Hamas fighters patrol a road earlier than they hand over three Israeli hostages to a Purple Cross workforce in Deir el-Balah, central Gaza, on Feb. 8.
Eyad Baba/AFP by way of Getty Photographs
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Eyad Baba/AFP by way of Getty Photographs
TEL AVIV, Israel — Almost two years after launching the shock assault that sparked the conflict with Israel, Hamas finds itself up towards a wall.
Its combating drive has been pummeled by Israel, its charismatic management has been all however assassinated and its ceasefire negotiators face unprecedented stress from Arab governments to surrender its weapons and its rule.
“Hamas is facing its worst crisis yet,” mentioned Esmat Mansour, a West Financial institution-based Palestinian political commentator and former militant, who’s in contact with figures near Hamas. “Hamas faces pressures from all directions: from Israel, from the street, from the West and from Arab countries.”
Yahya Sinwar (heart), Hamas’ Gaza Strip chief on the time, shakes fingers with a masked fighter of the group’s Qassam Brigades throughout an anniversary rally, in Gaza Metropolis, on Dec. 14, 2022. Israel believes Sinwar was a mastermind of the lethal Oct. 7, 2023, assault within the nation. The Israeli army mentioned it killed him in an operation in southern Gaza in October 2024.
Mohammed Abed/AFP by way of Getty Photographs
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Mohammed Abed/AFP by way of Getty Photographs
Essentially the most speedy stress comes from Israel’s newest risk: to besiege Gaza Metropolis, after displacing a whole bunch of hundreds of Palestinians from the town, and sending troopers inside to battle in what Israel considers to be considered one of Hamas’ final main strongholds. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu this week ordered army planners to hurry up preparations for the Gaza Metropolis offensive, and army officers referred to as on hospitals to plan to evacuate.
Civilians in Gaza face the brunt of Israel’s marketing campaign, struggling displacement, airstrikes and extreme meals shortages — with the world’s specialists in famine asserting famine situations have already taken maintain in Gaza.
For the primary time, the 22 international locations of the Arab League referred to as in a press release final month for Hamas to surrender management of Gaza and hand over its weapons.
These pressures got here to a head this week, when Hamas accepted an Egyptian and Qatari proposal for a ceasefire in Gaza — giving up its preliminary reservations and agreeing to phrases the U.S. had initially proposed that will hold Israeli troops with a major maintain on territory in Gaza. Israel is contemplating its response.
Israel is attempting to finish Hamas’ existence as a army and governing drive in Gaza, and Hamas is aware of Israel is stronger militarily. Mansour says Hamas’ technique is to take care of its one bargaining chip, the Israeli hostages it nonetheless holds, and hope the circumstances change in Israel to Hamas’ benefit.
“Time plays to Hamas’ benefit, not to Netanyahu’s benefit,” Mansour says. “The [Israeli] military is exhausted, Israeli protests are increasing, maybe the government will fall, maybe there will be international pressure especially because of the images of hunger, Europe will pressure the U.S. Hamas says: ‘There is nothing worse than surrender. Why should I surrender? I am remaining steadfast and maybe the situation will change to my advantage and there will be an opportunity to negotiate from a better position.'”
Mansour says Hamas’ “main goal is to exist and only to exist.”
Hamas believes it has standard help on the Arab road
Hamas is at present targeted on enhancing its relations with Arab governments.
“The main disagreement between Hamas and the Arab countries is the armed struggle that Hamas employs in its clashes with the Israeli occupation,” says Ibrahim Al-Madhoun, a Palestinian analyst from Gaza based mostly in Istanbul and near Hamas. “ But all the Arab states understand that Palestine is a vital cause and Hamas is the most important player in the cause … the Arab nations love Hamas.”
Samir Ghattas, an Egyptian safety analyst who research Hamas and Gaza, says Hamas errors Arab help for the plight of Gaza with help for Hamas.
Palestinian Hamas fighters escort Israeli hostage Or Levy on a stage earlier than handing him over to a Purple Cross workforce in Deir el-Balah, central Gaza, on Feb. 8, as a part of a hostage-prisoner alternate and ceasefire take care of Israel.
Eyad Baba/AFP by way of Getty Photographs
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Eyad Baba/AFP by way of Getty Photographs
“Hamas has only one card: the hostages. Without the hostages, Hamas has no cards at all,” Ghattas mentioned. “There is no future for Hamas in Gaza as the people there blame Hamas for what’s happened, after they blame Israel and Netanyhu for the killing and destruction.”
Hamas is rising its guerrilla warfare
Israel has destroyed most of Hamas’ army capabilities, but Hamas stays in Gaza as localized guerrilla models.
In a uncommon transfer, a bunch of Hamas militants on Wednesday stormed an Israeli army place in southern Gaza, main to shut vary combating. Many of the Hamas militants have been killed, based on the Israeli army.
Israel thinks Hamas could have tried to abduct a soldier. The ambush demonstrates how Hamas remains to be prepared to battle in any respect prices.
In Gaza Metropolis, 35-year-old Mohammed Ahmad says Hamas can not afford to surrender its weapons now.
“No one will accept during a battle and a continuous fight with the occupation to surrender their weapons,” Ahmad says. “The Israelis will not leave Gaza if Hamas surrenders its weapons.”
Amjad Saleh, 22, says civilians, not Hamas, are paying the value of the conflict.
“Hamas is not here at all. Their leaders are either abroad, or in the tunnels underground in Gaza … they conduct their operations and we get punished for it,” he says. “The plan for displacement is coming,” he says.
Mass displacement is Palestinians’ largest concern now
Israel’s army is looking up tens of hundreds extra troopers, and vowing within the coming weeks to take management of Gaza Metropolis and drive out a whole bunch of hundreds of Palestinians to southern Gaza close to the Egyptian border. Israel finally seeks to ship as many Palestinians as doable to different international locations.
That could possibly be one main driving issue for Egypt to assist suggest a brand new ceasefire and for Hamas to help it, to carry off the larger concern of a mass displacement of Palestinians from Gaza into Egypt or past.
Abu Bakr Bashir reported from London. Nuha Musleh contributed to this story from Ramallah, West Financial institution.
