whole playing cards per recreation, together with the newest Carabao Cup tie which noticed 9 yellows and a pink proven.
I am very eager on backing the playing cards line with 11/10 with Sky Wager on provide for over 4.5 playing cards proven.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Over 4.5 playing cards (11/10 with Sky Wager)
Aston Villa vs Bournemouth, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Bournemouth will probably be rested, organised and totally revved below Andoni Iraola – and can absolutely fancy their probabilities of turning over an Aston Villa facet operating on European fumes. The Premier League calendar hasn’t been sort to Aston Villa – going through Iraola’s workforce after a midweek recreation is a brutal examination.
Thursday nights in Europe are nonetheless glamorous however they take a toll. For all of Unai Emery’s tactical acumen, his squad is not but deep sufficient to juggle the workload with out one thing giving.
Bournemouth have had a full week to organize, to relaxation legs and to nice tune a high-tempo, front-foot plan below Iraola. They’re one of many league’s fittest sides, urgent with objective and breaking with tempo. All this hasn’t been factored into the match costs sufficient so the Cherries look a pleasant worth on the draw no guess at 11/8 with Sky Wager.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-2
Brentford vs Newcastle, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
Newcastle had been “unrecognisable” in response to their boss Eddie Howe of their 3-1 defeat to West Ham. The dearth of depth and attacking menace felt very un-Newcastle-like.
Only a one-off then? No, it is not.
Having regarded just a little deeper, these underwhelming shows and outcomes away from St James’ Park are a problem below Howe.
At residence Newcastle really feel empowered – they press, they go at you and so they look expansive and assured. On the highway it is completely different. They’re extra cautious and Howe has struggled to discover a components that permits them to flourish away from the magic of St James’ Park.
The defeat on the London Stadium means Newcastle at the moment are eight league video games with out a win on the highway stretching throughout the summer season. Jacob Murphy’s strike on Sunday was additionally simply their fourth objective scored throughout these eight matches and their anticipated objectives knowledge throughout that winless run is trending at a paltry 1.2 per 90. Horrendous numbers.
Subsequently, it’s extremely stunning to see them chalked up as favourites to win at Brentford with the house facet accessible at Evens on the draw no guess.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-1
Crystal Palace vs Brighton, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports activities
Writing about Danny Welbeck being within the type of his life in 2025 was not on my radar – however right here we’re.
The Brighton entrance man is purring with confidence, wanting sharper, hungrier and crucially for punters, extra productive than ever. He is clocked up six objective involvements in his final six appearances, and if you happen to zoom in on his current minutes in opposition to Palace, it is much more spectacular: three objective involvements in his final 150 minutes.
These aren’t streaky stats, they’re indicators of a participant who’s thriving in Fabian Hurzeler’s fluid attacking construction. So, at 7/4 with Sky Wager for a objective or an help? That is worth.
SCORE PREDICTION: 2-2
Nottingham Forest vs Leeds, Sunday 2pm, stay on Sky Sports activities
Sean Dyche is actually attending to work. His fingerprints are already throughout Forest’s current performances. There’s been the next ratio of lengthy passes, extra pressures within the ultimate third and already the standard of possibilities Forest are going through is way decrease than when below the gaze of Ange Postecoglou.
Dyche is doing the smart factor and making Forest a lot more durable to attain in opposition to.
It is that defensive enchancment proven below Dyche and Leeds’ flakiness in assault that makes a Forest clear sheet straightforward to fancy right here. They’re truly 18 Premier League video games with out one – the membership’s worst run since 1960. And Dyche will probably be shedding sleep over one thing like that.
Should you look again at Dyche’s final 18 video games as a supervisor, 15 of these landed for punters backing ‘no’ within the each groups to attain market.
It is 10/11 with Sky Wager to go in once more.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-0 | JONES KNOWS’ BEST BET: Each groups to attain ‘no’ (10/11 with Sky Wager)
Manchester Metropolis vs Liverpool, Sunday 4.30pm, stay on Sky Sports activities – PLAY SUPER 6 HERE!
For punters eyeing up the primary goalscorer market this weekend with Erling Haaland of their sights, it is value asking whether or not the Norwegian’s worth really stacks up at 3/1 with Sky Wager. Spoiler alert: it would not.
The bookies dangle Haaland up at skinny odds and the remainder of Metropolis’s attacking expertise will get priced as in the event that they’re supporting actors. That may make sense when Metropolis are bullying lesser sides however Liverpool will not be that. And in opposition to Virgil van Dijk, Haaland’s aura tends to dim.
The goalscoring machine has malfunctioned when confronted with Van Dijk, scoring simply two objectives in seven appearances for membership and nation.
Phil Foden is 7/1 with Sky Wager to attain first
When Haaland cannot dominate bodily, Metropolis typically discover pleasure elsewhere and that is the place the worth creeps in.
Step ahead Phil Foden, who’s again to his greatest and brimming with confidence.
From October onwards within the 23/24 season, Foden was one of many hottest gamers on the planet, scoring 25 objectives in all competitions throughout that interval – a ratio of 0.7 objectives per 90. His two objectives in midweek pointed in the direction of a return of these numbers which makes his 7/1 with Sky Wager quotes for the primary objective look reasonably beneficiant in a recreation that appears so troublesome to name from an outright perspective.
SCORE PREDICTION: 1-1
Jones Is aware of’ greatest guess:
- 1pt treble on each groups to attain in Sunderland vs Arsenal, over 4.5 playing cards in Chelsea vs Wolves & each groups to attain ‘no’ in Nottingham Forest vs Leeds (8/1 with Sky Wager)
