Sir Keir Starmer and Ursula von der Leyen will on Thursday finalise plans for a brand new UK/EU defence pact and an settlement on the delicate space of fishing rights, paving the best way for negotiations on a broader financial deal.
The British prime minister and European Fee president are anticipated to announce a defence and safety pact and a rollover of present fishing preparations at a summit on Might 19.
A number of officers briefed on the discussions mentioned the defence deal would construct belief and open the door for delicate talks on points together with a brand new youth mobility scheme, power co-operation and a removing of obstacles to commerce in meals and agricultural merchandise.
British officers mentioned Starmer anticipated to carry talks lasting an hour with Von der Leyen in London on Thursday on the margins of a world power safety summit. “They have a strong personal relationship,” mentioned one.
Whereas a UK/EU defence pact is seen as a giant prize in its personal proper by either side given Russian aggression in Ukraine, the deal is anticipated to be accompanied on Might 19 by a doc setting out co-operation in different areas.
“The plan is to publish a document setting out a common way forward,” mentioned one EU diplomat briefed on summit preparations. A British official added: “May 19 will be the starting point.”
The awkward concern of fishing is anticipated to be solved by agreeing a continuation of present fishing quotas in UK waters for a minimum of two years, giving EU boats the understanding demanded by France and different coastal states, in keeping with three individuals aware of the matter.
In return, UK defence corporations would qualify for entry to a doable €150bn in EU-backed loans to fund weapons purchases beneath the bloc’s Safety Motion For Europe (SAFE) mission.
Brussels has legally nonbinding safety offers with six different nations, together with Norway, Albania, South Korea and Japan, however UK and EU negotiators have been discussing a probably deeper bilateral partnership.
The SAFE scheme will permit EU members to concern bonds backed by the EU funds, decreasing the price, exterior Brussels-mandated fiscal limits. The scheme is designed to fund purchases of weapons from producers in EU member states and nations who’ve a safety pact with the EU.
“European defence policy is not conceivable without the UK,” mentioned a senior EU diplomat. “That’s why the UK needs to be closely involved on SAFE — just like Norway.”
A number of member states have put stress on France to conform to the deal, however Paris insisted on preserving entry to UK fish shares on the identical degree after June 2026, when a deal achieved on the time of Brexit expires. Some member states are nonetheless pushing for a minimum of a five-year deal on fish.
The 2 sides are anticipated to deepen co-operation on power, corresponding to enhancing electrical energy buying and selling between the UK and EU, probably for a long term to replicate the time it takes to construct infrastructure corresponding to electrical energy interconnectors.
The summit declaration may even set out a highway map for future talks on relinking the 2 sides’ carbon emissions buying and selling programs. “There will be a common understanding that could include a veterinary deal, ETS and youth mobility,” an EU diplomat mentioned.
“It’s still a moving target, but the mood music is certainly positive. There is credible hope there could be a landing zone by May 19.” One Downing Avenue official mentioned: “There’s a real desire on both sides.” One other senior UK official put the possibility of a deal at “75/25”.
An EU diplomat mentioned that whereas the combat over fishing rights had been delinked from plans for a safety pact, there remained “intense negotiations” over different parts of the deal.
That will comprise safety, mobility and migration, relinking power markets and a ‘veterinary agreement’ to take away border checks on animal and plant merchandise being traded throughout the Channel.
Important gaps stay to be resolved on the query of a youth mobility and the rights of artists to tour the EU, a key UK demand.
However EU officers mentioned that London had accepted the precept of “dynamic alignment”, the place the UK would routinely settle for EU guidelines and requirements and the European Courtroom of Justice as the ultimate arbiter on questions of EU legislation.
The delicate query of how disputes can be resolved, and the way the ECJ’s jurisdiction would function in follow, remains to be to be negotiated.
“The more immediate question is on how the UK will operationalise the application of dynamic alignment and the mechanisms that will allow it to transpose EU rules into UK law,” one added.
