‘Venom 2’ Passes ‘Black Widow’ At The Domestic Box Office

In a quick “calm before the weekend storm” update, Sony’s Venom: Let There Be Carnage earned another $600,000 on Wednesday to bring its domestic cume to $184 million. That’s good enough to push it past the $183.6 million domestic total of Black Widow, making it the year’s second-biggest domestic earner. In terms of all 2020/2021 domestic releases, it sits behind only Sony’s Bad Boys for Life ($204 million in January 2020) and Disney’s Shang-Chi and the Legend of the Ten Rings ($222 million-and-counting). It’s currently at 97% of Venom’s $190 million 27-day total, meaning if that continues it’s looking at a $207 million domestic finish. And yes, pandemic or no, a sequel earning 97% of what its predecessor did is a hell of a thing.

Even if it barely crawls past $200 million, 93% is still a better retention than (offhand) Deadpool 2 ($318 million sans the PG-13 cut versus $363 million), Star Trek Into Darkness ($228 million/$256 million), The Kingsman: The Golden Circle ($100 million/$128 million) and Sherlock Holmes: A Game of Shadows ($186 million/$209 million). Yes, the MCU has turned the breakout sequel (like Guardians 2 earning 17% more than Guardians or The Winter Soldier earning 47% more than The First Avenger) into a business-as-usual development, but that’s only “normal” for the MCU. Even Spider-Man 2, earned “just” 92% ($373 million) of Spider-Man’s $402 million gross. Conventional wisdom is that a sequel earns less domestically but more overseas. I would have expected likewise for Wonder Woman 1984 in conventional circumstances.

Could the Tom Hardy/Woody Harrelson sequel have earned closer to $240 million (+15%) without Covid variables? Perhaps, but when you only cost $110 million and are nearing $400 million global, “on a Covid curve” is more than enough. The only caveat, and it’s a minor one as long as the budget is kept in check, is that Venom 3 won’t have the obvious marquee villain goosing interest the third time out. That is a similar issue with the still-unmade Sherlock Holmes 3. A Game of Shadows was still a huge hit ($545 million worldwide in 2011 versus $525 million in 2009), but you also “used up” your big “Sherlock vs. Moriarty” trump card. After you dispatch the primary villain, it’s “just another Venom movie.”

That’s part of why Star Trek Beyond struggled in 2016, with the one “everybody knows this guy” baddie (Benedict Cumberbatch as Khan) being used in Into Darkness. That’s obviously not a deal-breaker, as The Dark Knight Rises earned $448 million domestic (84% of The Dark Knight’s $533 million domestic cume) and slightly more worldwide ($1.084 billion versus $1.004 billion) despite Bane and Catwoman being less of a marquee draw than Joker and Two-Face. For all the chatter in the early days about the MCU’s lack of scene-stealing villains (I’d argue most of their baddies were “Fine, whatever”), Kevin Feige and friends emphasized the heroes and the heroic supporting cast so that the sequels didn’t really need a marquee bad guy as a prime selling point.

Tom Hardy’s specific cinematic incarnation of Eddie Brock may be popular enough that he himself is a marquee character and thus doesn’t need a “name” villain for the third go-around. Sure, we may see Venom teaming up with or fighting Tom Holland’s Peter Parker, but that may not be required. John Wick: Chapter 2 and John Wick: Chapter 3 both soared above their respective predecessors (from $88 million to $172 million to $322 million) despite each time merely being another action movie starring Keanu Reeves as John Wick. Unless Iron Man facing off against The Mandarin was seen as a Dark Knight-type situation, I’d argue Iron Man 3 doubled the $623 million gross of Iron Man 2 without offering more than “just another Iron Man movie.”

Meanwhile, Dune passed $50 million domestic on day six with a $3.1 million (-21% from Tuesday) Wednesday gross. It’ll end its first week with $54 million as it heads into weekend two mostly unopposed by Antlers, The French Dispatch and Last Night in Soho. A second-weekend gross closer to $20 million (Blade Runner 2049 dropped 52% in weekend two) than $15 million (Power Rangers dropped 64% from a $40 million opening) would be ideal. It has earned $28 million in China and will probably going to take a shellacking from No Time to Die opening today. If the domestic/overseas split remains as it was on Sunday (it earned $90 million global including $41 million domestic), Dune should be past Blade Runner 2049 ($259 million) with $268 million.