5 issues to look at as Syria confronts a brand new future

The Islamist rebels whose swift seizure of Syria over the weekend toppled long-time dictator Bashar al-Assad haven’t solely ushered in an unsettled new period for the troubled nation, however they promise to reshuffle the area’s fraught geopolitics.

The ousting of Assad, who dominated Syria for 1 / 4 century after assuming energy from his father, leaves a harmful political vacuum. Ahmed al-Shara – previously identified by his nom de guerre, Abu Mohmmad al-Jolani – on the head of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, is at the least nominally in cost. He and his group are on the helm of a fractious insurgent alliance that fought Assad over greater than 13 years of civil battle. Previously often known as the al-Nusra Entrance, HTS was as soon as affiliated with al-Qaida. Though Shara claims to have damaged ties with al-Qaida, HTS stays on a U.S. State Division checklist of terrorist organizations.

It is a advanced and fluid scenario on the bottom, and most observers agree it is all however inconceivable to foretell how issues will play out within the coming days, weeks and months. However as Syria marks the beginning of a brand new chapter, listed below are 5 dynamics that consultants say shall be necessary to concentrate to.

How easy will the political transition be?

Whereas Assad and different regime figures fled Syria within the hours earlier than the rebels seized energy in Damascus, Prime Minister Mohammad Ghazi Jalali stood his put up. “We are working so that the transitional period is quick and smooth,” Jalali instructed Sky Information Arabia TV on Monday, based on The Related Press.

Having Assad’s prime minister keep on was “clearly an arrangement” with the rebels, says Joshua Landis, a Syria specialist on the College of Oklahoma. “They’ve worked it out, what seems to be a temporary, peaceful handover of power.”

In a assembly on Monday with Jalali, the HST chief acknowledged that regardless of the insurgent victory, “we can’t dispense with the previous state.”

Sanam Vakil, director of the Center East and North Africa Programme on the London-based assume tank Chatham Home, says it’s too early to sign any final result. “I think we have to give everybody a bit of time to figure it out,” she says.

Vakil says Syria might be taught a lesson from the aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iraq that toppled Sadaam Hussein in 2003. Within the wake of Hussein’s fall, the U.S. dissolved the ruling Baath Get together, resulting in a breakdown in fundamental companies that helped set the stage for the mass chaos that finally swept the nation. Vakil says that “including technocrats and perhaps holdovers from the Assad government is a way of building consensus and broader support.”

Years of unhealthy blood and fears of an Islamist regime will make reconciliation a problem

The range of ethnic and spiritual stakeholders in Syria paints a sophisticated image: Assad’s powerbase was drawn from Shia Muslims, and the small however influential Alawite non secular minority that he belongs to, mixed with different teams make up about 13% of the inhabitants. Sunni Muslims, against this, account for roughly three-quarters of Syria.

The Alawite minority, concentrated primarily on the Mediterranean coast, has now all of a sudden discovered itself out of energy and probably extra weak. Landis says there’s “considerable tension” between the 2 essential Muslim teams in Syria. However to date, there are not any indicators of reprisals by the brand new leaders, he says. Everyone seems to be making an attempt to determine “whether there’s going to be revenge killings or real disturbances in the Alawite territories,” Landis says.

Nonetheless, there are indicators of some fraying. Within the northeast of the nation, Kurdish forces have been pushed out of Manbij by Arab-led opposition forces.

Vakil says there’s concern that Syria might descend right into a strict fundamentalist Islamic state just like Taliban-led Afghanistan, though the nation’s new leaders have made pronouncements that search to dispel that concern.

The rebels, as an illustration, issued a assertion on social media Monday instructing their fighters that it’s “strictly forbidden to interfere with women’s dress or impose any request related to their clothing or appearance, including requests for modesty.”

However U.N. Particular Envoy for Syria Geir Pedersen, talking in Qatar, on Sunday, sounded a phrase of warning, saying he was listening to “contradictory messages” coming from the brand new management. “This is now my key message to all – avoid bloodshed, make sure that it is inclusive, that all communities in Syria are included, and that the nervousness that some are facing, are fearing, that we can address this, and move forward to peace and stability,” he mentioned.

There are hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees ready to return dwelling

Refugees who fled through the civil battle are already making an attempt to return. Many had been lining up at border crossings in Turkey on Monday, based on the AP.

“Syria is at a crossroads – between peace and war, stability and lawlessness, reconstruction or further ruin,” the UN Excessive Commissioner for Refugees Filippo Grandi mentioned in a press release on Monday The company mentioned that “recent developments bring hope that the suffering of the Syrian people may finally end, and that the world’s largest forced displacement crisis can move towards just solutions.”

However finally, consultants say, the tempo or returns shall be formed by how a lot political stability Syria’s subsequent leaders can ship.

