Investing.com — In a current word, Financial institution of America outlined 14 key classes from 2024 that traders ought to have in mind as they head into 2025, warning that market momentum and stretched valuations might face headwinds within the yr forward.
Whereas this yr resembled the regular positive aspects of 1996-97, somewhat than the bubble peaks of 1998-99, dangers are mounting—from geopolitical tensions and rising debt to market fragility highlighted by the VIX.
BofA factors to alternatives in Europe, China, and Japan however cautions that volatility, commerce disputes, and macroeconomic uncertainty will form the subsequent leg of the market cycle.
Beneath are the 14 classes that BofA highlighted.
1. 2024 was a robust yr for markets, nevertheless it may solely be the start.
2. The market’s efficiency in 2024 appeared extra just like the regular positive aspects of 1996-97 than the bubble peaks of 1998-99.
3. In a bubble setting, market management can persist for longer than traders can afford to remain underweight.
4. Nonetheless, the mix of robust momentum and excessive valuations is already too stretched to keep away from a possible bust.
5. The has proven that markets stay fragile, and a serious shock could also be overdue.
6. August 2024 suggests shopping for market dips and locking in volatility spikes; utilizing smarter methods like skewed delta positioning could also be key for 2025.
7. Rising debt ranges and chronic inflation imply bond vigilantes stay essentially the most seen macroeconomic tail danger.
8. Market fragility, quicker reactions, and elevated valuations counsel a repeat of the calm volatility seen in 2017 is unlikely.
9. A Trump election victory has reignited issues round tariffs, with European corporations favored by greenback energy doubtlessly changing into the subsequent commerce targets.
10. European equities stay low-cost and unloved—traders needs to be cautious about being caught quick, as fewer crowded trades imply much less volatility ache.
11. China’s outperformance over Japan in 2024 might proceed if U.S. rates of interest decline.
12. VIX choices information signifies that positioning dangers available in the market haven’t gone away.
13. Eurozone financial institution dividends have outperformed the for a lot of the previous yr; traders could have to hedge towards a special consequence in 2025.
14. The danger of sharp actions within the Japanese yen, pushed by volatility, might trigger instability for the in 2025.