“Many of them are going to want to go home,” says Landis, including that he thinks that given the historical past of their predicament, he thinks that “most will take a wait and see” place.

Daniel Mouton, a Center East knowledgeable on the Atlantic Council, writes that “Millions of Syrian refugees will want to return home and are more likely to do so in an environment of good governance and active reconstruction.”

The dangers of an influence vacuum are very actual

Governments throughout the area are all too aware of the hazards that may come after an autocrat’s fall. Civil battle dominated Libya for years after the loss of life of Muammar Gaddafi in 2011, simply because it did in Iraq after Hussein was toppled. Right now, they’re watching occasions in Syria with a cautious eye.

On the floor, the ouster of Assad may seem like a web constructive for Israel. Each Iran and Hezbollah, the Tehran-backed militia that Israel has sought to destroy in neighboring Lebanon, had been among the many former Syrian dictator’s key backers.

Hours after rebels took the Syrian capital, nevertheless, Israel moved right into a demilitarized buffer zone with Syria that had been maintained with out violation for the reason that 1973 Yom Kippur Warfare. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights — an space seized from Syria through the 1967 Six-Day Warfare and later annexed by Israel — proclaiming that the transfer into the buffer zone was a “temporary defensive position.”

Israel has additionally launched tons of of airstrikes towards Syria in latest days, saying it has taken out 70% of the Syrian military’s capabilities — a transfer criticized Tuesday by Pedersen, the U.N. particular envoy. “We are continuing to see Israeli movements and bombardments into Syrian territory. This needs to stop,” he mentioned.

Vakil says the collapse of the Assad regime locations Israel in a tough place. “As a democracy, I think it is obliged to try and support [the transition] process [in Syria] and try and actually stay out of this process,” she says.

For Jordan, Vakil says, Assad’s ouster might be a constructive, “if there is eventually parliamentary democracy and more inclusive parliamentary democracy” in Syria. “And if, on the other hand, you do see a sort of Taliban-like scenario emerge, that’s not going to be particularly positive for a country like Jordan that has its own Muslim Brotherhood.”

The U.S., Russia and Iran even have pursuits in Syria

For the reason that begin of anti-Assad uprisings in 2011, the U.S. authorities has imposed a sequence of sanctions aimed toward stopping violence towards civilians.

Even so, President Biden, in a televised tackle on Sunday, expressed concern in regards to the post-Assad authorities in Syria: “Make no mistake, some of the rebel groups who took down Assad have their own grim record of terrorism and human rights abuses,” Biden mentioned. “We’ve taken note of the statements by the leaders of these rebel groups in recent days and they’re saying the right things now. But as they take on more responsibility, we will assess not just their words, but their actions.”

Vakil says the administration needs “to curb the potential comeback of ISIS and other terrorist groups.”

U.S. warplanes struck “dozens” of “ISIS leaders, operatives and camps” on Sunday, based on U.S. Central Command. On Monday, Deputy Pentagon Press Secretary Sabrina Singh mentioned: “Centcom, together with allies and partners in the region, will continue to carry out operations to degrade ISIS capabilities, even during this dynamic period in Syria.”

It is unclear, nevertheless, how lengthy these efforts will final. President-elect Donald Trump as not too long ago as this previous weekend mentioned the U.S. ought to keep out of the preventing in Syria, and through his first time period flirted with eradicating all U.S. forces from the nation.

About 900 U.S. troops are stationed in Syria, largely in oil-rich areas managed by Kurdish militia forces. Syria’s economic system is extremely depending on oil revenues and the presence of U.S. troops has denied the Assad regime entry to these fields.

“Over the next six months, the United States is going to be in re-evaluation mode,” Landis says. “If it wants good relations with this new state, it can’t punish it forever by withholding the oil.”

Russia — a staunch ally of Assad and the vacation spot for his speedy exile after fleeing Syria over the weekend — seems to have little recourse however to simply accept the brand new actuality within the nation.

Moscow, particularly, is anxious about shedding key navy installations that its sees as a counterweight to NATO within the area — a naval base at Tartus on the Mediterranean coast and the Hmeimim air base in Syria’s Latakia province. Reuters stories that Syria’s new leaders have agreed to ensure the security of Russian navy bases.

For Iran, shedding Assad as an ally has additional eroded its affect — particularly after Israel’s battle towards its regional proxies Hamas and Hezbollah. Hezbollah helped preserve Assad in energy, and the militant group has for years used Syria as a conduit to switch weapons into Lebanon.

Talking in Doha, Qatar, on Saturday, as Syrian rebels had been closing in on Damascus, U.S. Envoy Amos Hochstein mentioned Iran’s withdrawal from Syria would “make it very difficult … to transfer weapons in.”

“I definitely wouldn’t write Russia out. And I will also say the same thing about Iran,” Vakil says. “I think both countries will be looking to maybe not immediately, but over time and rekindle whatever ties they have for different purposes.”